Bitwise Predictions: The 2024 Scorecard

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By Matthew Hougan

Examining the past year in crypto helps you imagine the year ahead.

Each year, the Bitwise team gets together to make its annual predictions about the future of crypto. The process involves hours of discussion, debate, and reflection among a dozen-plus team members. It’s one of the most exciting things we do each year.

We’ll be releasing our 2025 predictions on December 10. Hint: We think 2025 is going to be wild. But before we get to next year’s predictions, it pays to look back and see how we did in 2024.

Setting the Scene: A Look Back at December 2023

First, let’s set the scene.?

We published our 2024 predictions on December 12, 2023. Crypto was in a very different place at the time. Bitcoin was trading at $43,750, and anti-crypto rhetoric was running hot in Washington, D.C. Just days before our 2024 predictions were published, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon testified at a congressional hearing that he had always been “deeply opposed to crypto, bitcoin, etc.” And then: “If I was the government, I’d close it down.”

It’s amazing how far we’ve come. Bitcoin is now trading near $100,000, pro-crypto politicians dominate Washington, and Wall Street firms are eagerly building in the space. But none of this was obvious in December 2023 when we laid down our predictions for the year.

Let’s see how we did.

2024 Prediction 1: Bitcoin will trade above $80,000, setting a new all-time high.

Likely Result: CORRECT

We nailed this one. Bitcoin crossed $80,000 in November and kept going, trading today near $100,000. Our thesis at the time—that the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF and the bitcoin halving would combine to lift prices higher—was exactly right.

We’ll reveal our 2025 price target next week, with added price targets for Ethereum and Solana. Stay tuned.

Prediction 2: Spot bitcoin ETFs will be approved, and collectively will be the most successful ETF launch of all time.

Likely Result: CORRECT

This is in the win column, too. Spot bitcoin ETFs, which were approved in January, have become by far the most successful ETF launches of all time. As of December 1, 2024, bitcoin ETFs have attracted $31 billion in inflows. The previous record for “most successful ETF launch of all time” was the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which came to market in 1999 and pulled in $5 billion in assets in its first year. Gold ETFs gathered less than $2 billion in their first year. Bitcoin ETFs have done multiples of that flow and are still growing.

Prediction 3: Coinbase’s revenue will double, beating Wall Street expectations [on its earnings] by at least 10x.

Likely Result: CORRECT

This is going to be close. Coinbase posted revenues of $3.1 billion in 2023, and has done $4.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2024. Can it get to $6.2 billion by year-end? I think so. Q4 is turning out to be an exceptional quarter for crypto.

Coinbase remains one of the most fascinating—and in our view, undervalued—companies in the world. We have a number of Coinbase-linked predictions coming next week as well.

Prediction 4: More money will settle using stablecoins than using Visa.

Likely Result: INCORRECT

Globally, stablecoins settled $5.1 trillion in the first six months of 2024, up substantially from year-ago levels. But they haven’t caught up with Visa, which settled $6.5 trillion over the same time period. Close but no cigar.?

Prediction 5: JPMorgan will tokenize a fund and launch it on-chain as Wall Street gears up to tokenize real-world assets.

Likely Result: INCORRECT

I really wanted this one to come true. It would have been sweet irony to see JPMorgan—whose CEO was railing to Washington about “shutting down” crypto—tokenize its own funds.

And we were close! Wall Street tokenizing funds was a big theme in 2024. BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, Guggenheim, UBS, Société Générale, and others took the leap. And JPMorgan invested heavily in tokenization itself, rebranding its own tokenization platform and labeling tokenization “next-generation financial infrastructure.” But the firm didn’t actually launch a fund, so we can’t claim victory here.

Prediction 6: Ethereum revenue will more than double to $5 billion as users flock to crypto applications.

Likely Result: INCORRECT

We were way off here. Activity on Ethereum-based applications rose significantly in 2024, but revenue is likely to end the year slightly below last year’s $2 billion. Why? Ethereum’s “Dencun” upgrade in March cut fees on the network by 99%. We ultimately think this will be good for the network, but the short-term hit to revenues has been challenging.

Prediction 7: Taylor Swift will launch NFTs to connect with fans in new ways.

Likely Result: INCORRECT

This didn’t happen, but it remains a space to watch in 2025. Taylor has reportedly been concerned about whether NFTs are securities. If we get better regulatory clarity on NFTs in the year ahead, this one could be back on the docket.

Prediction 8: AI assistants will use crypto to pay for things online, affirming crypto as “the native currency of the internet.”

Likely Result: CORRECT

In July, legendary venture capitalist Marc Andreessen gave $50,000 in bitcoin to an AI bot named Truth Terminal. That bot ultimately helped promote a meme coin—Goatseus Maximus (GOAT)—which is currently worth $674 million. We suspect AI bots will use crypto and stablecoins extensively in the years to come. Wild as it was, the GOAT experiment offers an amazing proof of concept.

Prediction 9: More than $100 million will be staked in prediction markets as they emerge as a new “killer app” for crypto.

Likely Result: CORRECT

Of all our predictions, this is the one I’m most proud of.

In December 2023, few people had heard of Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market where users can bet on the outcome of global events. But we were fans of the platform and thought it could take off as the U.S. election approached. Boy, were we right: Total amounts staked on the platform jumped from $8 million when we made our forecast to more than $500 million at peak levels. Polymarket became a household name in the process. It also proved especially prescient in the 2024 elections.

In our 2025 predictions piece, we’ll predict the next breakthrough crypto app.

Prediction 10: A major upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain will drive the average transaction cost below $0.01, paving the way for more mainstream uses.

Likely Result: CORRECT*

I’m going to count this one. The average transaction cost on many Ethereum Layer 2 networks is down 90%+ year-over-year, currently hovering somewhere between $0.01 and $0.02. But it dipped below $0.01 this summer, and I’m confident we’ll get there again soon as the underlying tech continues to improve. Sub-penny transactions on major blockchains will change the world.

Bonus Prediction: 1 in 4 financial advisors will allocate to crypto in client accounts by the end of 2024.

Likely Result: TBD

Each year, we survey financial advisors to find out how many have exposure to crypto in client accounts. In 2023, only 11% said “yes.” The year-end 2024 survey is still underway, so we don’t know yet if we’ll get to the 25% level. One potential headwind: Major wirehouses like Wells Fargo, UBS, and Merrill Lynch have yet to approve spot bitcoin ETFs. But we think this is a matter of when, not if.

Conclusion

So how’d we do? Six right, four wrong, and one up in the air. Considering how aggressive our predictions were—bitcoin’s price doubling, prediction markets soaring, Ethereum’s fees falling by 99%, all of it happening in a fast-moving space—we’ll take it.

But make no mistake: We’re aiming even higher in 2025. Stay tuned.

Risks and Important Information

No Advice on Investment; Risk of Loss: Prior to making any investment decision, each investor must undertake its own independent examination and investigation, including the merits and risks involved in an investment, and must base its investment decision—including a determination whether the investment would be a suitable investment for the investor—on such examination and investigation.

Crypto assets are digital representations of value that function as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value, but they do not have legal tender status. Crypto assets are sometimes exchanged for U.S. dollars or other currencies around the world, but they are not currently backed nor supported by any government or central bank. Their value is completely derived by market forces of supply and demand, and they are more volatile than traditional currencies, stocks, or bonds.

Trading in crypto assets comes with significant risks, including volatile market price swings or flash crashes, market manipulation, and cybersecurity risks and risk of losing principal or all of your investment. In addition, crypto asset markets and exchanges are not regulated with the same controls or customer protections available in equity, option, futures, or foreign exchange investing.

Crypto asset trading requires knowledge of crypto asset markets. In attempting to profit through crypto asset trading, you must compete with traders worldwide. You should have appropriate knowledge and experience before engaging in substantial crypto asset trading. Crypto asset trading can lead to large and immediate financial losses. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position quickly at a reasonable price.

The opinions expressed represent an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results, and are subject to further discussion, completion and amendment. The information herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. You should consult your accounting, legal, tax or other advisors about the matters discussed herein.