Bitcoin at a Turning Point after a Solid Rally: Consolidation or Correction?

Introduction On March 2, 2025, Bitcoin recorded a notable bullish move, closing the session with an increase of around 9.53%. This rise was driven by an unexpected announcement from former President Donald Trump related to the cryptocurrency market. Below, we analyze the key factors defining Bitcoin’s current scenario and short- and medium-term outlook.

1. Recent Move and Daily Close

• Close on March 2, 2025: Bitcoin closed with a gain of approximately +9.53%, reaching levels close to intraday highs.
• Motivation for the rise: Trump’s statements, focused on the crypto ecosystem, sparked renewed interest in the asset and fueled investor optimism.

2. Importance of the Next Session and Following Days

• Trend confirmation: Large impulsive moves usually require several trading days to confirm their strength. If the rise is solid, it is common to see consolidation days above key resistance levels.
• Possible correction: The market could reverse part of the gains if the news loses relevance or if adverse factors arise (regulatory doubts, manipulation fears, etc.).

3. Parallel with a Pattern from March 2023

• Background: On March 12, 2023, Bitcoin led a bullish breakout amid a previous bearish trend.
• Subsequent confirmation: On that occasion, on March 13, the breakout was consolidated, driving an additional rally.
• Current similarity: After the rally on March 2, 2025, the market faces a similar moment: it must prove if it can maintain its strength and convincingly break above technical resistance levels.

4. Bitcoin Dominance in the Market

• Increase in dominance: The relative market capitalization of Bitcoin grew, reflecting a shift of capital from other cryptocurrencies to BTC.
• Possible market caution: If only Bitcoin rises and altcoins remain lagging, it may indicate a more conservative approach among investors. In consolidated bull markets, a general expansion is usually seen across the entire crypto spectrum.

5. Gaps with CME Futures When the CME futures market closes at a certain price and reopens with a significant jump, a “gap” is created that, in many cases, the price tends to “fill” later.

• Historical gap at $85,000: The recent rise left a gap in CME futures around $85,000, one of the largest recorded so far.

Implications for the Derivatives Market:

• Potential Sign of Support or Trend Change: If the price starts to rise again after partially reducing the gap, without closing it completely, it could indicate that the lower level has turned into new support. Traders watch for rejection in the area near the gap, which could mean that the bullish trend remains intact and that the market has no intention of returning to fill the gap in the short term.
• Impact on Futures Traders: Traders who were waiting for a complete closure of the gap may be forced to adjust their strategies if the price recovers before filling it. In the derivatives market, this could lead to another round of leveraged buying if bears (who expected a larger drop) are forced to cover their positions.
• Volatility Context: If the price has reduced the gap but not closed it, high volatility is likely to persist. In these cases, traders often monitor volume and sentiment indicators to assess whether the price will continue to drop to completely close the gap or if it will bounce before reaching it.

6. Strategy in the Face of Increased Volatility? Last week, we recommended a long straddle because volatility had dropped considerably. However, given the current rise, a long straddle has become too expensive. Due to this high cost and the current uncertainty, it will be necessary to wait for Bitcoin to revisit equilibrium zones again (such as the $96,000 level) or to make confirmation moves, whether bullish or bearish.

On the other hand, an iron condor, although considerably cheaper, can be really risky, since in a context of such high volatility, even if premiums may be more affordable, the price could fall into areas too far away, resulting in losses.

Conclusion The strong rebound on March 2, 2025, places Bitcoin at a crossroads. Although some sentiment indicators point to greater optimism, others remain in cautious territory, showing a still undecided market.

Key Points to Monitor:

• Break of Resistances: It will be essential to verify if BTC consolidates above the key resistance diagonal.
• Market Sentiment: The behavior of indices such as the Fear and Greed Index or BTC dominance will help assess investor confidence.
• Altcoin Response: A true bull market usually extends to the main altcoins, not just Bitcoin.

If the price manages to achieve a sustained close above the resistance levels, the bullish scenario is strengthened, and a new flow of institutional and retail investment could be activated. Otherwise, if BTC quickly retraces and loses support levels, it will become clear that the recent surge was more circumstantial than structural.

Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investments carry risk.

About Author

SpreadGreg is a distinguished Principal Trader and CEO at GP Asset Management LLC in Chicago, with over 11 years of professional trading experience and specialized in financial options and commodity futures strategies, he combines technical skill with strategic insight.