20 Big Ideas that will change your world in 2020

Dipti Jain, Isabelle Roughol

The world is accelerating. Years of technological disruption, tumultuous politics and an always-on workplace have left us out of breath. The end of the year gives us an opportunity to slow down.

Every December, we on the LinkedIn editorial team scour our feeds and reach out to dozens of our frequent contributors to identify the big ideas that will shape the year ahead. What rising conversations will matter to the professional community? In 2020, one theme is poised to emerge: After a decade of profound change, professionals are taking stock and questioning the world we built and the values that drive us. Is capitalism working as it should? How will we behave as stewards of our planet? Why have we made heroes out of tech founders? Have we elevated work to too high a status? “Existential”, it turns out, is the word of the year. 

But even if we offered 100 ideas, it would not be an exhaustive list. So we invite you to join us on this fearless attempt to peer into the future. What big idea do you think will emerge in the year ahead? Share in the comments or publish a post, article or video on LinkedIn with #BigIdeas2020. Now onto our own 20 big ideas for 2020.

1. We will question the value of work itself.

One central idea connects the increased attention to flexible work, the four-day workweek, mental health on the job and other rising workplace trends: Maybe work was a false idol all along. Europe always had its doubts, but even the most work-obsessed nations are now questioning an always-on, achievement-centric culture. Members of America’s affluent class have begun to make plans to retire early, while Chinese workers are starting to rebel against the 9-9-6 model (working 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week). “This generation of people is really careful about what they give at their workplace and what they give everywhere else,” notes Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman. Leaders have to adapt if they hope to attract and keep the best talent. 

Kelman has mixed feelings about this shift. He rose up in the “sleeping bag under your desk” culture of Silicon Valley. “This obsession with productivity, growth and competitiveness just spurred every new generation to prove its mettle by working all the time,” he says. It could be destructive but it also produced results, for individuals and for nations. That hunger has abated.

2. The perk professionals will want most is time.  

Flexible work is no longer an allowance made for a few employees; It is a demand from all. Generation Z and millennial professionals are leading the way in establishing a new relationship with the office, according to reporting from the New York Times’ Claire Cain Miller and Sanam Yar. Experiments with a four-day workweek, for instance, are spreading across the world: Microsoft tried it in Japan, while the UK Labour Party even promised it on its election manifesto. Private employers in small-scale experiments say the shorter hours have not hurt results — quite the contrary. “Benevolence might pay for employers,” says John Pencavel, an economics professor at Stanford who has studied working hours and productivity. “Shorter hours may not compromise output. Shorter hours may involve lower labor costs. Not only does the employer benefit, the employee can too.” 

Those who may benefit the most are working mothers, who historically have taken cuts in pay and promotion in exchange for the kind of flexibility that may soon become standard. 

3. Indian IT’s talent pyramid is flattening and freshers have an upper hand.  

“The focus on fresh talent can potentially yield higher benefits than the constant process of trying to build skills through lateral hiring, which ends up becoming dysfunctional with lower yields,” says Rituparna Chakraborty, co-founder & EVP, TeamLease. Early signs were evident in 2019: Cognizant axed thousands of mid-to-senior level jobs but it upped fresher hiring, as did rivals Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services. Expect all major IT firms to follow suit as the industry deals with the dual challenge of cutting costs and reskilling the workforce. This shift will also allow companies to identify and nurture leaders early and get talent dovetailed into their ethos and vision. 

4. Governments may have to treat reskilling like K-12 education. 

We’ve spent years estimating how many of our jobs robots would take. It’s now time to think about how people will thrive in this new reality and about the nuts and bolts of constantly reskilling the workforce. There are three options, says Jason Wingard, dean of the School of Professional Studies at Columbia University: Workers fend for themselves in a contractor model, companies invest in keeping their talent on the payroll and up to date... or governments take it upon themselves.

“We have to ask some big questions: Is it our responsibility to make sure that our society is prepared?” Wingard asks. To prepare workers for the Industrial Age, nations built a primary and secondary education infrastructure. Now, governments may need to do something similar with adult education. “We need to have what used to be the community college, but in another form that prepares people continuously,” Wingard says. “If you, as an individual citizen, are paying your taxes and willing to develop yourself and get new skills, they should be available to you, ostensibly for free, and that should make you a better piece of the labour market.”

5. You’ll either be data literate or illiterate.  

From analysing hiring and attrition trends to arriving at important business decisions, a primary understanding of how data impacts all corporate operations is going to be critical, Mayank Kumar, co-founder & MD, upGrad, says. “Gone are the days when you could take a lot of decisions from (just) gut, experience.” For instance, hiring managers are increasingly using predictive analytics to determine the probability of a candidate taking up a job offer. Similarly, data analytics tells marketers which channels they should focus on for greater impact. That’s good news for strong communicators who can blend the power of words with a sound understanding of numbers. Firms will try to reskill their workforce for these new opportunities but soon realise the slow pace of the process and instead bet on hiring fresh talent, says Anand S, CEO of Gramener.

6. We’ll begin the climate change countdown to 2030. 

From school strikes to Extinction Rebellion, Greta Thunberg to the Green New Deal, public pressure around the climate crisis ratcheted up in 2019 in a way that we, frankly, hadn’t anticipated. Now the final countdown to 2030 begins.

In the next decade, 184 countries must make good on the emission reduction commitments they made in Paris five years ago in order to maintain global temperature rise below 2°C. But those pledges aren’t being met, they were too low in the first place and scientists now warn a 1.5°C target is more advisable. Activists hope the United Nations’ COP26 summit in Glasgow next November will help correct the trajectory.

Just weeks before the summit, Global Citizen will host the largest cause broadcast in history, a concert held simultaneously on five continents. What Gen X and Live Aid did for the Ethiopian famine, Gen Z could do for the climate and inequality. “Sometimes in uncertainty, people are looking for opportunities to unite,” says Global Citizen CEO Hugh Evans. “I think that 2020 is one of those moments.”

7. Climate change will become a pocketbook issue for homeowners, investors and insurers.

In November, a Redfin customer backed out of buying a house in an upscale neighbourhood of Houston, CEO Glenn Kelman recounts. The flood insurance premium on the property was just too expensive. That’s one of the very real ways in which climate change is reshaping our urban geography. Institutional investors are putting pressure on asset managers to price in the climate risk of their holdings, explains Emilie Mazzacurati, CEO of market intelligence firm Four Twenty Seven. Is a property at risk of flood or fire? Will insurance premiums rise? What about local taxes? Will the region lose population and jobs?

Ramesh Nair, CEO & Country Head of JLL India, says asset owners such as pension funds are increasingly demanding sustainable investing strategies from their respective landlords and asset managers. Most pension funds analyse potential impacts both at an individual and at an overall portfolio level. “While traditional factors such as location and quality remain the main force driving property values, environmental performance is an increasingly nuanced field, offering different drivers and benefits for different stakeholders.”

8. Brexit will still monopolise the British and European agenda.

March 29 and October 31 both came and went without the UK leaving the European Union as scheduled. The third Brexit deadline, January 31, could well be missed too, with much hinging on the UK general elections. 

Whatever transpires, Brexit and its mountain of associated issues will remain front and center in 2020 and beyond. Negotiating trade deals, figuring out new operating principles on trade and migration, and settling into a new normal with the European Union will take many years, says Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer. “The UK has done itself an enormous disservice for both its economic realities today and the longer term trajectory,” Bremmer says. “And this is going to be true for a long time.” 

“It isn’t the most important thing facing Britain’s economic future,” counters Jim O’Neill, who sees a bigger threat in deteriorating productivity, skills gaps and inequality. But it is the most distracting issue, he agrees. Expect to see Brexit again in Big Ideas 2021. 

9. We will talk more openly about mental health in the workplace. 

Depression and anxiety alone cost the global economy $1 trillion in lost productivity every year, according to the World Health Organisation. For employers, it is a real talent retention issue, and for employees a growing need. The conversation is urgent, championed by a new generation, yet still tentative. “There’s a real fear from large corporations that they are not set up to handle the rise of that conversation in a way that is safe for the company and safe for the employee,” says Aaron Harvey, founder of the Made of Millions Foundation. Harvey published a guide to mental health in the workplace after coming up short as an employer himself and started the #DearManager social media campaign to encourage conversation. 

Bringing up mental health at work, however, raises issues of privacy, legal exposure and discrimination. Clinical psychologist Ellen Hendriksen recommends that, for legal reasons, only an employee should start the conversation. And because of lingering stigma, they should first gauge their company culture and decide whether there’s a risk in sharing. 

10. Bollywood’s love for the valleys of Switzerland will witness a discernible shift. Its new-found hotspot? India’s hinterland. Film director Akashaditya Lama says the affair has already started. “In the last two to three years, most of Ayushmann Khurrana’s films have been shot in Uttar Pradesh.” So much so that sets of Delhi and Mumbai have been recreated in Noida or Lucknow, Lama adds. In 2018, the UP government extended cash incentives of ?50 lakh to all Indian and overseas Indian filmmakers shooting movies in the state.

Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and some Northeast states have also rolled out subsidy schemes. But it won’t be the end of the road for foreign locations. Instead, 2020 will see new options emerge, such as Georgia and Russia.

11. A slowing economy with rising ad spends?

2020 will be a stellar year for the domestic advertising space if researchers are to be believed. In a recent report, GroupM projected 12-13% growth in ad spend for the next five years. Zenith’s Advertising Expenditure Forecasts pegs India among the world’s top 10 media markets. Interestingly, these predictions come at the end of a year where marketers tread cautiously owing to poor consumer demand. What changes in 2020? Pankaj Vasani, Group CFO, South Asia of Publicis Groupe, is bullish that the government’s efforts (read: stimulus packages and reform measures) will boost sentiment for budget managers. Expect a greater shift in spend towards digital media, e-commerce, mobile-first ads and video-on-demand – all of which have a significant topline impact for brands. Hence, campaign managers can no longer afford to be behind the curve when it comes to technologies such as AI, 3D and virtual reality. “Advertisers not having a nuanced thinking about tech and the marginal economics around it will neither succeed nor survive,” said Vasani.

12. The streaming wars will make their first casualties. 

“In 2020 there will be more money spent on original scripted television than was spent in the entire decade of the 1990s,” says NYU marketing professor Scott Galloway. “In 100 years, we’ll look back on this age and the defining art form will be television.” This year, Apple and Disney launched services to compete with established players Netflix, Amazon and Hulu; HBO Max, Peacock (from NBC) and Quibi will follow in 2020. “(Netflix) used to be the only game in town and now, all of a sudden, it’s the Olympics,” Galloway says. “The most creative, well-resourced companies in the world are all in this business.”

For Apple, Amazon or Disney, streaming services are a lure, he explains. They create consumer loyalty and offer monetisation opportunities across amusement parks, action figures, iPhones or Amazon Prime deliveries. Netflix still has first-mover advantage, but for pure players like it or Hulu —who don’t have ancillary businesses and must pay Apple, Amazon or Google a toll to reach our devices — the streaming wars are about to get bloody.

13. Fashion, the KonMari way.

Marie Kondo’s minimalism-inspired approach will reflect in fashion choices as consumers will junk the blingy for the aesthetic and the cumbersome for the comfortable. “Shoes that breathe as opposed to those that suffocate… the idea is a simple one. Comfort comes first. And fashion next,” says brand expert Harish Bijoor. Retailers concur. Shantanu, Uniqlo India’s head of marketing, says the desi consumer’s preferences will change from what appeals to others to what’s best for herself.

But the change will be demand-driven with brands re-defining fashion for consumers. “Funnily and rightly so, fashion will lead and comfort will follow, ” Bijoor adds.

14. Your ability to focus will be your most important skill. 

If you’ve found yourself mindlessly scrolling through your Instagram feed at work without even remembering how you got there, you’re not alone.

“Each time employees reach for their phone or tend to a distraction, they are pulled away from their work, relentlessly,” warns Brian Solis, author of ‘Lifescale: How to Live a More Creative, Productive, and Happy Life.’ “This is having an incredible, understudied impact on employee productivity, creativity and happiness.” There is surprisingly little solid research on the topic, but a couple of studies estimate the productivity cost comes to many hundreds of billions of dollars in the U.S. alone.

“Although distractions aren’t necessarily your fault, they are your responsibility,” writes Nir Eyal, author of “Indistractable: How to Control Your Attention and Choose Your Life”. Eyal offers strategies that can help you reclaim your focus: master your internal triggers, plan your day, make pacts with yourself or your friends. Oh, and control your tech. “The world is splitting into two types of people,” Eyal concludes. “Those who allow their attention and their lives to be manipulated by others, and those who proudly call themselves indistractable.” 

15. Central banks will hold rates.

Last week, the RBI decided to leave interest rates unchanged -- and that could be a sign of things to come. As the global economy stabilises and trade tensions ease, don’t be surprised if most central banks hold rates, Tamal Bandyopadhyay, Consulting Editor with Business Standard, says. The US Federal Reserve seems to be done with rate cuts for the time being, as do the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, he adds. Brexit will determine the Bank of England’s stance. 

Indian banks, meanwhile, have their work cut out: their exposure to troubled non-banking finance companies could mean more bad assets. Is consolidation the panacea for all ills? “Probably not – consolidation brings down the number of banks but not the market share of government-owned banks. Therein lies the problem,” Bandyopadhyay says. 

16. Goodbye paper!

Medium and large businesses will bid adieu to manual filing of invoices. That’ll be possible with the adoption of web-based robotic process automation (RPA) platforms and machine learning technologies that understand the written word, says Milan Seth, EVP at Automation Anywhere. His prediction? AI models will replace most paper documents over the next five years. The shift is already underway at Indian banks: HDFC Bank slashed its average loan processing time by half using RPA while ICICI Bank uses blockchain for paperless trades.

17. The Asian century will dawn... under a dark cloud.

In 2020, Asian economies will be larger than the rest of the world combined for the first time since the 19th century. Asia will also be home to more than half of the world’s middle class. The world’s center of gravity is undoubtedly shifting east. But this Asian century could start off unsteady: the International Monetary Fund warned growth in Asia would slow down, with a sluggish China, tensions between Japan and Korea, and Hong Kong paralysed by protests. India’s growth fell to its slowest pace since 2013.

Slowing growth in Asia will put the system to the test, warns Esther Duflo, an MIT economist and 2019 Nobel Prize recipient. “China and India have been the engine of taking a lot of people out of poverty in the last 30 years,” she explains. “In a world where inequalities are exploding and the rich are getting richer, one thing that was true is that the very poor were also becoming richer. If China and India slow down and stop doing that, that is going to be a big question for the legitimacy of the entire capitalism project.” 

18. Expect India to ring in more reforms and capitalise on US-China trade tensions.

Economist Ritesh Kumar Singh says a temporary truce could be on the horizon as the two economic giants face slowing growth, but a long-lasting agreement is not on the cards. This spells opportunity for India but the ball is squarely in New Delhi's court. Take advantage of this conflict and turn it into long-term benefits when it comes to manufacturing and pharmaceuticals, advises Ryan Patel, board director at Drucker School of Management. The Centre is seized of the opportunity: its planning to dole out manufacturing incentives to Tesla, GlaxoSmithKline and 322 other countries to set up factories here. But more needs to be done. “The net gain to India will depend on internal reforms of land and labour, among others. Unfortunately that’s not happening,” Singh says. Remember, countries like Vietnam and Thailand have a headstart in global manufacturing and are seen as the biggest gainers from the trade war.

19. The age of the entrepreneur-king will end...

The collapse of WeWork reminded us all that there is more to a business than a good story. NYU's Scott Galloway predicts a 50+% decline in the value of privately traded unicorns in 2020 and an end to the reign of charismatic entrepreneurs. “Consumer companies posing as tech SAAS (software as a service) companies have replaced profits and margin with vision and growth,” he says. They’re incinerators, he adds, companies burning cash to buy growth without any prospect of ever getting to positive operating margins. Uber’s failed IPO was the warning shot — and WeWork’s the confirmation — that public markets won’t be seduced by the fast-talking founders and clever storytelling that swayed private investors. Capital, he predicts, will take back the power.

20. … a new kind of startup founder will emerge. 

Markets have caught on to the general fatigue with companies built on bombast and fanciful valuations. The business world has grown tired of unicorns and their charismatic —and occasionally destructive— founders. Now, there’s a new breed of equid on the scene: zebras. Hearken founder and CEO Jennifer Brandel, who co-wrote the Zebra manifesto, explains: Zebras are startups focused on fixing real-world problems by building sustainable and profitable businesses that grow at a manageable pace, refusing the usual cycles of funding rounds and blitzscaling. “It’s about being based on values besides ‘grow fast and exit,’” she says. Zebra founders are largely women and minority entrepreneurs who were left out of the venture capital model for years and now say they’re simply not interested. They’re not serial entrepreneurs looking for the first chance to sell their companies and cash in on stock options. “Unicorns are the biggest nonprofits you’ll ever see,” Brandel says. “I think the scales are starting to fall from people’s eyes.”

Caroline Fairchild contributed reporting. Art direction by Greg Lee. 

What will you be watching in the year ahead? Share in the comments or publish a post, article or video on LinkedIn with #BigIdeas2020.