B&K Newsletter: War economy ASAP

From an all-British faded memory to an Italian political drama to Breton’s literal artillery – this is what the continent has been talking about this week.?

In today’s special supplement on the Turkish election, we try to figure out what happens in the presidency handover. Spoiler? No one knows.?

Brexit means no Brexit?

The great bonfire of EU regulations and directives that Boris Johnson's government had promised to mark the UK's final break with the EU will not happen, in the latest series of decisions that show that Brexit will not be a… Brexit.?

PM Rishi Sunak will abandon its plans to revise or scrap all EU legislation by the end of 2023: most of the nearly 4000 pieces of EU legislation introduced since 1973 will remain in UK law. At most, 800 regulations and directives will be removed by the end of the year. Why? The end-of-year deadline had alarmed the public sector, business associations and trade unions, who felt that the bonfire of EU legislation would lead to significant uncertainty and the possible loss of fundamental rights and protections.?

The decision to backtrack on the great bonfire of legislation demonstrates Sunak's pragmatic approach to his relations with the EU. Last week opened with rumours of the British PM's intention to take another small step to bring the UK back into the EU cooperation mechanisms. After the controversy over the long queues in Dover and Calais for tourists who spent their Easter holidays on the continent, the Sunak government would like to negotiate a deal with Brussels to allow citizens with British passports to use 'e-gates' to enter and leave the EU. British diplomats would have already informally raised the issue with their European counterparts. Sunak reportedly plans to discuss it with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the G7 summit in Japan in May. However, the duo will meet as early as Saturday for the coronation of King Charles III (they all say true love waits).?

Much ado about nothing.?

Should I stay or should I go??

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will soon face one of her most potentially economically costly foreign policy choices, only seven months into the job. She’s widely expected to decide whether to terminate an agreement on Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, signed in 2019 by the then Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte. While technically, the EU’s third-largest economy has until the end of the year to let Beijing know what it thinks about the giant infrastructure (and influence) projects, senior officials from both sides of the Atlantic are now expecting Giorgia to signal which way Rome will go by the time she attends the G7 summit in Hiroshima with U.S. President Joe Biden, in less than three weeks. All roads lead to Rome, but you need to pick up a side once there.?

Exiting the memorandum of understanding is politically desirable for the right-wing PM and (solid) coalition, keen to prove herself a trusted Euro-Atlantic partner and firmly position the ECR party (the house of Conservatives in the European Parliament) given the next year’s European elections. After all, Italy is the only G7 country to have acceded to China’s program since 2019, when Italy was governed by the populist Five Stars Movement in coalition with the far-right Matteo Salvini’s League: a chaotic order, to be kind. However, leaving the Belt and Road also brings economic uncertainty, given Beijing’s almost-certain displeasure and possible (aka sure) retaliatory actions.?

To add some sparkles, the divorce would be even more dramatic because the memorandum stipulates an automatic renewal without the need to renegotiate it every year.?

Oh, Mamma Mia.?

War economy ASAP?

Yesterday, Thierry Breton, the French EU commissioner for the internal and single market, unveiled his plan to mobilise the EU budget to ramp up the production of missiles and ammo.?

The Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) will pour some €500 million from the EU budget into European shell factories to boost weapons manufacturing. The EU has pledged to deliver 1 million shells to Kyiv before the end of the year, and Breton is determined to have the totality produced on EU soil.?

A lot is riding on that pledge: on the one hand, there’s Russia’s attempted full-scale invasion of Ukraine — and Kyiv will soon launch a counter-offensive aimed at dislodging the occupiers from key centres in its south and southeast.?

On the other hand, Breton and others (read, Macron) conceive the war as a chance to bolster Europe’s defence industry and take a step toward strategic autonomy (sweet dreams are made of this).?

The ability of the European Union to provide ammunition to Ukraine has become a significant test of its credibility. Still, your favourite storyteller – sceptic and intrinsically reality-abiding in his nature – believes that a huge problem is not addressed yet: how do we move these weapons? This situation requires further efforts and innovative approaches, especially as the issue is not limited to artillery rounds but covers the entire range of ammunition, from anti-tank missiles to air defence systems and, soon, to spare parts for the weapon systems delivered.?

As always, facts don’t care about your feelings.?

Diplo focus: Turkish election?

After two decades, Erdo?an’s undisputed hegemony over an entire nation may end on May 14. Years of unorthodox economic policy and a deadly February earthquake have undermined confidence in the government, leading many voters to question the reputation for competent administration that has traditionally been central to The Reis’ appeal.?

Polls suggest that a defeat may be around the corner. However, much of the anxiety surrounding Turkey’s presidential contest lies in how Erdo?an will respond to its results. This is a consequence of his unique position in Turkish political history. It is hard to imagine Erdo?an gracefully accepting defeat simply because it would be unprecedented: no Turkish president has ever been directly voted out of office before him.?

Not only Erdo?an has been Turkey’s first directly elected president in the history of the country, but he has also overseen the country’s transformation from a parliamentary to a presidential system in 2017, giving him a strategic advantage over his contenders in terms of knowledge of the machinery of the Turkish establishment.?

While many of Erdo?an’s eleven predecessors came and went without tumults, the few who - like him - were backed by a mass political party tended to remain in office until they were militarily removed or faced an “unexpected” death (with the only exception of Inonu in 1950, who left power in a chaotic transition). Erdo?an is unique because he has state control and a sizable following that does not want to see him relinquish power.?

In short: for Erdo?an, being the first to achieve this much power has required vision, imagination, and a dose of an unconventional show of force. The question is whether he can also imagine being the first to give it up.??

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