Bitcoin’s Move Ahead of U.S. Election

Delivered each Friday, The Weekly Shift gives you actionable insights into the crypto market without the BS.

Hey LinkedIn,

Bitcoin just broke $72,300 for the first time since March. We cover what this means ahead of next week's U.S. election. ??

Why It’s So Important

BTC had been trading within a range for the last 34 weeks. If BTC breaks out of this range to the upside, expect the next leg of the bull market to be underway.

BTC Dominance Hits April 2021 High

BTC dominance (BTC.D) hit 60.2%, the highest level in 3.5 years.

BTC.D is a key metric because its cycle top usually correlates with the start of an altcoin season (i.e. a rotation into other cryptocurrencies).

It continues to showcase Bitcoin’s strength and that we’re still in the Bitcoin growth phase of the crypto cycle, but we’re starting to reach the upper limits. (For context, last cycle, BTC.D topped at ~65%)

Signs of an Ongoing Accumulation

We see two data points hinting at holders' ongoing accumulation before next week's U.S. election.

1. The world's largest derivatives marketplace, CME hit a record high in open interest of $12.26B. It’s up 36% in the last two weeks alone.
2. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows had their strongest daily net inflows since June. These inflows were also the third highest to date.

They all point to a similar story: the market seems to be accumulating BTC, and it is ready for a potential resumption of this bull market.

The U.S. Election Less Than A Week Away

Next week, the U.S. election will finally end months of market uncertainty.

After all, Trump has promised some quite proactive crypto policies, such as creating a strategic BTC reserve by not selling the nearly 1% of total BTC supply held by U.S. authorities.

Either way, whoever wins might not be that important for Bitcoin, as the U.S. is facing a debt crisis that neither side has a solution for.

The important thing is that uncertainty will finally be over, and this could pave the way for the rest of the bull market into 2025.

See our early October newsletter for our election analysis and how we’ve played this.

Expect Volatility, Punch Your Ticket

We expect added volatility, especially if BTC fails to reach a new all-time high.

One reason for the surge in price could be the market pricing in a Trump win, which could create a sell-the-news event in the short term.

The plan could be just to keep it simple rather than trying to be a trader and 'time' the election volatility.

Remember the long game and ensure you’ve packed your bags for a potential move higher and resumption of the bull market into 2025.

Click below for our weekly wrap-up (or click here )!

MicroStrategy & Tether continue BTC accumulation

What happened? MicroStrategy revealed its '21/21 plan' to raise another $42B to buy more BTC. It comes as Tether said it now owns ~$6B worth of BTC (~82,454 BTC) for diversification purposes.

Why does it matter to you? It's hard to underestimate the level of demand this creates, and it pales in comparison to the 450 BTC (~$32.5M) that is mined per day.

Emory University first American college to invest in Bitcoin ETF

What happened? As per to a recent regulatory filing, the university has accumulated $15M worth of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Why does it matter to you? This makes Emory the first college endowment to report holding a spot Bitcoin ETF. While the figure is relatively small, it signals growing interest in crypto by large institutional investors.

Kraken to launch its own Ethereum L2

What happened? Leading centralised exchange Kraken announced Ink, an Ethereum L2 expected to go live in early 2025. Ink uses Optimism's OP Stack and will be part of Optimism's ecosystem dubbed the ‘Superchain’.

Why does it matter to you? It's a small win for Ethereum, with some of the largest exchanges choosing to build within its ecosystem (although it did get a $42M grant from Optimism to do so). It previews what the future of crypto may look like, with businesses moving more of their business and products on the chain.

? Is Microsoft Investing in BTC? There’s some misinformation that Microsoft's board has tabled a proposal to discuss adding BTC as a treasury-reserved asset.

This is more fiction than fact. An individual shareholder put it on the agenda (which anyone can do), and the Microsoft board came out and advised shareholders to vote against it.

So, it doesn’t look like it'll happen anytime soon.

• Hyperlane created ‘Superlane’ to bring immediate Superchain interconnectivity.
• LidoDAO voted to activate its community staking module, a milestone in its decentralisation journey.
• Mantle mETH launched a token airdrop.
• Jito restaking phase 1 is now open for deposits, and the DAO introduced a proposal to start taking a share of fees.
• Infinex raised $67.7M in an NFT sale, with investment from industry leaders and Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund.
• Grass held its much anticipated Solana-based token airdrop
• SOL hit a new high against the SOL/ETH pair, showing its continued dominance.
• Base security is improving, with fault proofs coming on October 30.
• Arbitrum activated ‘Fast Withdrawals’, eliminating the 7-day window.
• Stacks launched its much anticipated Nakamoto upgrade.
• Swell will switch from Polygon to Optimism’s OP Stack.

Thanks to everyone who came out to celebrate our 4th birthday Thursday night!

It's truly humbling to see everyone's faces and support throughout the journey—we look forward to many more!

Thanks for reading the Weekly Shift.

We hope you've enjoyed it, and look forward to seeing you next week!

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