Bill Gates Looks To The Road Ahead
Review - Thoughts from the RICHEST Person in the world
Another Great Day In Africa - Chapter 20
E-Book by Trevor Nel – 1996 - 2020 copyright protected
The tools of the information age are about to transform our lives.
Fortune magazine of October 1995 puts Bill Gates’ net worth at $13.4 Billion. Forbes magazine’s annual list for 1995 put’s Gates’ personal wealth at $12.9 Billion. So what’s a difference of $500 Million between friends? The fact is that Bill Gates is the world’s richest person.
Yet, if this man had to enter your town or city and walk down the street, it is my impression that no one would notice him.
You see, Bill Gates is just another ordinary-looking local-Joe kind-of-guy that bears testimony to the amazing potential that lies within everyone of us.
Yet, Gates, together with his senior school buddy Paul Allen, “...had the will and drive to create more wealth than any business partners in the history of American capitalism” - Fortune Oct.2 1995.
And today, the company they founded - Microsoft - is leading the charge down the information highway... developing essential software to drive the new technologies that will transform the way we all live our lives.
According to Bill Gates the technology revolution has only just begun and the major advances are about to emerge with breathtaking consequences for everybody.
But, where did it all begin? Bill Gates pulls a photo out of his personal photo-album showing a scrawny teenager looking over the shoulder of the older Paul Allen, as he hacks away on the keyboard of a computer terminal funded by the school’s Mothers Club.
Just over 20 years ago, Gates and Allen got hooked on the intricacies of writing and repairing bugs in simple computer programs driving the large ‘dinosaur’ computers of the day.
Without realizing it - as happens to most successful people - they were working hard gathering information and experience that would lay the foundation for a new life-changing technology that most people thought to be just pure science fiction.
In 1972, the 19 year-old Allen showed the 16 year-old Gates a non-descript article in the Electronics magazine announcing the launch of a microprocessor chip by a new firm called Intel. The “microprocessor is a simple chip that contains the entire brain of a whole computer”. The intrepid entrepreneurs began to test their program writing skills by writing software to drive this new chip.
The event that was to change their lives was a simple advert in the January 1975 issue of Popular Electronics which announced the world’s first minicomputer kit - the Altair 8800.
Gates remembers thinking:
“Oh no! It’s happening without us! People are going to write real software for this chip”. He felt sure that “...it would happen sooner than later, and I wanted to be involved from the beginning. The chance to get in on the first stages of the PC revolution seemed the opportunity of a lifetime, and I seized it.”
In 1975 Gates and Allen formed Microsoft to write software for the little computer. Allen quit his programming job and Gates dropped out from Harvard University to snap up the window of opportunity that presented itself.
“People often ask me to explain Microsoft’s success. They want to know the secret of getting from a two-man, shoestring operation to a company with 17 000 employees and more than $6 Billion a year in sales. Of course, there is no simple answer, and luck played a role, but I think the most important element was our original vision”.
Their vision was to foresee that computers would become cheaper and cheaper, resulting in a world with a computer on every desk and in every home. Their dream was to have their software on every one of these computers. Today over 50 million computers a year are sold worldwide.
“Twenty years later I feel the same way about what’s going on now. Then I was afraid others would have the same vision we did; today I know thousands do.”
Gates firmly believes that over the next 20 years there will be many new innovators and entrepreneurs who will exploit the exciting coming developments.
So just what is Gates vision of the next 20 years? It comes as no surprise to learn that it centers around the distribution of information.
He asks the question... “What if communicating were almost free?” Alluding to the vision that access to information will become cheaper and cheaper via effective communication technology.
“The idea of interconnecting all homes and offices to a high-speed network has ignited this nation’s imagination as nothing has since the space program. And not just this nation’s - imaginations around the world have caught fire. Thousands of companies are committed to the same vision, so individual focus, understanding of the intermediate steps, and execution will determine their relative successes.”
Says Gates, “I spend a good deal of time thinking about business because I enjoy my work so much. Today a lot of my thoughts are about the highway (the much talked about information super-highway). Twenty years ago, when I was thinking about the future of microchip personal computers, I couldn’t be certain where they were leading me either. I kept to my course, however, and had confidence we were moving in the right direction to be where we wanted to be when everything became clear. There’s a lot more a stake now, but I feel that same way again. It’s nerve-wracking, but exhilarating too.”
“All sorts of individuals and companies are betting their futures on building the elements that will make the information highway a reality. At Microsoft, we’re working hard to figure out how to evolve from where we are today to the point where we can unleash the full potential of the new advances in technology. These are exciting times, not only for the companies involved but for everyone who will realize the benefits of this revolution.”
Exciting times indeed, especially when you realize that Microsoft has committed $100 Million a year for the next 5 years into research and development of software to drive the Internet.
“The popularity of the Internet is the most important single development in the world of computing since the IBM PC was introduced in 1981”, says Gates.
Internet is the general term used to describe the vast international network of computers that have been connected together to exchange the information contained in their storage banks. With the major emphasis on standardization of technologies - known in the industry as protocols - more and more providers of quality information are hooking up onto the Internet.
These quality information providers include universities, publishing houses, government departments, and commercial enterprises. The information is carried from computer to computer via the standard telephone line.
Already, anyone with a computer at home, or in their business, can hook into the ‘Net and access information on almost any subject in the world.
More importantly, this same person can send a message to anyone else hooked up to the ‘Net, anywhere in the world, at the same cost of a local telephone call..!
The cost of communicating and accessing information is dropping dramatically, and will continue to do so as more users climb on board.
Gates is a firm believer in building the concept of “critical mass” behind a concept, product, or service. The more users or beneficiaries of a new product or service, the more “positive feedback” gets into the market fueling more new users.
“The Internet has, on it’s own, established itself as a place to publish content. It has enough users so that it is benefiting from positive feedback: the more subscribers it gets, the more content it gets, and the more content it gets, the more subscribers it gets.”
To understand the importance of the content revolution, one needs to recognize that a current encyclopedia set, which generally number 24 large volumes of text and pictures, sells for thousands of rands. Yet, it gets out of date very quickly, and it takes up a lot of space.
Today, Microsoft Encarta - an interactive encyclopedia on a single CD-ROM disc - includes 26 000 topics with 9 million words of text, 8 hours of sound, 7 000 photographs and illustrations, 800 maps, 250 interactive charts and tables, and 100 animations and video clips. It’s cost? Around R350 (less than $100)!
Gates contends that the vast majority of the world’s printed information is difficult for the average person to locate.
“It’s almost impossible to find all the best information - including books, news articles, and film clips - on a specific topic”.
Even the world’s richest person recognizes the value of having quality information at your fingertips.
Quite simply, the simple difference between successful people and unsuccessful people lies in the quality of information they are able to access and apply to their lives.
It is no coincidence that the most disadvantaged people in the world always suffer from a lack of access to information.
In fact, the major political tyrants of this century maintained their control over the masses by deliberately keeping them uninformed through censorship and control of the media for propaganda purposes.
Information is power!
Information is of greatest value to those who have never had access to it and recognize its critical role in their new path of self-empowerment and self-enrichment.
The Internet is destined to add enormous value to everyone's lives. Gates estimates that the current cost of storing a page of digital information on computer is about $0.00021 per page -”... about one two-hundredth what the local copy center would charge at $0,05 a page”.
Taking storage costs into account, Gates points out that the “...amortized price per page drops to $0.00007”. Meaning... that in the very near future the cost of distribution of quality information will be very small. Which leads Gates to state that “...The Internet is the greatest self-publishing vehicle ever”.
Further meaning that the many talented innovators and entrepreneurs with valuable information at their fingertips, that has perhaps never before been published due to high publishing costs, will now have an exciting negligible cost technology with which to express their thoughts.
The ability to disseminate information and communicate with people connected to your computer network will change the way we conduct our activities, whether in business, education, or leisure.
Predicts Gates, “...companies will base the nervous systems of their organisations on networks that reach every employee and beyond, into the world of suppliers, consultants, and customers”.
But should you now drop everything you’re doing and go out and buy a computer for your business. Well, watch out!
Gates warns, “The first rule of technology used in a business is that automation applied to an efficient operation will magnify the efficiency. The second is that automation applied to an inefficient operation will magnify the inefficiency.”
In other words, before you jump in feet first, get to understand what the technology can do to improve productivity in your business, and how it will change work habits.
For instance, many businesses spend much of their time and money on exchanging internal paperwork, telephone calls to staff members and interminable meetings. Today the Internet allows all these functions to take place via E-Mail (electronic mail) at a fraction of the cost.
This leads to the advent of telecommuting, or working from home. “Telemarketers, customer-service representatives, reservations agents, and product-support specialists will have access to as much information on a screen at home as they would on a screen at home”.
Within the next ten years most new jobs advertised are expected to state how many hours the employee is expected to work from home. “..Each individual will have to learn to be a productive employee on his or her own”.
Gates’ most striking predictions center around the role of the information highway growing into a global electronic marketplace. “Servers distributed worldwide will accept bids, resolve offers into complicated transactions, control authentication and security, and handle all other aspects of the marketplace, including the transfer of funds. This will carry us into a new world of low-friction, low-overhead capitalism, in which market information will be plentiful and transaction costs low. It will be a shoppers heaven”.
Other predictions...?
The delivery of goods ordered over the Internet will also become a big business...; the entire system of commissioned agents may be changed...; video rentals and music stores may face a dwindling market...; and the prices for legal services could be driven down dramatically.
Right now, everybody should be assessing the changes that could take place in your community as a result of this new technology. Be prepared, and take advantage of any new opportunities it presents.
By far the most profound impact could be felt in the field of education. “Any student will be able to enjoy the custom fit of a tailor-made education at mass production prices”. The educator who understands the pivotal role of the emerging information technology looks to have an extremely bright future.
“As innovation has improved the standard of living, there has always been an increase in the portion of the workforce dedicated to education. Educators who bring energy and creativity to the classroom will thrive. So will teachers who build strong relationships with children, because kids love classes taught by adults they know genuinely care about them”.
The plug-in-at-home brigade is also destined for rapid growth. Whether to watch a new video, access the latest news and sports results, read your latest mail, or play a new game... there will be something for you to do with your home computer.
Gates has a vision of an active electronic community linked directly to their local municipality and political representatives demanding pertinent responses to their queries for a better lifestyle.
“In the future you will be able to work anywhere, reach anyone form anywhere, and be reached anywhere!”
Can you sense it..? The excitement..! The anticipation..! The opportunity..! Well, the world’s richest person can.
Gates likens the frenzy over the Internet to that of the Californian gold rush. “When it is finally run there will be many winners, some unexpected”.
But he cautions: “My view is that the highway won’t be a sudden, revolutionary creation but that the Internet, along with the evolution in the PC and PC software, will guide us step by step to the full system”.
In fact, he expects that the most exciting advances on the information highway will probably only take place after the turn of the century, and are likely to come from “...little start-ups, run by people who were open to new possibilities”.
Given what is already happening, that is an exciting prediction, indeed.
Now, there are perhaps many people concerned about the pace with which this new technology appears to be making changes to the world as we know it. And many may be concerned that they could be missing the boat. Well, don’t..! The world will not change overnight. But, you must be prepared to understand and grow with the new technologies, because change it will!
As Gates puts it, “The average person today enjoys a much better life than the nobility did a few centuries ago.” and... “Advancing productivity propels societies forward, and it is only a matter of time before the average person in a developed country will be ‘richer’ in many ways than anyone is today”.
He does warn that... “Entire professions and industries will fade. But new ones will flourish. This will be happening over the next two or three decades...”
So there is time to prepare for the coming change.
But where should you start. Simple - get familiar with using computers..!
Costs are coming down and software is becoming friendlier for the layman to use. It’s almost like driving a car. We are at the point with our computers where we don’t have to understand what is going on under the hood to drive a car from point A to point B.
There are also many computer suppliers who allow you to test drive a computer so that you can see what it can do for you.
Of course, if you are serious about understanding this coming technology you won’t get a better insight than that provided by Bill Gates himself in his great new book - The Road Ahead. Designed specifically for the layman, this book speaks volumes for the seemingly humble, ordinary nature behind the richest person in the world. He could be you or I. Get it!
Bibliography:
Gates, Bill. “THE ROAD AHEAD” Publisher: Viking 1995. R100
Article: Bill Gates & Paul Allen Talk. Fortune Magazine. Oct. 95
Points To Ponder
1. The technology revolution has only just begun.
2. The most important element in success is vision.
3. Distribution of information will drive new technologies.
4. Information is power.
5. New technologies make the average person richer.
6. It’s time to understand how to use a computer.
Action Program
Pop into your local computer store and ask them to let you test drive Windows 95/98/2000. Get them to point you to the Help screen tutorials. The PC will teach you how to operate the mouse pointer and it will also demonstrate how to work with a word processing package, spreadsheet and graphics program.
Ends.
First produced in 1996. Review Update by Trevor Nel – January 2020
This chapter from the e-Book: Another GREAT Day In Africa
Click here for the Introduction Home Page & Contents
Regards
Trevor
Trevor Nel
CEO
FOURWAYS Community Chamber of Commerce
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