The Big Shift: Reimagining Global Business in an AI-Driven World

Recent events—from the upheaval in the German government coalition to the AI-powered digital revolution in the automotive industry and heightened cross-border trade threats following the 2024 US election—might suggest we're witnessing deglobalization. However, my forthcoming research suggests we're actually experiencing something far more profound: a fundamental reset of global business.

The automotive industry provides a stark warning. German premium manufacturers, long the global standard-bearers, are losing ground rapidly—not just in China but globally. As BYD and other Chinese EV manufacturers expand beyond their home market, traditional automakers are outpaced in technology and market share. This isn't just about electric vehicles; it's about failing to adapt to a new reality where software, AI integration, and digital user experience matter more than traditional engineering excellence. VW and Mercedes may be competing for AI talent, but their declining market positions in China—once their most profitable market—suggest they're playing catch-up rather than leading the big shift.

The US-China decoupling adds another layer of complexity. Rather than simply fragmenting global business, it's catalyzing new forms of regional innovation hubs and digital ecosystems. Make no mistake, the most heads-up leaders, like Hartmut Jenner, the Chairman and CEO of leading global cleaning equipment manufacturer Kaercher, are already responding by shifting their organizations towards fluid and interconnected value-creating ecosystems. They leverage transparent and decisive leadership, AI, and digital platforms to maintain global reach while respecting geopolitical realities.

This reset isn't about retreating from globalization—it's about embracing new forms of global connectivity. In our upcoming paper, we identify how AI, digital technologies, and ecosystem orchestration are creating opportunities that didn't exist in traditional multinational models. We are witnessing the shift to a radically different global economy and a Future of Work that reshapes how value is created. The future multinational may not even resemble today's formal corporate structures.

Three key trends are emerging:

1. The rise of digital-first global orchestration, where value creation happens through fluid networks rather than rigid hierarchies

2. The emergence of “borderless talent” — AI-augmented, highly skilled individuals who contribute to multiple unrelated organizations globally simultaneously

3. The blurring of industry boundaries, where automotive, tech, and energy companies compete for the same talent and innovation spaces

Political developments, like the current situations in Germany and the US, aren't ending globalization—they're accelerating this big shift. Companies are responding by building more resilient, digitally enabled global networks that can adapt to regional challenges while maintaining global reach.

What does this mean for business leaders? The winners in this reset won't be those who retreat from global engagement but those who reimagine how to create and capture value in an AI-driven, digitally connected world. Traditional formal multinational structures may give way to more fluid, ecosystem-based organizations that can rapidly adapt to change while maintaining global relevance.

The future is not about choosing between global and local—it's about orchestrating complex networks that can be both simultaneously. The German automotive industry's challenges are a wake-up call: past success in traditional multinational models doesn't guarantee future survival in this new era.

Thoughts? How is your organization navigating this big shift?

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