Bloomberg Swing State Polls; GOP Nominating Convention Tomorrow in Utah; Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. Passes Away

Providing you with a recap of this week’s top five news items and resources straight from our experts.

Bloomberg Swing State Polls

Bloomberg News, in partnership with the Morning Consult data organization, conducted presidential polls in all seven of the key swing states during the April 8-13 period.? The cumulative data produced very good news for Donald Trump, as he is projected to lead in six of the seven states in both head to head pairings with President Biden and when the independent and minor candidates are added to the polling questionnaire.

In the one-on-one polling series, Mr. Trump leads President Biden in a range from one (Pennsylvania) to ten (North Carolina) percentage points.? In only Michigan does President Biden have an advantage (+2).? When Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) and the minor party candidates are added, which is the more realistic ballot test, Mr. Trump’s advantage either holds or grows.? Under this scenario, his advantage stretches from one (Pennsylvania) to a whopping 14 percentage points (Nevada).? Again, under this configuration, President Biden would lead in only Michigan (+3).?

This series represents Mr. Trump’s strongest cumulative swing state showing of 2024.? The polled states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

GOP Nominating Convention Tomorrow in Utah

Utah Republican delegates convene tomorrow at the Salt Palace Convention Center in Salt Lake City to consider a large ticket of primary endorsements, the most important of which are for the open US Senate seat and Governor.? ?

In Utah, candidates can qualify for the ballot in one of two ways.? The first is to obtain 40% of the delegate vote at the state convention.? Doing so guarantees a primary ballot line for no more than two candidates.? The second way is to petition onto the ballot, which means collecting 28,000 valid registered party members’ signatures for a statewide candidacy.? For a US House race, the required signature number is 7,000 within the particular district. ? ?

Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman and podcast host Jason Walton have already qualified for the US Senate Republican primary ballot via petition signatures.? Therefore, regardless of whether these men receive the 40% delegate support necessary to advance to the primary in tomorrow’s convention, they have each secured a ballot line.? Attorney Brett Orrin Hatch, son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), submitted petitions but is approximately 7,000 signatures short of qualifying.? Thus, he can access the ballot only through the delegate process tomorrow.? ?

In the Governor’s race, the only candidate qualifying through petition is the incumbent Governor, Spencer Cox.? For the US House, 1st District Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City)? is the only incumbent to qualify through petition signatures.? The state’s other incumbents, Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City), will qualify through the delegate process.? No opponent to either Reps. Maloy or Owens has submitted petition signatures.?

Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. Passes Away

New Jersey US Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark), who suffered a heart attack on April 9th and unfortunately did not recover, passed away Wednesday.? His death means there are now six vacant congressional seats thus reducing the total membership number to 429.? ?

Since candidate filing is closed for the regular cycle and Rep. Payne is the only candidate on the ballot for the 10th District Democratic primary, he will posthumously win the nomination contest.? According to a story in the New Jersey Globe newspaper, once all candidates are certified for the general election by the June 17th deadline after the June 4th primary election, the Secretary of State will declare the seat vacant.? The various Democratic county party committee members would then meet in convention to choose a replacement nominee. ? ?

Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has leeway regarding calling a special election for purposes of filling the remainder of the current term.? He can schedule a special primary and general within the time limits proscribed by New Jersey election law, or he can make the special general concurrent with the regular election.? The 10th District is heavily Democratic, so the party’s new nomination process will decide who succeeds the late Congressman Payne.?

Pennsylvania Presidential Primary Results

Recently, there has been an uptick in President Biden’s polling numbers, particularly in the critical Great Lakes states, and the turnout pattern in last night’s Pennsylvania primary looks to verify those figures.

While we had consistently seen higher Republican turnout opposite the Democrats in the earlier primary states around the country, Wednesday in the Keystone State, approximately 100,000 more Democrats look to have voted than Republicans once all of the cast ballots are recorded.? President Biden recorded 88.8% in the Democratic primary, while former President Trump took 82.8% on the Republican side.?

Ex-Rep. Santos Drops New Bid:??

Earlier this week, expelled US Rep. George Santos (R) announced that he is dropping his Independent bid in the state’s 1st District, attempting to deny Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) re-election.? In his statement, Mr. Santos said, “I don't want to split the ticket and be responsible for handing the House to the Dems.? Staying in this race all but guarantees a victory for the Dems."? Mr. Santos may be overestimating his ability to draw votes as an Independent or minor party candidate.? ?

Rep. LaLota, in a post on X, said he believes Santos ending his candidacy means he is negotiating a plea bargain to the 23 federal charges he soon faces in trial.? In closing, Mr. Santos indicated that, "it's only goodbye for now, I'll be back."? Rep. LaLota, in a district that the new redistricting plan made slightly more Republican, is favored for re-election.??

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