Big ?? Buy BTC ?? PubCos & ??? Majors Look to ???? DCs: Vibe Check CXVII
Mario Andres Gutierrez, Msc
Critical Energy & Digital Infrastructure | Email in Contact Info
Welcome to the latest issue of the Vibe Check! Vibe Check Covers the intersection of BTC ?? , data centers ??, and energy ??through a lens of orange pills and memes.
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The Overview Vibe
Bitcoin dove below $100K on the back of the first wave of tariffs enacted by the new Trump administration. Tether and Lighting Labs are teaming up to put USDT stablecoins on top of Bitcoin. As a consequence of the Stargate announcements, institutions look at public BTC miners as attractive entry points into the race for AI. Natural gas continues to be the fastest horse to stand up electrons for data centers.
During the first downward difficulty adjustment period in 3+ months, hashprice fell to a ~ two-week low. Hashrate shot up to an all-time high of ~834 EH/s. Marginally economic ASICs like S19jpros would most likely shut down before chasing falling hashprice, suggesting miners energized new generation ASICs this week as fleet refreshes or expansions. I expect the difficulty to outpace price as new-gen ASICs rip hashrate upward. Ouch
As hashprice continues to trip horizontally, M&A and HPC strategies stay caliente (that means hot lol) in the new year. PJM-focused Bitfarms entered into a Binding LOI to sell their Yguazu, Paraguay site to internationally focused HIVE Digital. While still finishing the first phase, the milestone-based deal structure markets the 200 MW turnkey site at $425K/MW (including $19M in power deposits). The sale looks like a win-win as BITF frees up capital to reinvest into its core position in the United States while HIVE can double down next door to its existing 100 MW site in the hydropower-rich country of Paraguay.
Stargazed with Stargate, the AI/HPC potential of many public Bitcoin miners entices Wallstreet and global investors. A week after RIOT announced a formal evaluation of AI HPC application to their open 600 MW capacity in Corsicana, Texas, big whale hedge fund D.E. Shaw has reportedly taken a stake in the miner. Across the other side of Texas, Masa Son stays hungry for power after Stargate. Softbank placed a $50M PIPE in Cipher Mining, which is HELLA LONG AI/HPC compatible sites in load zone west. With investors circling the AI/HPC narrative, Bitfarms also announced to enter evaluations for their assets across PJM. That DeepSeek FUD seems to be marginal at best based on these latest moves.
With a 360 MW GUCCI GAS power plant being built as part of the first Stargate project in Abilene, Texas, IOCs (international oil companies) are going full send into natural gas plant development. Fast following ExxonMobil, Chevron announced it will be partnering with GE Vernoa (with investment partner Engine No.1) to build out a multi-gigawatt co-located power plant and data center. The first project is expected to leverage seven U.S.-made GE Vernova 7HA natural gas turbines (SKIP DAT CUE CAUSE YOU CHEVRON SON!) and is expected to leverage large CCUS to sell all the carbon credits to Europe. The irony of Engine No.1 anti-Big Oil campaign to cop a board seat at XOM and then leaning into Gucci gas plants is a great lesson in “plata es plata”.
As generation development is ballin out, wholesale energy prices are still expected to rise across the United States in 2025. The only markets with power prices that are expected to drop are the Northwest and ERCOT due to increases in hydroelectric and solar generation. Gucci gas is expected to rise, though I am bullish on operators to start drilling real fast. Retail is expected to rise a bit, but is more or less marginally priced once you account for inflation.
Man, what a first month of the year! Thanks for making it through the Vibe Check! Enjoy the BTC ?? , Datacenters ??, and Energy ?? specific headlines below. IT IS NAPE WEEK IN HOUSTON! Pack your blazer, shoot me a note, and we can grab time. Remember to subscribe, call your mom, and stay hydrated! Don’t forget to consolidate UTXOs, and shout out the recently cleared mempool.
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Sources: Hashrate Index1, Bitbo2
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Don’t go into debt trying to afford guacamole during Super Bowl weekend. Why Orange man no make tariff exceptions for Avocados :(. lol.