A bit of aerospace history...

At a time when the aerospace industry enters a new era of severe turburlences, it is worth having a look in the mirror to see what it has already experienced. It will not tell us what lies ahead, since the current crisis is very different in terms of causality but, after almost twenty years of rather good times, it will remember us that it has not always been easy!

Boeing, Douglas and Airbus have delivered a combined 36,000 airliners since the beginning of the jet age in 1958. There were more actors in what was called the "western" world: Bombardier, British Aerospace, Convair, Dornier, Embraer, Fokker, Lockheed, Sud Aviation/Aérospatiale (now part of Airbus)... All but Embraer have disappeared from this business. So the long-term trend is definitely that of the big three. Boeing and Douglas outputs have been added together in the graph since they merged in the late 1990's.

What can we learn?

• Huge growth from 1958 to 1968, when 680 aircraft were delivered by Boeing and Douglas. It corresponded to the production peak of the first generation of jet liners: B707, B727, JT8D-powered B737, DC-8, DC-9. During this ten-year period, the air traffic increased three-fold. Such a level of airliners production would not happen again until 1991!
• Bumpy times from the end of the 1960's to the beginning of the 1980's, with downturns corresponding to the two oil crisis in particular. Nonetheless, this was the time of the first generation of widebodies: the iconic B747, the three-engine DC10 (and Tristar from Lockheed) and the ground-breaking twin-engine A300!
• A new time of growth from the mid-1980's to 1991. This was the time of the second generation of narrow-body airliners: B737 "classic", MD-80's and the emerging wonderkid from Airbus: the A320. This was brought to an end by the Gulf War and the following economic recession of the mid-1990's during which the output of airliners was about halved.
• A period of rapid growth followed from 1995 to the 9/11 attacks in the US in 2001. With the subsequent reduction of production at Boeing (which by then had absorbed Douglas), Airbus surpassed Boeing in terms of airplane deliveries for the first time in 2003. The duopoly was firmly in place!
• The production of airliners grew almost without exception from 2003 to 2018, hardly hit by the financial crisis of the late 2000's. From less than 600 in 2003, the combined output of Boeing and Airbus reached more than 1,600 aircraft in 2018. It was primarily driven by the outstanding success of the A320 and B737 medium-range airplanes, but long-range twin-engine airplanes such as the A330 and A350 on the Airbus side and B777 and B787 on the Boeing side were very successful as well. Air traffic was multiplied by nearly two-and-the-half in the period, exceeding 4 billion passengers worlwide in 2018. 2019 was a particular year with the B737MAX crisis badly affecting Boeing deliveries, whilst Airbus output recorded a seventeenth year of growth in a row!

This is not meant to be more than a brief piece of history about airliners to help put things in perspective... Please spare rageous comments of all sorts!