Big Changes Ahead for eCommerce: Trump’s Win and German Coalition Collapse – What Does It Mean for Trade?

With Trump back in office and the German coalition government collapsing, international trade might be heading into choppy waters. Let’s unpack what these developments could mean for eCommerce and DTC brands worldwide.

Here’s what I’m thinking:

1?? Trump’s Proposed Tariffs – A Supply Chain Shake-Up?

Trump has talked about imposing tariffs of 10-20% on most imports, with a hefty 60% on goods from China.

Many DTC brands I work with rely heavily on Chinese suppliers, so these tariffs could be a huge blow.

Will brands start looking at local manufacturing options to avoid those extra costs?

2?? EU-US Trade Tensions Heating Up:

Trump’s criticism of the U.S.-EU trade deficit and his push to get European manufacturers to set up shop in the U.S. could lead to a new wave of trade tensions.

If tariffs come into play, European brands could find it harder and more expensive to reach American consumers.

This could force EU-based eCommerce businesses to refocus on local markets instead.

3?? Will Domestic Manufacturing Finally Get Its Moment?

With supply chains under pressure and tariffs looming, could this be the tipping point that drives more brands to explore domestic manufacturing?

It’s no small feat, but a lot of brands may see this as an opportunity to build a more resilient, homegrown supply chain.

If you are in consumer electronics or anything around semi-conductors, you probably won't have an easy time finding a domestic supplier.

4?? What About Prices?

If import costs rise, brands will likely have to pass some of that onto consumers.

With inflation already squeezing wallets, higher prices could hit consumer spending hard, making it crucial for brands to rethink their pricing and supply strategies.

Since VC money was pulled from the DTC space for long, it is a question whether brands will be able to subsidise the price increase or pass it onto already suffering consumers.

5?? Key Moves to Consider for eCommerce Brands Right Now:

? Diversify Sourcing – Time to look beyond China? Southeast Asia, Latin America, and even domestic suppliers might become more attractive options.

? Consider Local Production – It could be time to start small with local manufacturing options, even if it’s just a percentage of your inventory.

? Focus on Home Markets – European brands may need to shift attention inward if access to the U.S. market becomes pricier.

The landscape is shifting, and fast. As eCommerce players, we’re going to need to be more agile than ever.

What’s your take? Do you find these points a bit paranoid or is it better to be cautious?