'Big' cities: Austin reaches another milestone in the latest ranking

Last week the Census Bureau published its latest ranking of the fastest-growing cities in the country. Texas again featured prominently: Of the top-100 fastest-growing cities (minimum 50,000 residents), nearly one out of four were in Texas. The Greater Austin region nearly swept the top-three, with perennial contenders Georgetown (1), Kyle (3), and Leander (4) each growing by more than 10 percent between July 2021 and July 2022, according to the new Census estimates. While those three Texas communities are accustomed to seeing themselves on this list, Santa Cruz, California, was a surprising second-place finish, adding nearly 7,000 residents for a growth rate of about 13 percent. Post a comment with your theory, as most of the local media coverage is gated.

And to great fanfare--or what passes as fanfare among the rowdy demographer set--Austin is now officially the tenth-largest city in the US. Austin's modest addition of about 5,000 residents, combined with San Jose's continued decline, moved Austin ahead of the Silicon Valley city, as of July 2022. It may be several years before Austin (975,000 residents) threatens Dallas (1,300,000 residents) for ninth place, but it is steadily approaching the one-million mark, even though some reports indicate that in-migration may be slowing.

However, Austin wasn't the only city to surpass San Jose in the latest estimates. So did Jacksonville, Florida. And Fort Worth isn't far behind, either. Jacksonville on the list of America's largest cities? Or Austin, for that matter? The list can be surprising. Try asking a random non-demographer type to name the ten-largest cities in the US. Most people will get the top-three--New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago--correct, if not in that order. But then it can fall apart from there, with a healthy dose of regional bias. Many people incorrectly rank Philadelphia (sixth) ahead of Houston (fourth), for example, when they are separated by more than 700,000 residents. And many (non-Texans) completely overlook seventh-place San Antonio, despite it having only about 10 percent fewer residents than fifth-place Phoenix.

Texans usually overestimate the number of people living in Dallas. Go figure.

Yes, perceptions of city size are influenced by our urban geography. Most people don't differentiate between the end of one city's boundaries and the beginning of another city's boundaries within a metropolitan area. When most people think of Chicago, for example, their frame of reference isn't limited to just the 2,670,000 residents living in the city limits. Their perception of "Chicago" is shaped by the 9,500,000 people in the metro area, as well as urban form, culture, and a wide variety of other factors that go into defining a place.

In that context, how do we interpret this latest ranking of the "largest" cities? One way is to take after the social scientists at the Census and be more precise in our language. Here are the top-twenty most populous cities (July 2022):

1. New York, NY 8,335,897 residents
2. Los Angeles, CA 3,822,238
3. Chicago, IL 2,665,039
4. Houston, TX 2,302,878
5. Phoenix, AZ 1,644,409
6. Philadelphia, PA 1,567,258
7. San Antonio, TX 1,472,909
8. San Diego, CA 1,381,162
9. Dallas, TX 1,299,544
10. Austin, TX 974,447
11. Jacksonville, FL 971,319
12. San Jose, CA 971,233
13. Fort Worth, TX 956,709
14. Columbus, OH 907,971
15. Charlotte, NC 897,720
16. Indianapolis, IN 880,621
17. San Francisco, CA 808,437
18. Seattle, WA 749,256
19. Denver, CO 713,252
20. Oklahoma City, OK 694,800

Now, let's consider other ways of thinking about what a "big" city could mean for people. Here's that same list of top-twenty cities, reordered by land area:

1. Jacksonville, FL 747 square miles
2. Houston, TX 640
3. Oklahoma City, OK 606
4. Phoenix, AZ 518
5. San Antonio, TX 499
6. Los Angeles, CA 469
7. Indianapolis, IN 362
8. Fort Worth, TX 347
9. Dallas, TX 340
10. San Diego, CA 326
11. Austin, TX 320
12. Charlotte, NC 308
13. New York, NY 300
14. Chicago, IL 228
15. Columbus, OH 220
16. San Jose, CA 178
17. Denver, CO 153
18. Philadelphia, PA 134
19. Seattle, WA 84
20. San Francisco, CA 47

Same thing here, but this time with housing density:

1. New York, NY 12,044 housing units per square mile
2. San Francisco, CA 8,668
3. Chicago, IL 5,544
4. Philadelphia, PA 5,409
5. Seattle, WA 4,391
6. Los Angeles, CA 3,187
7. Denver, CO 2,254
8. San Jose, CA 1,919
9. Columbus, OH 1,888
10. Dallas, TX 1,685
11. San Diego, CA 1,684
12. Houston, TX 1,559
13. Austin, TX 1,389
14. Charlotte, NC 1,232
15. Phoenix, AZ 1,217
16. San Antonio, TX 1,188
17. Indianapolis, IN 1,101
18. Fort Worth, TX 998
19. Jacksonville, FL 551
20. Oklahoma City, OK 491

I lived in Nashville for a few years after spending most of the last twenty years in Austin. People like to make the comparison, but inevitably say something to the effect of one "feels" different than the other. That can mean a lot of things, but it usually has something to do with urbanization. Nashville (684,000 residents) is the twenty-first largest city by population but is nearly 50% larger than Austin in terms of land area with less than one-half the housing density. The difference in population matters, but that's not the entire story.

Or perhaps a better way of putting that would be to say that size matters, but the way it matters is in the eye of the beholder.