Bit Coin Halving

The chart presents data on the Bitcoin price returns following three halving events, which occurred on:

- 11/28/2012 (Cycle 1)

- 06/09/2016 (Cycle 2)

- 05/11/2020 (Cycle 3)

The returns are measured at different timeframes post-halving: 1 month (1M), 3 months (3M), 6 months (6M), 9 months (9M), 12 months (12M), and 18 months (18M). The bars represent the price return multiple (price at a given time divided by the price at the date of the halving) for each cycle.

### Key Points from the Chart:

1. 1 Month (1M):

- Cycle 1: 1.08x

- Cycle 2: 1.15x

- Cycle 3: 1.14x

2. 3 Months (3M):

- Cycle 1: 2.45x

- Cycle 2: 1.06x

- Cycle 3: 1.37x

3. 6 Months (6M):

- Cycle 1: 10.67x

- Cycle 2: 1.34x

- Cycle 3: 1.79x

4. 9 Months (9M):

- Cycle 1: 10.39x

- Cycle 2: 2.07x

- Cycle 3: 5.41x

5. 12 Months (12M):

- Cycle 1: 87.09x

- Cycle 2: 6.51x

- Cycle 3: 4.87x

6. 18 Months (18M):

- Cycle 1: 45.52x

- Cycle 2: 27.92x

- Cycle 3: 7.80x

### Observations:

- The Bitcoin price has significantly increased following each halving, with the most substantial returns realized between 12 and 18 months after the halving event.

- Cycle 1 shows the highest returns, particularly evident at the 12-month and 18-month marks.

- Cycle 2 also shows strong returns, especially at the 18-month mark.

- Cycle 3, while showing substantial returns, is comparatively lower than the previous cycles at the same timeframes.

### Recommendations:

1. Investment Timing:

- Based on historical data, investing in Bitcoin immediately after a halving event could potentially yield substantial returns, particularly if held for 12 to 18 months.

2. Expected Returns:

- Investors should be aware that while returns have been significant, there is a trend of diminishing returns with each halving cycle. Therefore, future halvings may not yield as high returns as previous ones.

3. Market Behavior:

- The data suggests that the bulk of returns are realized between 12 and 18 months post-halving. This could guide investment strategies regarding the timing of buying and selling Bitcoin.

In summary, the chart highlights the historical pattern of Bitcoin price increases following halving events, with the greatest returns observed in the 12 to 18-month timeframe post-halving. Investors might use this information to inform their investment decisions around future halving events.