Big Problem: Test Scores

In today’s newsletter, we examine the growing achievement gap in US schools, the political divide on infidelity, and Americans’ perceptions of the Democratic Party.

Big Problem: Test Scores

Topline:?The achievement gap between high and low-performing math students has grown dramatically in the United States—leading to one of the biggest splits in the world. Using results from the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), AEI’s Nat Malkus?highlights?that the gap in math scores between the 90th and 10th percentiles grew by 48 points for eighth-grade students.

The Problem:?The gap growth is similar for fourth-grade math students (more than 50 points). In science, the gap for both fourth and eighth-grade students grew roughly 40 points.

Global Outlier:?The growth in the achievement gap is a uniquely American problem. In both fourth and eighth-grade TIMSS scores, the United States has the largest gap growth of any participating country. Malkus writes, “The point is that there has been dramatic achievement gap growth over the past 12 years and that this achievement gap growth does not appear to be solely due to global factors beyond our control.This is an American problem, and it’s not just in math either.”

Political Divide on Infidelity

Topline:?Republican men, especially religious ones, are more likely than Democratic men to disapprove of extramarital affairs,?finds?AEI’s Brad Wilcox. His analysis of the General Social Survey (GSS) shows a growing divide between ever-married?(people who are or have been married) Republican and Democratic men (age 18–55) on this issue, driven by an increased acceptance of extramarital sex by Democratic men.

• A decade ago, 82% of ever-married Republican men and 76% of ever-married Democratic men believed having sex with someone other than one’s spouse was “always wrong.”
• Today, 81% of ever-married Republican men still hold that belief, compared with 53% of ever-married Democratic men.

Religious Factor:?Religious attendance further widens this divide on extramarital affairs. Among ever-married Republican men, 90% of those who attend a religious service once a month consider extramarital affairs wrong, compared with 74% of their nonreligious counterparts.

Also . . .?Wilcox suggests there is a strong correlation between those who approve of extramarital affairs and those who are more likely to engage in them. GSS data indicate that 13% of Republican men and 18% of Democratic men reported having sex outside of marriage. Among religious Republican men, only 10% reported infidelity, compared with 15% of nonreligious Republican men.

“The story here is straightforward: men who endorse extramarital sex, or simply don’t oppose it, are more likely to cheat on their spouse.”?—Brad Wilcox

The Liberal Liability

Topline:?Until recently, about half of Americans considered the Democratic Party liberal. AEI’s Daniel Cox?reports?that between 2014 and 2023, the percentage of Americans who considered the Democratic Party “liberal” or “very liberal” rose from 51% to 66%.

• Notably, the percentage of Americans who viewed the Democratic Party as “very liberal” increased from 24% to 37% during this period.

Rapid Shift:?Cox explains that while Americans believe both political parties are becoming more extreme, Democrats’ leftward shift has been particularly rapid. As a result of this shift, Democrats’ approval rating has declined. Political independents who view the Democratic Party as “moderate” tend to hold a favorable view of the party; however, those who view it as “liberal” or “very liberal” report significantly lower approval.

Big Picture:?For most of the past three decades, the Democratic Party enjoyed a net positive view among Americans. However, Pew data show a decline in public approval starting in 2019. By 2023, 60% of Americans held an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party.

“The rapid rise in negative views toward the Democrats has coincided with the growing perception that the Party has moved further left.”?—Daniel Cox

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Special thanks to Carter Hutchinson and Drew Kirkpatrick.

Thanks for reading. We will be off next week, but we'll be back in January.

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Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio. Formatted for LinkedIn by Maggie Obriwin.