Biden's "imperial overstretch" is deplorable
Biden’s “imperial overstretch” is deplorable
He ignores history, leading America down a perilous path.
Friday, November 10, 2023. By B. Kumaravadivelu
In his 1987 book,?The Rise and Fall of Great Powers, historian Paul Kennedy used the term “imperial overstretch” to refer to an empire extending itself beyond its military and economic capabilities and, as a result, it collapses.
History bears testimony to this thesis. Witness what happened to prosperous and powerful empires such as Roman empire, Napoleonic empire, Imperial Japan, Pax Brittanica, and Soviet empire. All of them overstretched and suffered militarily and economically.
Now, President Joe Biden is ignoring history and is leading?Pax Americana?down the same treacherous path.
In an address from the Oval Office last week, President Joe Biden declared that America is faced with “an inflection point.” He was referring to the immediate challenges posed by Israeli-Hamas war, the Ukraine war, and the potential conflict with China in the Indo-Specific (i.e. Taiwan).
To face the challenges, Biden has asked Congress for a massive $105 billion in supplemental national-security spending to bolster Ukraine ($ 61 billion), Israel ($ 14 billion), the Indo-Pacific ($7 billion), among other military and economic aid.
“It’s a smart investment,” he said, “that’s going to pay dividends for American security for generations… .”
Biden is not the first president to pursue such “smart investment” in the name of “security for generations.” It has been going on for decades.
The $105 billion supplemental money pales into insignificance compared to $1.80 trillion already allotted for the Department of Defense for the Financial Year 2023. This is more than the Defense budget of the next 10 countries combined.
Massive Defense expenditures are needed on a continuous basis to fund recurring proxy wars of choice. In addition, the United States maintains, according to the journal?Foreign Policy, “more overseas military bases than every other country combined; its?estimated?750 bases spread across 80 or more countries and constitute 75 to 85 percent of the world’s total overseas military bases —?likely?more than any other people, nation, or empire in history.”
The stated goal of such an expansive and expensive military undertaking is to deter enemies and to protect American national security interests. The unstated goal, of course, is to preserve and protract the American empire.
What is clear is that, as Andrew Bacevich of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft observed, “A global military presence tends to underwrite a penchant for ill-advised interventionism abroad.”
Succumbing to America’s imperialistic impulses, Biden has convinced himself that the U.S. has enough economic and military capabilities to face wars in Ukraine, the Middle East and Taiwan — all at the same time.
This is in the midst of a record national debt that has reached 33 trillion dollars (a substantial part of the borrowed money is earmarked for defense purposes), and in the midst of high inflation putting people’s daily life under enormous financial stress.
In his ill-advised imperial overstretch, Biden is not only ignoring history but he is also ignoring the real reality that characterizes current geopolitics.
After World War II, for nearly four decades, the world witnessed a bipolar world order with two nuclear superpowers — the United States and the Soviet Union — constituting the polar ends.
The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 heralded what was euphemistically called a “rule-based” unipolar world in which America traversed the world as a sole, unchallenged hegemon. The Soviet threat to the American empire all but disappeared, and the China threat had not yet materialized.
But, it didn’t a take long for China to pose a competitive threat to the American empire economically, militarily, technologically and diplomatically.
Economically, China is now the second largest economy in the world and may soon become the world’s largest. Besides, maneuvering the supply chains of the world’s biggest companies, China has made itself indispensable for global trade.
Militarily, China ranks 3rd in the world in military might. It is fast becoming the only country that can challenge the US in the Asia Pacific sector and elsewhere.
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Technologically,?China has demonstrated its prowess in space and on earth. Its Zhurong rover has already wheeled across the surface of Mars. By 2030, it aims to put its first astronauts on the Moon. To America’s chagrin, China showed a decisive head start in the 5G-powered Fourth Industrial Revolution and is now working on 5.5G, a step towards 6G.
Diplomatically, China is winning hearts and minds through soft power. Its Belt and Road Initiative aimed at strengthening infrastructure, trade, and investment linking China to nearly 65 countries in Southeast Asia, the Gulf Countries, North Africa, and Europe.
As military and economic competitors, China and America are reviving the specter of a bygone bipolar world.
In yet another turn, emerging economies in the Global South such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa are advancing a new multipolar world.
As John Ikenberry from Princeton University explained in an interview to the journal?Foreign Policy?(September 7, 2023), “In the wake of this crisis in Ukraine, a three-world system has been created, where you have the global west, not just the geographical West, but this larger grouping based on values and interests and traditions; the global east, which is Russia and China; and the global south, which is the swing world, a portion that is not committed in alliances or ideology with either east or west.”
Biden seems to be living in a make-believe world without realizing that “the lure of the old version of Pax Americana is no longer strong enough to entice the rest of the world to respond to U.S. power.”
That’s the verdict of former Prime Minister of Britain?Gordon Brown. He believes that a new multilateralism must be “powered by persuasion and not dictation and founded on the realities of our global economy … .”
The reality of our global economy is that China has blossomed into an economic powerhouse. Equally important is the potential of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, to be expanded to include six more countries: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE).
A couple of days ago,?Bloomberg?reported that in 2001, BRICS accounted for 19% of global gross domestic product but today it’s share is 36% which is expected to rise to 45% by 2040.
According to the report, BRICS is not merely about economics. It is about “challenging the dominance of the US, dethroning the dollar as the world’s primary currency, and building alternative institutions to the Washington-centric International Monetary Fund and World Bank.”
Without recognizing the rise of new competitors with ample resources, Biden seems to be blissfully basking in the glory of a bygone unipolar world.
He is also disregarding recent lessons that American military and economic power alone cannot achieve imperial ambitions.
Just during his time as Vice-President and now as President, America has faced unpalatable outcomes in recent conflicts.
The Iraq war saw the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, but the U.S. is left with a much-strengthened Iran and a Shia-supported Iraq.
After nearly two decades of military operations, America was forced out of Afghanistan in as pathetic a manner as it did in Vietnam.
The on-going Ukraine war is at a stalemate favoring Russia in spite of billions of dollars’ worth of arms and armaments. Experts agree that it is now “a frozen conflict” in which the US will get bogged down.
As a?Newsweek commentator?wrote a year ago: “The manifest failures of the regime-change wars cost America huge sums in blood and treasure, but arguably even more important was the long-term symbolism conveyed: America is not all-powerful and America is incapable of crafting the world in its own image.”
In a similar vein,?The Economist?posed a rhetorical question: “American power: indispensable or ineffective?”
The indispensable nation finds itself ineffective partly because its leaders are unwilling or unable to learn from history.
Perhaps somebody should remind President Biden the wise words of a wise person: “Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it.”
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