Big Global Trends Shaping the Future of humanity & nations

Big Global Trends

War, pandemic, economic turbulence, and shifts in political power both within nations and at the international level mean the world is quite different than it was at the start of 2020. These major trends will continue to reshape society, and we can only expect the pace of change to increase. Global megatrends are macroeconomic and geostrategic forces that are shaping our world, and our collective futures in profound ways. The implications of these forces are broad and varied, and they will present us with both tremendous opportunities to seize—as well as extremely dangerous risks to mitigate.

1.?????? Rapid Aging of the Global Population: The world is experiencing an unprecedented rate of aging, with many developed countries facing declining birth rates and a growing elderly population. India, however, is a demographic outlier, boasting a median age of just 27 years compared to China’s 40. This youthful demographic positions India as a key beneficiary of global aging, offering a large workforce to drive economic growth and support global industries.

Aging Population and Demographic Dividend: While India’s youthful population is a potential advantage, it’s also a double-edged sword. Without improvements in education, technology, research, and a business-friendly environment, the demographic dividend could turn into a liability. An inadequately equipped young generation may become restless, rebellious, and counterproductive, potentially leading to social instability.

Demographic Disasters in China, Europe, and Japan: Several key regions, including China, Europe, and Japan, are grappling with severe demographic challenges. China, after decades of the one-child policy, is now facing a shrinking workforce and an aging population, which could hinder its long-term economic growth. Europe and Japan are also dealing with similar issues, characterized by low birth rates, aging populations, and a declining working-age demographic. These trends threaten to create economic stagnation, reduce innovation, and increase the burden on social welfare systems, potentially leading to a demographic disaster that could reshape global markets and labor dynamics.

2.?????? De-globalization: As nations shift focus toward domestic production and supply chains, India stands to gain. China, which benefited the most from globalization over the past four decades, faces new challenges. In contrast, India’s labor costs are half those of China, making it an attractive alternative for global manufacturing. The country’s manufacturing sector, currently valued at $450 billion, is expected to reach $1.5 trillion, increasing its GDP contribution from 15% to 21%.

De-globalization and Economic Dependencies: De-globalization isn’t necessarily a clear win for India. While it could reduce reliance on China, it might also lead to monopolies, diminishing competition. Despite efforts to diversify, India remains heavily dependent on China for critical sectors, resulting in significant foreign exchange outflows. A sustainable export-to-GDP ratio above 25% would ideally fuel growth, but India’s growth remains driven by debt. Additionally, while electric vehicles (EVs) aim to reduce petroleum imports, renewable energy adoption is slow, with 60% of power still generated from thermal plants. Productivity, innovation, and competitiveness—previously driven by globalization—have lagged, as seen in India’s low per capita income compared to the global average of $4,500. Moreover, 60% of the population relies on low-margin, labor-intensive farming, and essential agricultural reforms have been stalled by political opposition.

3.?????? Digitization: India is at the forefront of the digital revolution, with initiatives like ONDC (Open Network for Digital Commerce) and ONDC (Open Network for Digital Credit) transforming business practices. The country is a leader in digital payments, with Aadhar enabling 60% of work transactions digitally. The transition to a cashless economy is well underway, supported by innovations like the Health ID, which promises to revolutionize healthcare services.

Digitization in India: Digitization is boosting growth in India’s services sector, improving revenue collection, and expanding access to banking and lending for lower economic strata. While India leads in digital payments, it lags in AI adoption, industrial automation, and agricultural productivity enhancements—key areas for coping with erratic weather patterns and ensuring better incomes.

4.?????? Decarbonization: As the world moves toward sustainable energy, India is making strides in decarbonization. With 70% of future energy needs expected to come from non-conventional sources like solar and wind, India aims to reduce its dependence on oil imports, which currently range from $80-90 billion annually. This energy shift will empower India’s six lakh villages, where daily energy consumption is currently just 800W compared to 9000W in the USA.

Decarbonization and Energy Challenges: India’s decarbonization efforts often seem more aspirational than actionable. Despite ambitious targets, progress is hindered by political setbacks, such as the government reneging on power purchase agreements (PPAs), which has severely impacted the sector. Compared to other economies, India’s pace in adopting renewable energy remains slow, with 60% of power still generated from thermal sources. The culture of offering electricity freebies by vested interests further derails progress, leaving India dependent on energy imports. Despite sizable forex reserves, these are offset by government foreign loans. Additionally, IT exports remain concentrated in low-margin, high-volume outsourcing, missing out on high-value areas like AI, drones, quantum computing, and automation—industries driving the new industrial revolution.

5.?????? The Rise of Intelligent Machines: In 2024, artificial intelligence (AI) is a part of everyday life and virtually no industry or aspect of our lives is untouched by it. While it’s undoubtedly driving innovation and creating efficiencies in fields as diverse as healthcare, space travel and ecological conservation, it’s also causing a fair amount of fear and uncertainty. The threat to jobs is real – although it will undoubtedly create new opportunities, just as it creates redundancies. There are also concerns that handing over control of our lives to algorithms can exacerbate divisions and inequality in society. In truth, no one knows where the AI revolution will take us as a society or as a species, but our actions in 2024 will be critical to setting us on a path that leads to a happy outcome.

Rise of Disruptive Technologies: The proliferation of disruptive technologies is reshaping industries, economies, and societies at an unprecedented pace. Advances in artificial intelligence, Blockchain, quantum computing, biotechnology, and renewable energy are transforming traditional business models and creating new economic opportunities. These technologies are driving the fourth industrial revolution, leading to increased automation, smarter systems, and greater efficiency. However, they also pose significant risks, such as job displacement, cybersecurity threats, and ethical dilemmas. The rapid adoption of these technologies will require societies to adapt quickly, ensuring that the benefits are widely shared while mitigating the potential downsides.

6.?????? Climate Change Increasingly a Political Issue: If we follow the science, it’s clear that the urgency of averting the catastrophic effects of climate change is rapidly escalating as we enter 2024. Often, we are counting on technology to play a critical role, and innovations like clean energy and carbon capture will be part of the solution. However, the willingness of individuals and organizations to take responsibility, as well as the way that the political and economic trends mentioned here play out, will probably be even more critical. How much pain people will be willing to take on in order to reduce their environmental footprint will become an increasingly contentious issue in politics. 2024 represents a critical opportunity to find out whether the will exists to make changes and tough decisions needed to avoid some very nasty shocks in the near future.

Resource Scarcity: As the global population grows and consumption patterns evolve, the demand for natural resources is reaching unsustainable levels. Resource scarcity, particularly in water, energy, and raw materials, is becoming a critical issue, exacerbated by climate change and environmental degradation. This scarcity is leading to increased competition for resources, higher prices, and geopolitical tensions. Countries and businesses are being forced to innovate, adopt sustainable practices, and invest in alternative resources to address these challenges. The shift towards a circular economy, renewable energy, and sustainable agriculture will be essential in managing resource scarcity and ensuring long-term global stability and prosperity.

7.?????? Elections Will Determine the Course of Democracy In coming Decade: Elections bring the opportunity for change, and 2024 will see leadership contests in a number of countries where a swing in the balance of power could have profound global implications. Citizens in the US, European Union, India, UK and Russia will be among those taking to the ballots (with varying degrees of?opposition?to incumbent powers.) In many of these nations, there is growing polarization between progressive and conservative, or nationalist and internationalist parties and voters. Victory is likely to embolden the winners – whatever side of the divide they occupy – to believe they have a remit to enact further social change. Whichever way the cookie crumbles, this is likely to impact the course of every other trend on this list in 2024 and throughout the second half of the decade.

8.?????? Turbulent Times for Economies: A continuing slowdown in global economic growth is?predicted for 2024, threatening widespread knock-on effects on many aspects of society. Hard economic times typically result in governments choosing to reduce spending on public services and utilities, job cuts, a reduction in living standards and a growth in civil unrest. Slow growth also threatens national and international efforts to hit carbon net zero targets, which could have severe consequences. The possibility of a recession in the USA, a slowdown in China’s growth, and the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel are all factors. At the same time, growth in emerging countries, including Brazil, India, Mexico and Turkey, will lead us into an era where we will witness drastic changes in the overall balance of global economic power.

Shift in Global Economic Power: The global economic landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with economic power gradually shifting from the West to the East. Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are gaining prominence as they experience rapid growth, while traditional economic giants like the United States and Europe face slower growth and aging populations. Countries like India and China are expected to play increasingly dominant roles in global trade, investment, and innovation, altering the balance of power in international relations and economic governance.

9.?????? The Evolution of Work: Changes to the way we work will continue to have an impact on many aspects of our lives and society. Although some companies are implementing back-to-office policies, remote and hybrid working remain at far higher levels than they were before the pandemic. This has the effect of improving global mobility, with workers no longer tied down to living in areas close to employment centers. However, it can also lead to increased social isolation and social cohesion. Managing this change will be an important challenge for organizations and individuals in 2024.

10.?? Rapid Urbanization: Urbanization continues to accelerate globally, particularly in developing regions. By 2050, it is estimated that 68% of the world's population will live in urban areas, up from 55% today. This shift is driving the growth of megacities, transforming economies, and creating new challenges and opportunities. Rapid urbanization is contributing to economic development by concentrating resources, talent, and innovation in cities. However, it also presents significant challenges, including infrastructure demands, housing shortages, increased pollution, and the need for sustainable urban planning. Managing this urban explosion effectively will be crucial for achieving long-term economic and environmental sustainability.

11.?? The Generation Gap: The gap between generations in terms of wealth and property ownership will continue to drive global and social change in 2024. According to?research conducted in 2023, the median wealth of millennials (born early eighties to late nineties) is less than half that of baby boomers (born mid-fifties to mid-sixties) at the same age. This could possibly lead to reduced social mobility as well as political polarization, bringing with it the danger of disenfranchised voters being drawn to populist or extremist political parties.

12.?? Ongoing Urbanization: By 2050, the UN?projects?that 66 percent of the world’s population will live in urban areas – up from 56 percent in 2022. While this has the potential to drive economic growth and prosperity, it also brings other challenges, such as overcrowding, pollution and increased cost of living. Tackling the impact of this huge change in many people’s way of life will be a priority for governments and industry in the coming years. Resources will also be needed to mitigate the effects of the brain drain on those who stay behind, many of whom are already underserved by essential services like power, healthcare and online connectivity.

13.?? Culture Wars: The term culture war refers to an ongoing polarization of society, often characterized by a left versus right or liberal versus conservative debate and largely conducted via social as well as what is increasingly called legacy media. The impact of this on society is clearly driven by the emergence of the internet as a tool that can be used to find information, including disinformation and propaganda. Much has been written in recent years about the echo chamber effect of online discourse in an ecosystem ruled by algorithms. Increasingly, we see audiences steered towards content that’s likely to confirm their biases while also inflaming feelings of injustice or inequality. Issues such as immigration, conspiracy theories and social justice stir heated feelings on both sides of the debate, but it isn’t just idle chit-chat. Divisive views spread via social media increasingly inform political policy, as can be seen from the?rise of populist parties and policies?around the globe, and even stoke?extremist terrorism.

14.?? Rethinking Education: Gone are the days when education was only for the young. Work is changing, so the models of learning needed to prepare for work are changing, too. The speed of technological innovation means opportunities are opening up in industries that didn’t even exist when much of today’s workforce was at school. In advanced nations, there’s a shift towards lifelong learning, partly enabled by the emergence of online and remote learning technology. Employers will increasingly recognize the importance of reskilling and up skilling valuable workers, particularly as longer lifespans and later retirement lead to an older workforce. In emerging economies, we will see a growing demand for teachers as more of the population moves out of poverty. Again, new models of delivering education will be needed to serve the citizens of crowded?megacities?as well as children in remote rural areas.

15.?? Migration and Movement: Between 1970 and 2020, the number of people living in a country other than the one they were born in more than?tripled. In 2024, some will be refugees fleeing war, some will be economic migrants in search of a better life, and some will be looking to escape to parts of the world where life is not yet overly disrupted by rising temperatures and sea levels. Economies will continue to benefit from an influx of mostly young, able-bodied and active workers. And fears of the strain that could be put on utilities and public services, or the impact of new arrivals on indigenous populations, will continue to fuel political division. In advanced economies, the offer of jobs, visas and education opportunities will increasingly be used to plug the skills gap and in trade negotiations with nations with emerging consumer markets.

Conclusion: These trends underscore the complexity of India’s path forward, where opportunities coexist with significant challenges. Balancing these factors will be key to shaping a resilient and prosperous future. These global mega trends are interconnected and will shape the future of the world economy, geopolitics, and societal structures. Navigating these challenges and opportunities will require strategic foresight, collaboration, and innovation at both national and global levels.