‘Black Swan’ in a Flight Trip to New York

"Ladies and gentlemen, this is an announcement for United Airlines Flight UA1271 to New York, La Guardia. We are going to start boarding soon. All passengers are requested to come to gate number 16."

I was on a trip to Denver for a workshop mid-summer this year. The announcement was for my return flight on a Friday afternoon – from Denver (DEN) to New York (LGA).

It was a pleasant summer day, with mostly clear sky and temperature hovering mid 80’s when we headed for the airport. We, as in me and my colleague Bruce. We didn’t have any bag to check-in, so went straight to the security check and towards the gate after that – our carry-ons and laptops in tow. Boarding passes on our mobiles, we waited for the boarding call. “You know Bruce,” I told, “last three times I flew out of Denver there were flight delays varying between 40 mins to about 3 hour 15 to 20 minutes.” “Don’t jinx it”, Bruce said. “No way it can happen the fourth time”, I chuckled. Prompt came the announcement for boarding and we headed towards the Boeing jet waiting for us. Our flight is ‘On Time’. We took our respective seats at the flight – we had seats at different rows.

I started chatting with the guy sitting next to me, and gradually opened my laptop to check some stuff. Soon after there was an announcement that flight will be delayed due to lightning around the area and as per FAA guideline or something of that kind, no one is allowed on the tarmac currently. I started chatting with my next-seat-neighbor again and was telling each other that it’s pretty normal here in Denver during summer afternoon to have lightning and you should expect it most days. We were not much worried about the delay and started to talk about the conspiracy theories about the Denver International Airport instead. Quite fascinating ones – if you want to read those later.

It started becoming warm inside the aircraft and then it became really hot. Another announcement made that there is no option to start the air conditioner due to the prevailing condition – airlines and flight crew appreciate passengers’ patience and cooperation. Well, it started becoming unbearable with no air-condition in a flight full of passengers. Thankfully, it was over soon and the Pilot announced that we are ready to roll very soon. Air-conditions started and along with that came the sigh of relief for 150 odd passengers. The aircraft, a Boeing 737-800, indeed started to taxi out of the gate and towards the runway. It was around 6:15 PM I guess. We were delayed by almost 2 hours by then – well within my last few experiences out of this airport. I was relaxed and started reading the book – Outliers, by Malcom Gladwell.

Then the aircraft stopped midway towards its short journey towards the head of the runway. After few minutes I started figuring out that the flights from adjacent gates are moving towards runway and flying off. It was only us who seem to be stuck in the middle of the tarmac. Soon there was announcement from the First Officer that one of the two radios on flight is not working and they have thus not cleared to take off. We need to head back to the gate – Gate 16 at Terminal B. So here we are – back to square one. Little we knew that the ordeal was just beginning to unfold!

After a while being back at the gate, it started becoming warm again. May be this time the crew realized the patience of nearly 150 passengers have been tested enough. So, before it becomes unbearably hot, they told us to leave the aircraft till the radio is fixed by the engineers. We were not given any estimate, but were told to be around the gate. So, here we are – back to the terminal.

“Hey Bruce and Dipes, you guys are still here?” It was Clark, another of our colleagues who came for the workshop from Houston and had a late evening flight from Denver. The look on his face was that of utter disbelief that he is seeing us there, when we should about to land in New York! We told him our story that had unfolded till that time. It is funny that he was worried earlier in the day whether his flight will be on time, since a hurricane was about to hit Houston sometime past midnight. Against worse odd, his flight was truly ‘On Time’. We waved him off for his flight departing from the next gate.

While waiting at the gate, suddenly Bruce figured out that another United Airlines flight to a nearby airport (Newark, EWR) is boarding passengers from an adjacent gate. “Do you think we should check with that gate if they have seats available and can accommodate us?” – Bruce curiously asked me. I was not convinced if that would work and shrugged. “Hey, there is no harm in asking”, Bruce reiterated. I left my handbag with him and went to check at that gate. Voila! They indeed have seats and they can accommodate few passengers. I rushed back and both Bruce and I ran towards the gate, showed our boarding passes and were given seat numbers at that flight and told to show it when boarding. We were gleaming at our achievement, while I was surprised that it is even possible! We headed towards that gate – Gate 19. Just when we were about to show our boarding passes with the seat number for the new flight handwritten on it, the flight attendant at the gate started talking to someone over the walkie-talkie. To our astonishment, horror and disbelief, she told us (and couple of other passengers who were accommodated last minute in that flight) that this flight developed some technical snag and they are going to de-board the passengers. It’s not flying anytime soon. “No way it can be true” – Bruce and I just looked at each other and appeared to utter this.

Our despair soon turned into joy though – announcement from Gate 16: “Passengers of United flight UA1271, we are ready to resume boarding. Please come to gate number 16.” We felt overjoyed; despite the fact we were by then delayed by more than 4 hours, if my sense of timing didn’t fail me. We went inside the aircraft for the second time and took our respective seats again. No, this time I didn’t open my laptop, and neither did I start reading my book. Maybe it was too demanding on my mind and body by then for either of those. Or, maybe I was excited at the thought that I’d be reaching New York tonight and could still get some sleep for the night, hope for which was diminishing fast till few minutes back.

Little we knew that more ordeals (shall I say excitements, in hindsight?) were still ahead of us. After a while it was again the voice of the First Officer, telling us that engineers could not fix the radio and it is going to take some more time. However, due to curfew at La Guardia Airport (LGA) after midnight no flight is allowed to take-off or land, and it’s already too late to reach LGA before midnight. So, we may be heading to Newark (EWR) instead. We hardly cared at that point of time, as long as the damn thing becomes airborne soon.

It was not to be. Soon after, the Pilot announced that the aircraft has been grounded at least for overnight and told us to de-board and check at the gate about next course, along with profuse apology on behalf of the airlines.

Bruce and I, and so are other passengers, came out and were told to make a queue – United Airlines is going to arrange “something” for us. We were laughing at the misery we faced till that time. Yes, we were laughing. Did we really have any other option? We were at that long queue for over an hour (although it looked much longer than that), intermittently checking with the airlines agents about what they are planning exactly. One agent told us that they are trying to find some overnight accommodation for all passengers. Soon it dawned on us why don’t we check ourselves for availability at any hotel nearby for the night? We frantically searched on our mobile, but no surprise that there was none available, unless you want to go back to city, which was of course not feasible, given the time of the night and more so that they rescheduled the flight for 5:30 AM departure next morning, which gives us insufficient time to come back by the time we need to go for security check again. We suddenly thought why don’t we call Westin right at the airport and check? Who knows, against all odds, it might still have just one room available somehow? Maybe there is a cancellation and a room may have become available just 2 minutes back? It reminded me of an old ad in Indian television – “Puchhne mein kya jata hai”, roughly translated to ‘there’s nothing to lose in just asking.’ We just needed a place to sleep for last few hours of the night – it was already 10:30 PM. So, we called the hotel. It may sound too good to be true – the guy on the other side of the phone line said there is a room available. We asked him to book it immediately. He started telling the price, etc. We didn’t bother to hear all those – we were elated (again) at our fortune. I was wondering if winning a Mega Millions lottery has a better or worse odd!? We got a room for two of us to lie down for may be 4 hours and there was nothing more we could have asked for. We won a lottery, for sure.

So, we collected the Overnight Accommodation Authorization form (snippet seen here) and headed to the only restaurant open overnight at the airport – to celebrate our win! Relaxed, we spent good time at the restaurant. After all, the hotel we booked was adjacent to the restaurant only. After a sumptuous dinner, we went to check-in at the hotel, just shy of the stroke of midnight. A good night sleep (even though it would be max 3 hours) is what we deserved the least after such a horrible day after all.

“Sir, I don’t find any booking for you”, said the receptionist at the hotel. “Must be some mistake, here is my id”, said Bruce, “please check with this name.” “Yes, I can find there is a booking”, she said, “but for tomorrow night.”

‘If it’s too good to be true, it probably is’ – I learnt it the hard way that day. No, we didn’t win against a worse odd than that of Mega Millions lottery. We were in fact left with no other option but to stay at the airport and spend the night.

Ever positive we are, we felt it’s not too bad still – a gentle breeze was flowing through the open space, which had large sofa where you can easily relax, if not take a catnap in between as well. However, it started becoming cold around 1 AM, chilling enough not to hang around in the open. So, we decided to head back inside – went through the routine security check again, only one I have had where there was no line. Went back to the gate again – Gate 16 it still is. We were too tired to sit in the chairs… didn’t even realize when we fell asleep on the floor itself.

It was 5 o’clock next morning and we were expecting some announcement for boarding, since our departure is scheduled at 5:30 AM. By the way departure gate was changed to Gate 18 in the meantime. But there was no announcement for boarding. We were too exhausted to be worried by then, so hardly bothered to even check what’s going on. Only a handful of passengers were getting little restless. After half an hour we were told that because of all that happened last night, a new aircrew needed to be assembled. Even though the flight that is supposed take us back has arrived from Chicago (MDW), they are still putting together a crew for our flight UA1271. Eventually we were airborne at 8:15 AM, after a delay of 16 exciting hours.

Black Swan

Have you lost count of how many things failed in sequence? I certainly did. It was a combination of failures – some mechanical, some human and some are simply act of god. Individually, they all can fail at one time. Lightning in Denver during summer is not unheard of, mechanical snag causing flight delay is not uncommon, and booking a hotel for a wrong day is just a human error. So are the rest of the failures. But it all happening in unison, leading to a nightmare of 16 hours is certainly a Black Swan event – characterized perfectly by its absolute unpredictability, extreme rarity and severe impact, for all those fateful passengers. According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of the book ‘The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable’, and the man who popularized the term Black Swan, one can’t fully understand what causes a black swan event, or how they ultimately play out. It is also often a sequence of small events that lead to such a catastrophic situation. It is only in hindsight that human tendency tries to explain the rationale.

I am not going to try rationalizing the sequence of events that unfolded on that summer afternoon. I am just content to consider this as a Black Swan event – something that is characterized by extreme rarity. I really can’t withstand another such event – even if half of those unfold in synchrony in any of my flight trips. But, thinking positive, it certainly gave me something that I can talk about in my social circle for the rest of my life, isn’t it? And, of course, it inspired me to write another article.

I am not sure if Bruce will book a ticket in same flight with me in any future travel. Did I really jinx it?

? Dipes Biswas, 2019