Bionic Shoulder and Market Movement November Newsletter

Shoulder surgery is complete! Huge thanks to my orthopedic surgeon, Dr. Graham. It's been a wild 9 days—juggling pain and recovery while attending a 2-day leadership conference in Houston, all with my right arm immobilized in a sling. Before diving into the 2023-2024 market breakdown and inventory volume, let me share a bit about my shoulder surgery and 9 days of haze. I felt like a character in the 1998 classic "Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas"

It was a number to say the least, but I'm lucky to be a built like a horse, so the recovery has gone smoothly and without a hiccup (prayers that physical therapy is the same), thanks to the support of my amazing wife and family. I was out for 134 minutes of anesthesia (yes, the doctor recommended that exact time, and it was spot on) and woke up to three small incisions in my shoulder.

The surgery? A Bankart lesion repair and some "remplissage" is a surgical procedure that fills a defect in the humeral head of the shoulder with the infraspinatus tendon and posterior capsule —a procedure to fix a torn labrum, which often happens after a shoulder dislocation. The tear makes the shoulder more prone to future dislocations. During the repair, the surgeon reattaches the labrum to the bone to restore stability, typically using arthroscopy for quicker recovery and less pain. Afterward, physical therapy is key to strengthening the shoulder and getting back to full range of motion.

Central Texas Market Update November 2023 to 2024 and Beyond (40 Year % growth)

Texas has seen impressive growth in home prices over the past 40 years, but the exact percentage varies by location and time period. On a broad scale, the statewide average home price increase in Texas from the early 1980s to today has been substantial. Here's a general overview of the state's home price growth:

1. 1980s to early 2000s: During the 1980s, Texas experienced a real estate slump, especially after the oil price crash. However, by the late 1990s and early 2000s, home prices started to rise more steadily.
2. 2000s to 2020s: Home prices have seen consistent growth, with some periods of faster acceleration. For instance, Texas experienced a significant real estate boom after the 2008 financial crisis due to its robust economy, strong job market, and relatively affordable housing compared to other states. By 2020, Texas had recovered and surpassed its pre-2008 home price levels.
3. Recent years (2010s–2020s): Home prices in Texas have experienced a significant surge, especially in major metropolitan areas like Austin, Dallas, and Houston. Austin, in particular, has seen some of the highest rates of appreciation, driven by tech industry growth and an influx of residents from more expensive markets.

Estimating 40-Year Growth:

Based on historical data, Texas home prices have grown roughly by 300%+ over the past 40 years, depending on the region. This means that a home that cost $100,000 in the 1980s might be worth $400,000 or more today in certain areas, with specific areas like Austin seeing even steeper price growth. With areas like Williamson, Travis, Hays, Bastrop, and Bell counties growing the most.

For more precise figures, local or regional data, or to track the changes by city, you would need access to specific housing market reports or data from sources like the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) or Texas real estate organizations like Austin Board of Realtors (ABOR).

Williamson County Specifics

One positive statistic regarding the local housing market in Williamson County in Central Texas, involves the active inventory. The median listing home price in Williamson County, TX was $456K in October 2024, trending down -3.4% year-over-year. The median listing home price per square foot was $216. The median home sold price was $414.2K. Although it seems like central Texas is slowing down, prospective sellers could potentially benefit from the diminishing inventory. As the number of active houses on the market decreases, the price appreciation will continue, giving sellers more leverage and the ability to increase buyer competition in the market and potentially increasing upward price pressure on home prices due to the growth that is happening throughout Central Texas. Although this isn't necessarily shifting Central Texas to a sellers market from a buyers market it can mean the following...

• More Negotiating Power for Sellers: A decrease in inventory leads to a seller’s market, where sellers have more leverage. They are more likely to get asking price or even above asking price, and they may be able to negotiate favorable terms.
• Less Time on Market: Homes in low-inventory markets often sell more quickly, reducing the time a seller needs to keep their home on the market.

Mortgage Interest Rate Forecast for 2024 and 2024

Mortgage rates are dependent on a variety of economic factors. Here is a great clip from a recent article I read, written by Erika Giovanetti on US News, a World Report In late November,

Mortgage rates should continue declining this year and next as the U.S. economy slows, inflation cools and the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the low-6% range through the end of 2024, dipping into high-5% territory in early 2025.

1. New GOP for 2025
2. Inflation expectation softening
3. Increased unemployment rate
4. Fed rate cut of 50 bps

However, following the drop to 6.1%, we saw 30 year fixed mortgage rates jump to 7% in the past few weeks, and this is where they currently sit. Keep an eye on the 10 year treasury yield, unemployment rate, and inflation rate, as these are three key factors that will determine mortgage rate direction. Although we have seen a recent spike, multiple predictions show mortgage rates declining to the high 5% range by the end of 2025.

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Over the past 40 years, Texas home prices have experienced substantial growth, with an estimated increase of over 300%, depending on the region. The 1980s saw a slump due to the oil price crash, but by the late 1990s and early 2000s, prices began rising steadily. After the 2008 financial crisis, Texas experienced a real estate boom, driven by a strong economy, job growth, and relatively affordable housing. In recent years, especially in cities like Austin, Dallas, and Houston, home prices have surged, with areas such as Williamson, Travis, Hays, Bastrop, and Bell counties seeing the highest appreciation.

In Williamson County specifically, while the median listing price decreased slightly by 3.4% year-over-year to $456K in October 2024, there is potential for price appreciation due to declining inventory. This can benefit sellers by giving them more negotiating power and reducing the time homes stay on the market.

Additionally, mortgage rates are influenced by factors such as inflation, Federal Reserve policies, and economic conditions. While recent rate spikes have occurred, predictions indicate mortgage rates may decline into the high 5% range by 2025, potentially easing borrowing costs in the near future.

Thank you for taking the time to read this November wrap up of the Central Texas/Williamson county summary and observations I am seeing in the market. As a Keller Williams REALTOR? we have created a value model serves as a comprehensive framework that allows for us to work with each client individually, taking the time to understand their unique lifestyles, needs and wishes. We stay ahead of trends in the real estate industry through our comprehensive, industry-leading training curriculum and research resources. It’s what prepares our team to provide you with unparalleled service. Let's talk about how me and my team can help you navigate the real estate process with our trusted vendors and team. Whether you are in the market to buy or sell land, or just have a general question about the market, or want to start learning what to expect in 2025 contact me and I’m happy to assist and serve you. I look forward to hearing from you!

Resources

• Monthly: Sales and Pricing Reports ABOR November 2024
• Compare Today's 30-Year Mortgage Rates -As of November 24, 2024, the average 30-year-fixed mortgage APR is 6.91% and the average 30-year refinance mortgage APR is 7.13%.
• Let's find your dream home - Look at some of the inventory listed in Central Texas
• Sage's Substack - The Daily Sage
• Recommended Reading of the Week - How to Generate Better Ideas, Master the Art of Suffering, and Design a Beautiful Life by Polina Pompliano on Substack.com
• Last finished Book : Leadership and Emotional Sabotage: Resisting the Anxiety That Will Wreck Your Family, Destroy Your Church, and Ruin the World by Joe Rigney. The book emphasizes how leaders—whether in families, churches, or workplaces—can unintentionally sabotage their effectiveness and well-being by allowing anxiety and negative emotions to take control. Sande provides insights on how to recognize these emotional traps and offers practical strategies to manage anxiety, build resilience, and lead with emotional maturity. The goal is to help leaders create healthier environments, avoid destructive behavior, and cultivate a sense of peace and stability in their personal and professional lives.