Bitcoin's Resilience: Navigating Dominance and Diminishing Returns
Bitcoin is the world's leading cryptocurrency, making up over 53.4% of the total market capitalization. Initially, Bitcoin was nearly the only cryptocurrency, with dominance close to 100%. Over time, this dominance has fluctuated due to the rise of altcoins, changing investor sentiment, technological developments, and market cycles.
The introduction of altcoins like Litecoin and Ripple in 2014 began to reduce Bitcoin's dominance, but it still remained above 80-90% for a while. By 2017, the surge of altcoins and ICOs, especially Ethereum, caused Bitcoin's dominance to drop to about 37%.
From 2018 to 2019, Bitcoin's dominance ranged between 60-70%. The rise of DeFi and NFTs further reduced it to around 40% by mid-2021 as investors diversified.
Today, Bitcoin faces challenges from new blockchain solutions and expanding altcoin use cases, yet it remains strong as "digital gold." We'll explore where Bitcoin stands today in terms of market dominance and its returns compared to other assets.
It’s bitcoin’s market again
Bitcoin dominance is an important metric for understanding the overall health of the cryptocurrency market. Investors monitor it to gain insights into the market's current state.
This crypto cycle was confirmed with Bitcoin prices reaching new all-time highs before halving for the first time in history. However, we've experienced five months of stagnation as prices gradually declined from this early peak.
These months of pullbacks, fake-outs, and volatility have led to a rise in Bitcoin's market dominance. During economic uncertainty or market volatility, investors often view Bitcoin as a safer asset compared to altcoins.
????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Positive regulatory news, increased institutional investment, and broader economic trends, such as inflation concerns or currency devaluation, have boosted investor confidence, leading to a rise in Bitcoin's price performance.
??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Bitcoin's Strong Performance Despite Diminishing Returns
In its early days, Bitcoin delivered remarkable returns due to its low starting price and potential for growth. For example, in 2011, Bitcoin's price surged from just a few cents to about $20, achieving returns of over 30,000%. However, expecting similar gains today is unrealistic, given Bitcoin's current maturity and higher price levels. As the market has matured, it's harder for Bitcoin to grow as quickly as it did in the early days. Nowadays, the returns are more in line with those of more established asset classes.
Since 2022, Bitcoin's annual returns have remained below 100%, highlighting the shift from its previous explosive growth.?
Despite this period of stagnation, Bitcoin's performance over the past year has outpaced most major assets, with the exception of Nvidia. Additionally, Bitcoin provides strong risk-adjusted returns, indicating that, while its growth may be slower, it remains a competitive investment choice compared to other assets.
领英推荐
Bitcoin is doing better than other assets because of a few reasons. Many investors see it as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, especially with concerns about fiat currency losing value. More institutions are buying into Bitcoin , which adds to its credibility. Its limited supply due to halving events makes it scarce, increasing its value as demand rises, and technological improvements and a supportive regulatory environment also make it more attractive.
There is also the thin market liquidity , which suggests that Bitcoin still has significant growth potential. By the end of July, Bitcoin's value had increased by 53%, which is in line with its typical growth patterns. This means there's no need for concern about the recent lack of price action since March; Bitcoin is behaving as expected.
??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
For Bitcoin to move to its next growth phase, it will likely need a macroeconomic trigger. As Bitcoin becomes more established as an asset for institutions and some nations, macroeconomic factors play a more important role in its performance.
At the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Jerome Powell indicated that interest rates would remain stable but mentioned the possibility of rate cuts later this year, potentially in September. Rate cuts usually boost market liquidity, and risk assets like Bitcoin tend to benefit from increased liquidity, as historical trends have shown.
???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
From a long-term perspective, several signs indicate that Bitcoin is just starting to gain momentum:
Although there are challenges ahead, these obstacles present opportunities for investors who recognize Bitcoin's long-term potential.
Bitcoin's adoption pattern is similar to the Internet's early days. In 1999, the Internet had 250 million users, and today it boasts over 4 billion. If Bitcoin continues on this path, it could reach over 1 billion investors by 2027.
Holding onto your investments through ups and downs isn't easy, but that's what makes it potentially rewarding. It takes strong belief, emotional steadiness, and the ability to handle financial hits.? Currently, the demand for Bitcoin is relatively low compared to its global potential. Adoption often happens in waves, and the next surge could be the most significant yet.
???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by Greythorn Asset Management Pty Ltd (ABN 96 621 995 659) (Greythorn). The information in this presentation should be regarded as general information only rather than investment advice and financial advice. It is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. In preparing this document Greythorn did not take into account the investment objectives, financial circumstance or particular needs of any recipient who receives or reads it. Before making any investment decisions, recipients of this presentation should consider their own personal circumstances and seek professional advice from their accountant, lawyer or other professional adviser. This presentation contains statements, opinions, projections, forecasts and other material (forward looking statements), based on various assumptions. Greythorn is not obliged to update the information. Those assumptions may or may not prove to be correct. None of Greythorn, its officers, employees, agents, advisers or any other person named in this presentation makes any representation as to the accuracy or likelihood of fulfilment of any forward looking statements or any of the assumptions upon which they are based. Greythorn and its officers, employees, agents and advisers give no warranty, representation or guarantee as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this presentation. None of Greythorn and its officers, employees, agents and advisers accept, to the extent permitted by law, responsibility for any loss, claim, damages, costs or expenses arising out of, or in connection with, the information contained in this presentation. This presentation is the property of Greythorn. By receiving this presentation, the recipient agrees to keep its content confidential and agrees not to copy, supply, disseminate or disclose any information in relation to its content without written consent.