To Beat the Next Ebola, Bill Gates Says We Need 'Germ Games, Not War Games'

VANCOUVER — The Ebola outbreak may be fading from public discussion, but it's not too soon to start thinking about the next global disease pandemic, one that will almost surely be more devastating, Bill Gates told attendees at the TED conference here.

The greatest risk to the world, he said, is "not missiles, but microbes," and a highly contagious bioterrorism attack or viral outbreak similar to the Spanish flu that killed more than 33 million people between 1918 and 1919. He called on nations to begin training now for epidemics in similar ways that they prepare for wars.

"We're not ready for the next epidemic," he said. "NATO does war games to check if people are well trained. ... [We need] germ games, not war games."

Gates's talk coincided with the publishing of an essay in the New England Journal of Medicine Wednesday titled, "The Next Epidemic — Lessons from Ebola."

He called the response to Ebola, which has now killed more than 10,000 people, a "global failure" filled with missteps. Case reports from effected regions came in on paper, often filled with inaccuracies. Medical teams, save for volunteers from some non-profit groups, deployed within months, when it should have been days. And there was no central group overseeing the diagnostics or treatment approaches. (The World Health Organization is meant to monitor such epidemics, but is understaffed and underfunded, Gates wrote.)

Technology can help, to an extent. Gates said cell phones should be used to better share information, while satellite maps could show where infected people are traveling.

But the bigger step in preparing for the next inevitable epidemic is shoring up the health care systems in poor countries that have been decimated by war and lack primacy care facilities and laboratories. Improvements in the basic healthcare infrastructure in these places would help to more quickly spot an outbreak, he said.

He also called for closer ties between the military and health care workers.

Gates said hundreds and thousand of workers -- think of it as a healthcare National Guard, essentially -- should be trained and ready to deploy should a crisis break out. The military, meanwhile, could help with providing tents, supplies and other materials the responders might need.

"In movies, there’s a group of handsome epidemiologists ready to go," he said, showing pictures of Jude Law and the stars of the film "Contagion." "They move in, they save the day. But that’s just pure Hollywood."

Gates also said more research spending should be allocated to bring faster drug and vaccine development. He did not have an estimate of how much that would cost, but said it would surely be less than the estimated $3 trillion in global wealth that would be destroyed by a global flu outbreak.

"We don’t need to hoard cans of spaghetti, or go down to the basement, but we need to get going," he said. "Time is not on our side."

More coverage of TED on LinkedIn:

• The Creator of the iPod Explains How to Hire Creative People (And Why He's Obsessing About Apples) (Chip Cutter)
• I've Hardly Socialized for Two Weeks: A TED Speaker on What It's Like Prepping for This Week's Talk (Tim Leberecht)
• Why Is Monica Lewinsky Giving a TED Talk? (Rob Wyse)
• You Could Be in the Dullest of Jobs, and Your Presentations Will Still Be Compared to a TED Talk (Carmine Gallo)
• If You Watch a TED Talk and Then Feel Inadequate in Your Own Life, Read This (Carson Tate)
• Forget All the TED Cynics for a Moment: These Talks Will Just Make You Smile (Diego Rodriguez)