The biggest news from MWC is the lack of news
I’ve been reporting on MWC for various entities for many years. Almost invariably I’ve done this from afar, scanning the press releases, journalist announcements and similar. The years when I’ve actually attended I haven’t actually gained anything more from being there – it’s only in private conversations where the true story comes out and these can happen outside of MWC in a less hassled environment.
What has astonished me this year is the complete lack of any news. Samsung have a better camera and Nokia have a yellow phone – that appears to be it. No major 5G announcements, no new use cases, no significant vertical industry interactions. What were 100,000 people doing?
Regarding 5G there were a few “we’re going to lead the world†announcements, particularly in the US where one-upmanship appears to be rampant; equally there were a few “we can’t see any business case†including, tellingly from Korea Telecom, often seen as the poster child for 5G leadership. In operator panels there was a general inclination to talk down the potential for 5G. The data published was stark and yet often not accepted. The GSMA predicted no revenue growth for the industry (in the developed world) out to 2025 and falling capital expenditure. McKinsey predicted even a modest 5G deployment would increase capital and operational expenditure by 60%, and a full deployment by 300%. Samsung suggested that there was little hope of revenue from verticals, at least in the next few years, due to lack of concerted engagement. A few held out a vague hope for operational cost savings as a way to square that circle.
When the industry cannot even generate any buzz at its own, carefully stage managed, annual jamboree, then there is something seriously amiss. It feels like the approach to mobile provision, which has worked so well for three decades, has run its course, but that coming up with an alternative is proving very hard.
It's all very much as predicted in my book "The 5G Myth" which does provide an alternative future for the industry.
...It reminds me of the famous song "don't believe the hype"...anyways, 5G will eventually come but in a completely different form from what the industry is trying to sell it to us today, btw, I heard some people already talking about 6G-:)
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7 å¹´Some applications and services, such as smart farm, smart factory, smart grid network, requires very strict latency and reliabilty. 5G is a necessary selection for them.
Business Innovation Manager, Technology Advisor, Occasional Angel Investor
7 å¹´Actually the "what next" and on "which timeframe" questions were quite common at MWC... and it was clear that other players are required or a transformation of the present players is indeed necessary. We should not forget that 5G is considered as an "enabling technology", serving the needs of an increasingly connected world where "things" and "humans" require either broadband connectivity or a reliable narrowband connectivity and where the key aspects are low (and possibly "certain") latency, high capacity, and large number of connections (per unit time and per unit space). In this highly connected world mobile phones, as they are Today, will likely play a less and less important role and will not necessarily drive the transition towards 5G. However, the role of other technologies (both in broadband and in narrowband), should not be underestimated... they will likely compete in many areas but they might also very well coexist, especially once the performance of the wireless link is further improved. In any case 5G cannot come alone... without investments in a proper "fiber-based infrastructure" it is hard to imagine a fully operational "5G infrastructure". The most realistic scenarios being "5G islands" popping up where third parties (or, most likely, governments) will properly support the investments in the infrastructure... and with a relatively slow "return", well beyond 2025.
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7 å¹´Wise observations William. When it comes to being the poster people for 5G, who needs USA or Korea when we have Bournemouth! It seemed unlikely they would be a leader in any matters 5G...fact is they are just quietly doing stuff regardless. Great book BTW!
Sales Leader with a 25 year+ commercial background, builder and manager of high performing teams and experienced supporting the biggest brands globally including to CxO level
7 å¹´One of those sad but true statements... Loads of "nice to haves" and great talk about the future of 5G - but the real deployments and more critically any sense of tangible revenues, feels further away...