The Big Fight for 2 degrees

World today is going through a huge crisis with respect to the rehabilitation of the refugees. There are more than 10 million people who don't technically belong to any country. People are being forced to flee their countries due to wars and conflicts.

Where do the refugees go ? What kind of life do they live in a new country. How do the natives handle the situation - considering - 86% of 21.3 million refugees are being hosted by low and middle income countries. New refugees add to the already existing pressure on the natural resources and infrastructure of such hosting countries. But someone has to do it.

Now imagine - while the world is struggling to resettle the 10 million stateless people, suddenly we get a new influx of refugees, even when there is no war. A new set of refugees are expected to start looking for resettlement very soon. These are the Climate Refugees. Refugees who will move towards inlands because their homes have submerged under water. Submerged due to rising climate temperature that melts glaciers, resulting in rise of sea level.

75% of Maldives could go underwater by 2100. With no island measuring more than about 2 metres above sea level, the country is the lowest on earth and thus among those most vulnerable to the effects of climate change and rising sea levels.

A study by researchers at the US Geological Survey (USGS), the Deltares Institute in the Netherlands and Hawaii University has found that many small islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans will be uninhabitable for humans by the middle of this century. That is much earlier than previously thought. Experts say the findings underline the looming climate change driven migration crisis that is predicted to see hundreds of millions of people forced from their homes in the coming years.

While Maldives is determined to be a carbon neutral nation by this year, it is truly not bearing the brunt of its own doing alone. Climate change is a unique phenomenon which cant not be fought by one nation alone. For Maldives to not vanish, the whole world needs to work towards ensuring the temperature rise in next few years doesn't go above 2 degrees.

It may be difficult for one to believe - What will happen if the global temperature rises by 1.5C when compared to the catastrophic effect if the rise is 2C. Carbon Brief has extracted data from around 70 peer-reviewed climate studies to show how global warming is projected to affect the world and its regions. It is worth going through the impact comparisons done for different parameters on how they will change under a temperature rise of 1.5C vs 2C.

As for sea level rise, relative to 1.5 degrees, 2 degrees would mean 10 centimeter higher levels and a 30 percent higher rate of increase by 2100.Coral reefs, though, are pretty screwed no matter what. In a 1.5 degree scenario, the percentage of the world’s coral reefs at risk hits 90 percent in 2050 but declines to 70 percent in 2100. In a 2 degree scenario, they’re all at risk.

At our present rate of emissions, our carbon budget for a good (66 percent) chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees will be used up in six years. Except, oops, that graphic is four years old, so now it’s down to two years

To hit the brakes at 1.5 degrees, global carbon emissions would need to immediately begin plunging, faster than they ever have, and hit zero by 2050 (and then go negative*):

Schleussner tells Carbon Brief**:

“Scientific findings…show that it is both physically and economically feasible to limit warming to below 1.5°C by 2100, after temporarily exceeding 1.5°C in the 2050s (but still staying well below 2°C)." But doing so involves relying on being able to “suck” carbon dioxide out of the air, using so-called negative emissions technologies (NETs). 

Even if overshooting and coming back down to 1.5C were technically possible, there’s no guarantee the consequences for ecosystems would be the same as if we hadn’t cross the 1.5C boundary at all. Whether or not climate change impacts are “reversible” is a very important research topic right now, says Schleussner.

By delaying the necessary work of decarbonization, we are consigning millions of people in tropical regions to less food and in the Mediterranean to less water. Now, the fight doesnt stop here. Next is to stay under 2C or 3C? Then under 3C or 4C. The longer we delay, the more human suffering and irreversible damage to ecosystems we inscribe into our collective future.

And hence THE BIG FIGHT FOR STAYING UNDER 2C. Ideally we should want to stay under 1.5C - but that looks like a lost battle with the lack of tangible action being seen from few leading economies (specially Mr.Trump).

*Refer : https://vox.com **Refer : https://www.carbonbrief.org