The Big Idea Inside the Ginormously Big Idea in Agriculture for 2016

In this series, professionals predict the ideas and trends that will shape 2016. Read the posts here, then write your own (use #BigIdeas2016 in your piece).

I don’t think there’s any doubt what the Ginormously Big Idea in agriculture is going to be in 2016. And I’ll tell you right now – it’ll be the Ginormously Big Idea in 2017, too. And 2018. And in some form or fashion, for the next few decades.

That idea is how we both mitigate and adapt to the complex challenges posed by climate change. Especially how we can grow more food while using fewer “inputs” – water, fertilizer, energy and arable land – to do it. That’s the mega-idea because it reflects what may well be the fundamental challenge of our century. With global population projected to swell by 2.5 billion between now and 2050, we need agriculture and the food supply to keep up. But given our finite supply of water and the fact that the atmosphere is filling with greenhouse gas emissions – 13 percent of them from the agricultural sector itself – we clearly have to meet these demands more sustainably.

How do we accomplish that “sustainably” piece? We’ll need dozens of different solutions, but the focus at our company in 2016 – what you might call the Big Idea within the Ginormous one – is going to be on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The good news is we already know how to cut them drastically. In fact, we’re so confident in our knowledge that we recently committed to bring our own operations to carbon neutrality – no net greenhouse gas emissions – by 2021.

By that we actually mean that all our greenhouse gas emissions – including non-carbon-based ones like nitrous oxide – will either be reduced or offset so that our footprint will effectively be zero.

To understand how it will work, think of two concentric circles. The inner circle is our seed-growing business, which we operate partly on our own but mostly through partnerships with contract farmers. By working with our partners in this business to adopt certain agricultural practices, we’ll move our seed business toward carbon neutrality.

The outer and much larger circle is made up of our farmer customers. We’re working to develop a program to provide incentives to customers who adopt or expand carbon neutral crop production methods – in exchange for part of their carbon reduction value. We will use those reductions as offsets to neutralize our remaining carbon footprint.

One question, of course, is what specific practices we’ll be adopting.

Some are well-established, like planting cover crops and reducing tillage. Both of these enhance soil health, reduce water erosion and pollution, and help keep carbon stored in the soil. But adoption needs to be accelerated.

Another is increasing crops yields. Everybody understands that by planting trees — which take up CO2 and fix carbon — we can offset emissions. The same is true for corn, soybeans and even tomatoes. By increasing yields, and in turn fixing more carbon, we can both improve food production and reduce CO2.

Finally, the newest piece of the puzzle is precision agriculture, which is going to be accelerated by the data science revolution.

Because of advances in sensor and information technology, farmers today can understand their greenhouse gas emissions with far greater precision than was possible only a few years ago. Their farms, in a sense, can be hooked up to a wearable activity tracker.

It’s not difficult. Every part of a farmer’s fields can now be mapped with GPS or studied via drone or satellite imagery, while sensors in those fields can monitor conditions like water levels and fertilizer concentrations. Then the farmer’s tractor can be programmed to supply information about where and what to plant and in what density, as well as how much fertilizer to use and where to use it, and when and where to water and, conversely, not water.

Consider how this can play out in terms of greenhouse gas emissions from nitrogen applications:

Today, farmers seeking the best harvests sometimes over-apply nitrogen or apply it in places where it may not be needed. This can lead to unnecessary greenhouse gas emissions to the air and nutrient loss to waterways. With the new digital technology, however, farmers can make more informed decisions, and thereby apply nitrogen more efficiently.

The upshot? Greater average nutrient uptake, higher total yield, and reduced emissions and runoff.

These improvements deliver exactly what we need in agriculture today – more production with an equal or reduced environmental footprint.

And on one condition, they will enable us to meet the profound challenges with which the 21st century confronts us. The condition: Everybody in agriculture needs to do their part.

Consider: If we could bring corn and soybean production in the U.S. Corn Belt alone to a carbon-neutral position – which, again, we already know how to do – we could eliminate annual emissions of 100 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. That’s the equivalent of reducing oil consumption by 233 million barrels per year.

Not too shabby. But it will take collaboration – a pretty good idea in itself, especially when harnessed to a Really Big Idea, in the context of a Ginormous One.