Bitcoin at a Turning Point after a Solid Rally: Consolidation or Correction?
Introduction On March 2, 2025, Bitcoin recorded a notable bullish move, closing the session with an increase of around 9.53%. This rise was driven by an unexpected announcement from former President Donald Trump related to the cryptocurrency market. Below, we analyze the key factors defining Bitcoin’s current scenario and short- and medium-term outlook.
1. Recent Move and Daily Close
2. Importance of the Next Session and Following Days
3. Parallel with a Pattern from March 2023
4. Bitcoin Dominance in the Market
5. Gaps with CME Futures When the CME futures market closes at a certain price and reopens with a significant jump, a “gap” is created that, in many cases, the price tends to “fill” later.
Implications for the Derivatives Market:
6. Strategy in the Face of Increased Volatility? Last week, we recommended a long straddle because volatility had dropped considerably. However, given the current rise, a long straddle has become too expensive. Due to this high cost and the current uncertainty, it will be necessary to wait for Bitcoin to revisit equilibrium zones again (such as the $96,000 level) or to make confirmation moves, whether bullish or bearish.
On the other hand, an iron condor, although considerably cheaper, can be really risky, since in a context of such high volatility, even if premiums may be more affordable, the price could fall into areas too far away, resulting in losses.
Conclusion The strong rebound on March 2, 2025, places Bitcoin at a crossroads. Although some sentiment indicators point to greater optimism, others remain in cautious territory, showing a still undecided market.
Key Points to Monitor:
If the price manages to achieve a sustained close above the resistance levels, the bullish scenario is strengthened, and a new flow of institutional and retail investment could be activated. Otherwise, if BTC quickly retraces and loses support levels, it will become clear that the recent surge was more circumstantial than structural.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investments carry risk.
About Author
SpreadGreg is a distinguished Principal Trader and CEO at GP Asset Management LLC in Chicago, with over 11 years of professional trading experience and specialized in financial options and commodity futures strategies, he combines technical skill with strategic insight.