BIRDS & BLOKES - Off (very) to the US races with Polls and Punters

THE NEXT WEEK WILL PROVE THAT A WEEK IS A LONG TIME IN POLITICS AFTER TRUMP PROVED THAT A DAY IS TOO SHORT BY BEING ON ALL SIDES OF THE GENDER WARS THIS WEEK. (mail in voting starts next week in the USA before the first Trump/Harris debate). The BOOKIES HAVE IT FOR TRUMP - THE POLLSTERS FOR HARRIS!

The big divide is NOT red VS blue team, old Vs young, urban Vs rural, North Vs South, cat owners Vs dog lovers, or even economics and immigration Vs democracy and Freedom tropes.As we have consistently noted , voters refuse to believe the media scrum and recognise the self-serving nature of media owners and moguls flogging their candidates in the Presidential race.

Its simply a canyon between female and male cohorts who are for CHANGE and those who are for CONFLICT in relationships between birds and blokes.

Before we look at the differences between the bookies backing TRUMP and the pollsters indicating Harris, let's look at the psephology- as Trump’s odds have gone up in the past few days despite recent polls being in favor of Harris.

WHY THEY DIFFER

The demographic differences between political sports betting punters and general poll respondents ARE quite distinct, with Female respondents up to ten percent likely to accept Harris in all of the swing states:

1.???? Gender: Political sports betting tends to attract a higher percentage of male participants compared to general polls. This disparity is seen across various betting markets, including political events. For example, data from sources like FiveThirtyEight often show that men are more likely to engage in political betting than women.

2.???? Age: Bettors in political markets are often younger, more male and less educated than the general population surveyed in polls.

3.???? Political Affiliation: Political sports bettors show more pronounced partisan biases representing the bias of their electorate bases, that are more likely to place bets based on their political preferences, skewing the demographics compared to a neutral polling sample.

4.???? Economic Status: Betting participants often come from a range of economic backgrounds, of social disadvantage. Poll respondents, on the other hand, represent a broader cross-section of economic statuses.

5.???? Engagement Levels: Individuals who bet on political events are usually highly engaged with politics and current events. This engagement level might be higher compared to the average punter following media odds based on personality and party vs policy issues.

So in this context let's look at the published odds before the final debate:to see the differences between the bookies' blokes and the media managers' birds, in the context of political forecasting and analysis.

Trump, who was about 2 points behind Harris after the DNC, has gained some ground among bookmakers the past week, as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr endorsed the former president and suspended his campaign.

Bettors on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket are giving Trump slightly better odds of 50% to Harris’ 49%, while predicting both candidates have a roughly equal chance of winning the swing state of Pennsylvania.

With a 49.5% chance, Trump’s winning odds are also slightly higher than Harris’ 48% on the British betting site Smarkets .

With the pollsters,Vice President Kamala Harris beats former President Donald Trump in at least eight surveys taken after the Democratic National Convention, adding to her winning polling streak and expanding her edge on Trump since last month—though the size of her lead remains unchanged since before the convention.

Harris was up more than five points in both two-way (52.6% to 47.4%) and five-way (49.5% to 44%) matchups with third-party candidates on the ballot, according to an Outward Intelligence survey of 2,191 likely voters taken Aug. 25-29

Harris led Trump 47%-45% if third-party candidates were included or 48%-47% head-to-head in a Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday, marking the first time in over a year Trump has trailed in a Journal survey—a reversal from Trump’s 49%-47% head-to-head edge a month ago (the poll surveyed registered voters from Aug. 24-28, margin of error 2.5 points).

Harris had a 49%-47% edge in Quinnipiac’s first poll of likely voters, within the poll’s 2.4-point margin of error, as Trump and Harris split independents 45%-45% (the poll—taken Aug. 23-27—allowed respondents to pick third-party candidates, and in a head-to-head race, Harris’ lead shrinks to 49%-48%).

The vice president led Trump by five points—48%-43%—among likely voters in a Suffolk/USA Today poll taken Aug. 25-28, a massive shift from Trump’s 41%-38% lead over President Joe Biden shortly after Biden’s rough debate performance in June (the latest survey’s margin of error is 3.1 points).

Note: Some polls may include responses for “undecided” or other candidates that may not be included in this table. Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. Source: Polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The New York Time.