BJP most likely to win Odisha in 2019

by Sharath Chandra (Consultant at The Campaign360), edited by Subhash Chandra

The emergence of BJP in Panchayat polls can be seen as a symbol for change. The people are willing to opt for an alternative to BJD. BJP could be the most likely chosen party in the next poll 2019 as most backward states are as of now being ruled by BJP and are quite successful in projecting themselves as pro development.

A combination of a stronger party base, a strong leader in Dharmendra Pradhan, 20 years of anti-incumbency and softly exploiting the historic grouses of population outside the Coastal districts has enabled the BJP come up with this historic performance in the Panchayat polls.

Recent history of the BJP in Odisha

Across the State there appears to be a shift of votes from Congress to the BJP. The BJP is now increasingly seen as the primary opposition to the BJD and the voter confusion on who can challenge the BJD has finally ended.

BJP has been in alliance with BJD in 1998, 1999 and 2004 elections together, won the State polls in 2000 and 2004. In 2009 the alliance broke up and the major turning point for BJP came in 2014 Loksabha election where the party won 21% vote share.

What happened in the Panchayat election?

Across the State there appears to be a shift of votes from Congress to the BJP. The BJP is now increasingly seen as the primary opposition to the BJD and the voter confusion on who can challenge the BJD has finally ended.

Major Trends

In the absence of vote share data, we use seat shares and 2014 assembly election data to derive some major trends.

Firstly, using a simple method, if one were to simulate the ZP elections to the assembly elections (assuming similar results in the urban centres as well), BJD will end up with just 78 seats, a slim majority. Key takeaways

a.    BJD retains its key coastal base, BJP makes small headway

BJP won just 59 out of 346 ZPs in the coastal district but 241 out of the 500 ZPs outside the Coastal districts. The Congress party on the other hand won 57 out of its 60 ZPs outside the Coastal districts. This indications a direct alienation farther away from the capital Bhubaneswar

b.    Western Odisha, BJP beats BJD thoroughly

c.    Tribal Odisha, BJP and BJD fight a tie

Among the Border districts BJP won 169 out of 437 ZPs and among the non- border ZP’s BJP won 128 out of 409.

The decrease in the Vote share of Congress party is turning out to be advantageous for the BJP which is clearly visible in the recent Panchayat polls.

The Border district phenomenon

In a previous article by my colleague Subhash Chandra, he pointed out to 47 seats that were vulnerable for the BJD and many of them were at the border of Odisha. My own analysis shows that amongst the Border districts, according to 2014 elections, BJD crossed 40% vote share mark in only 4 districts where as in non-border districts BJD managed to gain 40% Vote share in all districts except 4.

Among the Border districts BJP is increasing its presence as most of the border States of Orissa are ruled by the State. When we compared the performance of the Odisha border districts with the Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand ones, the performance of the MP and Chhattisgarh districts were better. The data indicates the growing income levels of people among the border districts where only 1 district is from Odisha. Neighboring BJP ruled states has delivered better performance than Odisha where voters could easily sense their living standards and opt for BJP in the upcoming 2019 Odisha polls.

2016-17 versus 2012-13 (Reserve Bank of India deposits)

Just one out of the 11 Odisha border districts was in the top 5. On the other hand, 3 out of 11 Odisha districts were in the bottom 5. BJP swpt Malkangiri winning 10 out of the 13 Zilla Parishads.

If one were to consider a shorter period, Odisha gets better but only a little bit

RBI deposits data, 2016-17 versus 2014-15

If we look at Panchayat polls also people have given a decent mandate to BJP in Sundargarh where BJD has won 14 & BJP has won 13 and indicating symbol that they would back BJP as earlier BJP has secured 0 seats in 2012. BJP did extremely well in Malkangiri as well.

The BJP has not been able to take full advantage of Keonjhar or Rayagada but on the other hand they have done well in Bargarh which has done well over the last two years.

Overall, one could say that the BJP has exploited the traditional conflict between the Coastal districts and rest of Odisha quite well through a mix of diligent grassroot work and showcasing its capabilities in the neighbouring districts.

Other Advantages for BJP

1.   17 years rule and growing anti-incumbency against the BJD.

2.   Odisha is yet underdeveloped despite 17 years rule and availability of resources. While its education systems are way better than all its neighbours, it struggles on per capita income growth due to availability of adequate opportunities within the States. The bulk of districts outside the coastal districts appear to be underperforming the coastal districts by a huge margin

3.   No secondary leadership in BJD – Naveen Patnayak is the only face

4   BJD seems to be non-proactive with the center which made clear when the Government has failed to convey and convince its stand on Polavaram.

All these factors could be advantageous for the BJP along with its recent victories across the Major States BJP seems to be in a comfortable position for winning 2019 Odisha state.

Next steps for BJP in Odisha

In order to win 2019 assembly, BJP will have to make progress in the coastal belt. These districts make up for 65 out of the 147 constituencies. BJD won 58 of these seats out of its tally of 117 seats. BJD needs to win 74 seats to return to power. BJP’s performance was sub-par here even during the panchayat electionand unless it can win some of the urban cities here, it is unlikely to win Odisha in 2019. BJP is likely to focus its attention on Kendrapara, Bhadrak and Khurdha and the Urban centres which could together yield 10-15 seats and the State in 2019. The recent riots in Bhadrak could prove to be advantageous for the BJP. If it could win 50 out of the 80 border seats and about 15 out of the 65 costal districts, it could come close to winning a majority.

Will local CM face matter?

The local leader face is not at all a concern for BJP as BJP did not have a face in Maharashtra or Haryana and still won with an absolute majority and most voters expressed their trust with the Symbol. There is an increasing fatigue for Naveen Patnaik and at the end this could serve them well

Can BJD comeback to power in 2019?

BJD could just about return back to power in 2019. The BJD has performed poorly in the border districts but the fact remains that most of the border districts income performance is in the middle. They could still persuade voters with all kinds of offers for the next two years. While the income growth gaps exist versus other State's border districts, the gaps are not substantial. While Naveen was seen as a boring leader, none of the corruption scams have touched him personally. None of the BJP leaders come anywhere close to him in terms of credibility. It would be therefore interesting to note if the BJP will turn the screws personally on Naveen Patnaik, that would completely change the game against BJD in Odisha. In the meanwhile we wait and watch the chess moves in Odisha.

Please read our precious two articles on Odisha here and here