The biggest challenge of the Energy Transition is broad, complex, and vastly underrated

To limit global warming there is a growing consensus in the need to transition our energy ecosystem away from fossil fuels and that time is of the essence. Significant, system-wide change is necessary within this decade to stay on track – most importantly the complementary shifts to far greater electrification of transport, heating and industry that is powered mostly by renewable energy. While massive deployment of new renewable energy generation will be challenging, an exponential growth trend is clearly underway for solar PV. And though a recent NY Times article highlighted the corresponding challenge of permitting and interconnecting new renewable energy projects to the grid, there is promising momentum and solid examples of success. These hurdles to realizing the energy transition are significant; however, there is an even greater, less visible challenge underlying the Energy Transition. This mega-challenge is related to the ‘system of systems’ that make up the backbone of the power sector - the grid. In short, the rapid rise of renewable energy and clean electrification is driving three simultaneous – and fundamental – transformations of the grid that are unprecedented in scope and urgency.

The first transformation is rooted in physics as the grid is transformed from one?that has most of its power generating assets connected via synchronous generators (rotating magnets driven by turbines) to one with increasing amounts of renewable energy generation connected via power electronics (semiconductor devices). An elegant feature of today’s grid is that it was designed to use the physical inertia from spinning turbines to maintain stability. A re-design of the grid to utilize the unique features of power electronics is now necessary. There is every reason to believe that system stability can be maintained – and even improved – with this new paradigm. After all, power electronics are fast, versatile and highly programmable. However, changing the fundamental design rules of a system, while continuing to operate it with high reliability, is not trivial – requiring deeply technical solutions that are tailored to local conditions.?

The second transformation is in the fundamentals of grid operation. Just think about how many things are changing here! Let’s start with the fuel. In the current system, we use fuel that is relatively easy to store and control, such as piles of coal and pipelines of gas. As the amount of renewable energy increases, we will see more of our systems using fuel provided by nature. This fuel - in the form of sunshine and wind - is variable, and although generally predictable, it isn’t controllable.

Another operational paradigm shift has to do with where power is being generated. Today’s grid is mostly fed by large, central power plants that send electricity along transmission lines in one direction.?Renewable energy plants are generally smaller than conventional plants and more distributed – leading to a variable flow of electricity that can change direction depending on whether that region is producing or consuming more power at any specific time.

And lastly, electricity demand is changing in a historic manner that drives a need to reconfigure grid operations. Historically, demand has been relatively predictable and passive, with little change year over year. Much higher demand is expected moving forward given growing electrification. Electric vehicles contribute to this demand growth, while also adding complexity due to their mobile nature that makes location-based demand less predictable.

?These operational changes might seem impossible to overcome, but it’s important to remember that the world is very different now than when grid operations were designed roughly a century ago. Leaps forward in communications, controls, and data management make this a workable challenge, but one that requires coordination across a vast number of players that haven’t had to cooperate before.

?The third transformation is market-based. When the system changes so much, the economics surrounding the system needs to change to align financial reward with appropriate decisions and behavior. Essentially, when fuel for the system shifts from something that wars have been fought over to literally free this changes the fundamentals of how electricity markets should work. Today’s power economic system is based mostly on the value of energy, but increasingly will need to reward metrics such as capacity and flexibility to ensure that the right mix of power generation (and storage) is built out and the ecosystem is able to support user and operator needs. This economic transformation requires smart government investment, clear energy policy and regulations, and greater access to capital.?

Additionally, these three simultaneous transformations are occurring against a common backdrop: the need for modern grid infrastructure. Today’s grid is long overdue for an overhaul, with a significant amount of the US electric transmission infrastructure beyond its 50-year life expectancy. Modern equipment and a greater number of interconnections are needed to carry significantly more power to meet the growing demand.

?In short, these grid transformations are critical to enable a future of clean electrification while retaining reliability and affordability. Mitigating climate change can co-exist with building prosperous economies and improving quality of life, though it requires a coordination and collaboration not seen since wartime mobilization. This is more than a technology challenge. Broad engagement on codes, standards, policies and new market instruments will also be necessary. Though there is good momentum, with examples such as the GPST consortium, success will depend on equipment providers, grid operators, legislators and regulators maintaining a holistic mindset. The community required to solve this challenge is vast and the individual roles played are largely invisible in society, but their success will fundamentally enable the energy transition for us all.?