B&K Newsletter: Birthday Gift from Berlin

From the new French revive to the best ever gift from Berlin to Czech paradigm shift — this is what the continent has been talking about this week.?

Vive la Ravivé?

As Angela Merkel exits the scene, Macron has been drawing up new plans for European partnerships. During the early signs of her exit, in 2021, Macron signed the "Trattato del Quirinale" with the former Italian PM Mario Draghi. This week we have seen another sliver of that plan: Sánchez and Macron decide to revitalize the Franco-Spanish relationship by signing a new Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation.??

Keep in mind, Spain is the fourth largest economy in the EU and the only other trade agreement they have is with Portugal in the early days of their EU membership. So, it is fair to say that it is a big step for both parties.?

The agreement was very much contested by the Catalan groups in Madrid since it plays into the central government’s hand to tighten European relations.??

This gameplay makes everyone think that France will say au revoir to the Treaty of Aachen and leave Germany without a clear ally in Europe. We will yet to see if Macron’s legacy will alienate Germany into its corner.?

Birthday Gift from Berlin?

Yesterday was the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s birthday, and we believe it will be remembered by the Ukrainians for many years to come. In an address to Germany’s parliament, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced to send German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine after a long geopolitical squabbling. ??

The decision came after a long series of talks and a lot of pressure from the other side of the Atlantic. The announcement is likely to be matched by the US; Washington signaled it was finalizing plans to send approximately 30 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. The German army has 320 Leopard 2 tanks in its possession but does not reveal how many would be battle ready, as expected.??

The Russian embassy in Berlin released a statement that Germany is letting go of a historic responsibility to Russia, and this move will escalate the conflict to a new level almost certainly.?

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Wednesday that Germany had made the "right decision", and France’s Macron welcomed the new developments.?

During the week, former British PM Boris Johson has again visited Ukraine where he received the honorary citizenship in Kyiv and addressed students together with Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy. Most mischievous commentators increasingly think that BoJo is preparing his return for 2024.?

Babi?: Panic Mode?

We have covered the Czech presidential elections last week. This weekend will be the second and last round of the elections in Czechia, and Babi? does not seem very strong—at least, not anymore. He has been the spinster of Czech politics for almost a decade and dragged the country towards an EU-skeptic line over the course of years.?

His influence seems to be dying down recently. According to Politico’s Poll of Polls, his opposition Petr Pavel who is a pro-western pro-EU retired NATO general has an 8% advantage over him. The difference can be explained through many national factors, but at least one of them is brought to him by his own self.?

During a presidential debate, Babi? said that he does not see Czech support to any of the neighboring NATO allies if they would be under a hypothetical attack from Russia. Later on Twitter, he had to backtrack from that statement and claimed, that “he never questioned NATO’s collective defense but wouldn’t want to imagine a third world war happening.”??

The arduous sentence to the Czech people.?

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