The Black Sea, How Big Things Get Done, & Deploying O&G vessels in Offshore Wind Edition
John MacAskill
Accelerating renewables one ? at a time | Offshore wind & supply chain expert | Establishing & growing businesses across the offshore wind value chain | BD & marketing expert | Industry Speaker
Hello dear subscribers!
Thank you for clicking ???? and deciding to read this edition...it always appreciated and never assumed. You should know by now it is a mix of my offshore wind and general renewables & opinion??, some of our news?? and as usual some stuff on coffee? and metal????...!
What an interesting start to the year. It is amazing that even though there are massive drivers behind renewable energy deployment, we still see governments cocking things up somewhat (I'm looking at you Ireland and UK) and we are still well behind the investment needed to displace fossils. According to Equinor's Eirik W?rness?in the FT's Energy Source newsletter yesterday, we are only seeing a third of the $3.5tn needed to speed a shift away from fossil fuels to meet global climate targets.
“We’re currently spending about $400mn or $500mn a year globally in oil and gas. That’s exactly what we have to do if we’re on our way to the net zero emissions scenario,” said W?rness.
But slashing oil supply only works if an increase in clean energy infrastructure drives down oil demand at the same time — and that is not happening, says W?rness: transition investment is nowhere near the level needed to wean global economies off oil.
“This is a self-inflicted train crash in slow motion, because we don’t have the investment. It is a recipe for an energy crunch,” he said. Gulp!
So on that note...where do we start?
Well this edition brings you:
? A recent look at the Black Sea.
? My colleague 巴毅誠 Luis González-Pinto Barrenetxea 's reflections around 'How new big Offshore Wind things get done?'
? My colleague Alex Harrison 's insights on the 'Challenges and opportunities for oil & gas shipowners in transitioning to renewables'
? We look at recent news across renewables
? Our near event schedule and where you can bump into us
? Your next adventure at ABL Group!
? ...and of course some ? coffee and ???? metal with my end of year album list!
So please read on and share this with colleagues...get them to subscribe!
The Black Sea has seen a bustle of activity over the last few years as governments and pan-regional bodies author studies on its offshore wind potential to make a meaningful contribution to the energy transition in the region. The recent announcement of the EU-backed decarbonisation project named ‘Black sea floating Offshore Wind (BLOW)’ aiming to install a 5 MW floating wind turbine offshore Bulgaria and link it to a gas platform in the Black Sea shows the interest the region is garnering.??
Offshore wind is very tempting for the various stakeholders in the Black Sea region and is one of the solutions to the energy trilemma, providing sustainable electricity at a sensible price, while keeping the scale and a relatively high level of supply security. However, for the industry to reach its full potential there are a number of challenges that need to be addressed…?
A brief overview of the Black Sea region?
For those further away from Europe, the Black Sea is located between south-eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Western Asia and has a pivotal role in history. It was a busy waterway on the crossroads of the ancient world: the Balkans to the west, the Eurasian steppes to the north, the Caucasus and Central Asia to the east, Asia Minor and Mesopotamia to the south, and Greece to the southwest.?
Bordered by six countries, the Black Sea is bounded to the north by Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine, and to the east lies Russia, Georgia and Turkey. With a surface area of about 420,000 square kilometres, the Black Sea is fairly shallow at an average depth of about 160 metres.?
The benefits offshore wind power could bring to the Black Sea region?
Offshore wind power has the potential to provide a number of benefits to the Black Sea region. The region’s wind resource is suitable for economically viable offshore wind opportunities and has relatively shallow waters, making it an ideal location for large-scale wind farms. It is also relatively close to significant economic centres such as Istanbul and Bucharest, providing the opportunity to link offshore wind capacity to local and regional electricity grids.?
The development of offshore wind power in the Black Sea could also bring major economic benefits. The region has well-established industrial activity and high levels of human capital and technical expertise. Local companies and organisations are increasingly looking to diversify their resource base and benefit from the growth of the renewable energy industry.??
Potential challenges that may arise??
While there are many benefits to the development of offshore wind power in the Black Sea, there are also a number of challenges that need to be addressed. For example, the lack of consenting and permitting frameworks in the bordering countries where they may lack clarity on the legal frameworks required for offshore wind development can make it difficult for developers to secure the necessary permits and clearances from local authorities.??
In terms of grappling with the necessary policy requirements, there is a good track record. Romania re-introduced long-term Bilateral Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) in 2020 and will soon implement a CfD mechanism with first auctions this year. Prior to this legislative change, restrictions on PPAs were seen as the main obstacle preventing investments in new power generation, especially in the renewables sector. Georgia will also be implementing this to speed up renewable energy development.??
Another challenge is the political and economic risks associated with investing in the Black Sea region. Many countries lack the financial resources and expertise to secure investment for offshore wind developers, this needs to be understood in their policy formation. There is also the risk that political changes could result in disruption to projects.??
There are of course significant geo-political risks in this region; from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea to Russia’s support of separatist regions of Georgia, specifically Abkhazia. The impact of this is a disruption to the energy market by Russia’s aggression and energy ‘blackmail’. It has ensured that self-sufficiency and energy security is now a serious topic, and this will drive renewable energy development and intermarket connectivity by pushing energy security up policy agendas everywhere.?
In addition, the Black Sea is home to an abundant array of marine resources. These range from fisheries to oil and gas fields, which can put the offshore wind industry in conflict with other activities. Also, the region’s grid infrastructure is not yet advanced enough to accommodate large-scale projects.??
So, is the Black Sea ready for offshore wind power??
The answer is a resounding ‘yes’! Like all emerging markets, there are challenges and risks, but the potential that the offshore wind industry offers this region makes the effort to overcome these hurdles worthwhile.??
Offshore wind power has the potential to make a meaningful contribution to the energy transition in the Black Sea region, but to do so the lack of regulatory and policy certainty, competition with other industries for space and resources, poor grid connection, and the geopolitical risks all need to be addressed.??
It is clear that a concerted effort will be needed from all the countries of the region in order to create the right conditions for offshore wind to thrive. In the sea of opportunities, it is important to understand the conditions of your desired site, as not all sites will be economically feasible, but with the right approach and expert support, I expect to see this market and it’s projects develop.??
Our renewable energy technical advisory arm OWC , is the leading technical expert at early-stage development of offshore wind projects and markets. From desk top studies, to leasing and auction support, owner’s engineering and technical due diligence, OWC will help ensure your project is constructible and bankable. For a discussion on how we can support you, contact me or your nearest OWC team or ABL Group office in the region.?
领英推荐
My colleague and OWC Taiwan country manager 巴毅誠 Luis González-Pinto Barrenetxea recently read the book “How Big things get done” by Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg. This motivated him to consider how the insights also apply to our offshore wind industry.
"Since I devoured the magnificent book “How Big things get done” by Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg I have been thinking a lot about how these book’s principles apply to Offshore Wind projects.
The book is wonderful, and I can only recommend as it has a lot of interesting thoughts about how consistently deliver projects.??
The book provides very positive figures about wind and solar projects defining them as one of the most successful projects, in terms of budget and time schedule overruns..." Continue reading >> Link to LinkedIn article.
My colleague, ABL Group 's Director of Energy Services, Alex Harrison , recently authored an article for The Shipowners' Club discussing the trends on the ground when it comes to redeploying assets across sectors, or acquiring new assets and technology – and the challenges this presents.
Renewable energy production has been expanding across the globe for decades, and with this expansion comes a rapid growth in the shipping fleet required to build, operate and service the infrastructure. Traditional heavy lift operators that currently service the oil & gas market have an opportunity to transition here and meet the demands of renewables projects. However, issues arise across vessel availability, suitability and cost efficiency.
"Jack-up vessels are the preferred installation method for most fixed offshore wind farms (OWF). A key consideration in this regard is the number of jack-up operations needed on an average project. In O&G, a typical shallow water (50-100m) development may require 10 or so jack-up operations, but in an OWF project this number could rise to several hundred. The greater the number of jack-up operations required, the higher the additional risk, and associated costs in terms of risk assessments and assurance measures.” - Alex Harrison
The future is not all challenges though. Alex highlights a number of areas where oil & gas vessels could prove to be in high demand, if shipowners act now to be prepared and take advantage of transition opportunities:
“The further offshore that farms are positioned, the longer the cables and the larger the capacity of carousels that will be needed. Therefore, ultimately, any vessel that can safely lay cables – particularly if already fitted with sophisticated lay systems like on large O&G flowline and umbilical lay projects, or large internal carousels, will be much sought after.” Continued Alex.
Read Alex’s full article on The Shipowners’ Club: >> Link to article.
Some recent news ABL Group; from onshore energy yield, to asset maintenance via numeric modelling! Check out the news and insights and reach out if you want to know how we can help you:
Meet our renewables teams at the following events over the next month:
Be the energy behind change. At ABL Group, we recruit people who believe in our mission and want to reach their career potential in an innovative, inspiring and international environment in renewables, and the energy transition space.
Check out opportunities here...we need you! >> Your next adventure!
This edition comes to you powered by KAWA Coffee Ltd . Thanks again to KAWA founder Regan Black for his continued support of this Newsletter...it runs on coffee...
I was thinking of London coffee shops recently. Mainly because I have not found a 'favourite haunt' near our new offices in Lower Thames Street. I am sure there is one and the hunt will continue when I am next down. But I was reminiscing to myself about my old favourite, when OWC were based in Kings Street, The Host in St Mary Aldermary down Bow Lane in Cheapside. There was something so cooling and quietening going into this church, getting a coffee and sitting on a pew if the tables were taken. I read many a document or report or met a client in the place. The coffee was truly lovely and the location was just a wonderful respite from the hustle and bustle of the City.
Now, I have just googled directions and it's only 13 minutes from our new offices. So I think I have decided The Host will return as my favourite coffee haunt, with the added benefit of a 13min stroll either way. So caffeine and exercise!
So give me a shout and let's go for a coffee while I am in London, meet you at The Host! ?
and of course...
2023 and there are a few bangers of new albums already released. One of my favourites has to be the one man blackened thrash outfit from Aberdeen, Hellripper. Their last effort was like Mayhem playing Metallica's Kill'Em All. On their new album 'Warlocks Grim & Withered Hag's' is a far more nuanced affair.
Longer tracks with some more sophisticated time changes and riffs and some great hooks. being from Aberdeen they added some bagpipes brilliantly to their title track. If thrash is your thing, you need to check out this album.
if you want to check them out with some other 2023 albums, the link below is my 2023 album playlist. >> Spotify Playlist.
Well that's it for this edition.
Thanks for spending some time reading it. Please subscribe, comment, and share with colleagues.
So stay safe, enjoy life, and catch you next time and at events in the real world. ????
Cheers
John MacAskill, Global Managing Director Renewables ( ABL Group )
Head of Offshore Wind Energy - Associa??o Brasileira de Energia Eólica e Novas Tecnologias | PhD in Strategy and Innovation | Autor do Livro: Inova??o e Sustentabilidade para a Transi??o Energética
1 年Wonderful text!
ECHT Corporate Strategy & Relationships Lead
1 年Dr Murat Durak
Delivering Offshore Wind EIA and Consents
1 年John, always an interesting read - right riveting and all that. Best wishes
Chief Transformation Officer at ABL Group, Top 50 Women in Engineering, Offshore Wind & Energy Transition Leader
1 年John MacAskill - you're an absolutely incredible. John has been masterminding the announcement for acquisition of AGR, travelling to Asia to visit colleagues and speak about #offshorewind, generally keeping up with his day job and *still* manages to publish an interesting and insightful blog.
Climate and Energy Diplomacy/ Offshore Wind
1 年Thanks for sharing John MacAskill enjoy reading these with a cup a tea (still enjoying the coffee talk though). Interesting update on BLOW Malte Paul have a read of this. Agree on the point re UK and Ireland let’s talk off line to really vent!