A Bird's-Eye View of the Chinese Balloon 2023

Two weeks ago, a Chinese balloon floated over Montana, alarming Americans and inciting diplomatic spats with Beijing. Ultimately, the Defense Department shot it down; however, lawmakers expressed disappointment that President Biden hadn't addressed the matter sooner.

The New York Times Visual Investigations team tracked the balloon's path using data from Planet Labs, a satellite image provider. This provided us with an unprecedented perspective of the balloon from launch site to its eventual demise, providing new insight into its capabilities.

What is a Balloon?

A Bird's-Eye View of China's Balloon Program

China's spy balloon program is a long-term initiative to gather intelligence on American military bases and other countries during times of conflict or rising tensions. This effort is an extension of Beijing's longstanding military efforts to control near space.

China has invested heavily in a fleet of balloons that can hover near the edge of commercial airspace and then drift up to 164,000 feet above it, just before outer space begins. Recently, these craft have been seen flying over 40 nations including Japan, Taiwan, India, Latin America and Hawaii.

Experts report that balloons are part of an expanding fleet in China that allows the People's Republic to conduct surveillance operations at a fraction of the cost of satellites. This is because they can be carried and launched from ground locations unlike orbiting satellites, plus they float in low-altitude zones where radar systems cannot easily track them.

On Thursday, a State Department official stated that China's spy balloons are an integral part of their program to collect global military intelligence, referring to it as "global surveillance network." According to the Biden administration, these balloons collect intelligence about other nations and help Beijing perfect hypersonic missiles with warheads capable of traveling faster than light.

U.S. officials noted that most of the balloons were designed to collect weather and atmospheric data, but also featured advanced communication equipment and solar panels for power supply.

Communications equipment is believed to have been capable of collecting radio and cell phone signals visible from high-altitude balloons. It's possible these signals were being collected from foreign military and government bases, with China then using this data for weapon targeting purposes, according to intelligence agencies.

Chinese balloons can also carry small drones to spy on targets. While drones are more expensive than balloons, they're easier to conceal and can be flown from ground locations where they will likely not be detected by radar systems.

These Chinese balloons, which have been spotted over the last few years, are equipped with multiple antennae that can pick up radio and cell phone signals as well as various types of electronic data. Intelligence agencies are now trying to understand exactly what types of information these balloons were collecting and how it was transmitted. If any technology developed by Western companies was involved, officials said, then that could prompt tougher action against firms exporting technology to China.

What is a Balloon’s Function?

As air warfare moves into the 21st century, we're witnessing an array of new capabilities - from hypersonic missiles to swarms of smart drones and directed energy weapons. But one major shift has occurred recently with regards to low-flying yet persistent assets: balloons.

Surveillance balloons, also known as high-altitude weather balloons, are frequently employed for military operations. Though these balloons are typically subject to wind patterns, some have guiding apparatus which allows the pilot to direct its course.

Surveillance balloons typically carry small imaging equipment and may also be equipped with propellers that enable them to move around at high speeds. This makes them perfect for conducting electronic surveillance, which can be difficult to track.

Laura Machain, associate research professor of international security and global studies at the University of Colorado Boulder, believes these balloons could also be designed to carry a weapon. Such balloons could potentially "jam" or disrupt signals near missile silos, giving an adversary time to disable or reduce their capacity for defense against such threats.

This poses a threat to the United States and its allies, since it could divert resources that otherwise would be dedicated to defending against air or missile attacks. Furthermore, China could potentially use its global high-altitude balloon program as an offensive strategy during wartime as Chinese writings on near space vehicles suggest.

In the past, such balloons have occasionally flown over U.S. airspace; however, this current Chinese balloon is the first to enter American airspace since President Biden took office in January 2017.

The Defense Department is labeling the incident an illegal foreign government attempt to collect sensitive information. This act of interception violates both US law and the Geneva Conventions, which require nations to take steps to safeguard against any intrusion by an alien nation.

Though the balloon may have been an innocent form of surveillance, it was an important step in China's expansionist ambitions. It creates the conditions for a new type of grey zone activity -- well-planned and purposeful but without violence -- which forebodes an uncertain future in the skies above America.

What is a Balloon’s Design?

In February, a Chinese balloon from Beijing fell over the US, providing an inspiring example of how mass-produced objects can be transformed to look so unique. It serves as proof that balloons can be used not only for artistic and architectural purposes but also scientific ones.

China has been developing and deploying high-altitude balloons for years as part of their ongoing effort to enhance their near space capabilities. This initiative was partly motivated by competition with advances in space technology from other nations, such as the U.S.

According to a 2018 article in the PLA Daily, China views the upper atmosphere where balloons such as this one operate as "a new battlefield." It states that balloons are not as visible to radar systems as aircraft or surface-to-air missiles, making them harder to detect.

Chinese balloons have also been described by PLA researchers as being capable of conducting kinetic strikes against targets both on Earth and in space. This would involve attaching a strike payload to the balloon, then letting it drift toward its intended target.

Japan employed a similar strategy during World War II to launch incendiary balloon attacks against US and allied targets during the Battle of Okinawa. These bomb-laden balloons could ignite hundreds of acres of forest in an effort to cause widespread destruction.

A balloon's capacity to carry a heavy payload makes it an attractive platform for carrying other types of technology. In 2015, Loon launched a fleet of weather balloons to provide mobile communications in disaster-stricken areas. Their balloons could reach heights of 19-25km (62,700-82,500ft), twice the altitude of most airplanes and much higher than most specialized military jets.

The Chinese spy balloon program illustrates that China is not only investing in developing advanced near-space technologies, but also exploring asymmetric means to counter the United States' capabilities. This has caused Washington to reevaluate its strategies and determine how best to defend itself against these new Chinese near-space vehicles in the future.

What is a Balloon’s Technology?

China has long been a leader in high-altitude balloon research. To stay resilient to extreme weather and cosmic radiation while remaining light enough for payload transport, scientists have been developing new materials. This has enabled both Chinese government agencies and private sector firms like Loon to explore a wide range of applications using such materials.

Balloons have long been used for telecommunications, earth imaging and civil applications such as weather forecasting. But only recently has China begun exploring the potential military uses of these balloons.

A major breakthrough has been the introduction of super-pressure balloons, which are lightweight but strong enough to carry heavy payloads for extended periods. These can be an asset to telecommunications and surveillance missions as they enable tracking targets around the world.

These balloons have also been employed to capture images of incoming ships and aircraft. If used effectively, these images could serve as a valuable asset for maritime surveillance, filling gaps in many states' navigation databases with data about ships passing through their ports or flying around their territorial waters.

The Chinese government's aerial surveillance program increasingly relies on balloons to monitor shipping. A Chinese national broadcaster reported in 2016 that a research team at Harbin Institute of Technology was developing helium blimps capable of flying at high altitudes and collecting information about ships. These drones can capture images, record video footage and transmit data back to a ground station for processing.

As far as I am aware, China has never before developed balloons specifically for this purpose. Kuang-Chi Company, who are creating these balloons, has been actively researching using new metamaterials to construct a blimp that can withstand sustained pressure for an extended period of time.

This technology is at the heart of China's Honghu program, a state-run research initiative launched in 2015 and described by Chinese media as "the future of China's aerospace industry." Through this endeavor, researchers hope to improve blimps' capacity for navigation in high altitudes while decreasing gas leakage. Furthermore, their work focuses on lightweight yet strong materials capable of withstanding extreme temperatures.