The Bio Revolution can be a force for good, but profound risks needs to be addressed

Imagine a world in which we can produce meat without animals, cure previously incurable diseases by editing the genetic fabric of an individual, and make industrial chemicals in yeast factories. The foundational technologies that could make all this possible largely exist. This is a Bio Revolution that could transform economies, societies, and our lives—and is already helping to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The speed with which scientists sequenced the virus’s genome—weeks rather than months—bore witness to the power of biological innovations.

The wave of innovation now underway is powered by a confluence of breakthroughs in biological science and ever faster and more sophisticated computing, data analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Our understanding of biology is rapidly deepening and, on the basis of that knowledge, so is our ability to engineer humans, animals, plants, and organisms. Close interaction between biology and computing is opening new frontiers from using brain signals to control neuroprosthetics to using DNA to store data.

New McKinsey Global Institute research finds that as much as 60 percent of the physical inputs to the global economy are either biological today (wood or animals bred for food) or nonbiological (cement or plastics) but could in principle over time be produced or substituted using biology. Nylon is already being made using genetically engineered yeast instead of petrochemicals, for instance, leather is being made from mushroom roots, and cement from bacteria. Innovations are being applied in virtually every sector. It has the potential to change what we eat,  what we wear, what skincare products we use, what medicines we take, and how we build our physical world.

The revolution has reached an inflection point with many applications being commercialized. We identified a visible initial pipeline of about 400 use cases, almost all scientifically feasible today, that could create direct economic impact of $2 trillion to $4 trillion in the next ten to 20 years. Most of these uses case are in health, agriculture, consumer markets, and materials, chemicals, and energy. It is notable that more than half of this impact will be outside health.

Biological innovations could help us meet some of the great global challenges of our time. In healthcare, we estimate that between 1 and 3 percent of the total global burden of disease could be reduced in the next ten to 20 years from these applications—roughly the equivalent of eliminating the global disease burden of lung cancer, breast cancer, and prostate cancer combined. Over time, if the full potential is captured, 45 percent of the global disease burden could be addressed using science that is conceivable today.

The early response to COVID?19 illustrated the substantial advances in biological science in just the past few years. The speed with which scientists sequenced the virus’s genome—weeks rather than months—bore witness to the new world of biology we describe in this report. Sequencing is just the start, bio innovations are enabling the rapid introduction of clinical trials of vaccines, the search for effective therapies, and a deep investigation of both the origins and the transmission patterns of the virus.

Many applications could help alleviate pressure on human use of depleting natural resources and help tackle climate change. Products such as materials, chemicals, and fuels produced through biological means are often biodegradable, emit fewer carbon emissions, and deplete less of the world’s natural resources. As such, biological innovations could cut annual average man-made GHG emissions by 7 to 9 percent from 2018 emissions levels by 2040 to 2050. This is the equivalent of up to eight times the total carbon dioxide emissions of the global airline industry in that year. Plant-based protein and cultured meat could reduce deforestation and reduce emissions. Raising animals for meat, eggs, and milk generates 14.5 percent of global GHG emissions, according to the FAO, one-third of all cropland is used to produce animal feed.

Impact will radiate out in waves, eventually affecting every sector, but adoption won’t be straightforward and will proceed at different paces depending on the application.

We are already seeing this. Some applications, including  CAR T-cell therapy, are already in use; others genetically engineered plants that sequester more carbon dioxide are likely to have impact further out. There will be many hurdles to cross. The science needs to be proven. New products need to make commercial sense, competing on cost or displaying higher quality than existing ones.

Even applications with demonstrated economic value and societal benefit will need to be considered for their risks. Our analysis suggests that about 70 percent of the total potential impact could hinge on societal attitudes and mechanisms based on existing regulation regimes governing the use of these technologies. This heavy influence from regulation is unsurprising—and necessary—given that this revolution entails profound risks—more than any other technological revolution in the past.

Biology will preserve life through innovative treatments tailored to our genomes and microbiomes, but biology could also be the greatest threat to life if it is used to create bioweapons or genetically engineered viruses that can do lasting damage to the health of humans or ecosystems. The CRISPR gene-editing tool has revolutionized medicine and is being applied to agriculture with great effect. But consider that CRISPR kits are now available to buy on the internet for a hundred dollars, and used to someone with no more than a college degree to make a new virus.

It is clear that a balance needs to be struck so that we collectively enable bio innovation and capture its potentially enormous benefits—but safely.