Biden Administration Iran 2B adventures already confronted by facts on ground?

After weeks of speculation of where the new Biden Administration in January 2021 will take the US relationship in the Arab Gulf, the first real hurdles for a new JCPOA Iran agreement are emerging. The pro-Biden Europeans, the majority is very happy with the President-elect, and Democrats in Washington, all are looking forward to a realignment of the geopolitical powers in the Persian/Arab Gulf region. Most analysts expect that in addition to Biden’s promise to rejoin the Paris Agreements, Washington also will decide to re-enter the JCPOA discussions with Iran. Oil and gas markets have incorporated in their 2021-2022 assessments already a re-emergence of Iranian oil exports to global markets, while others expect a more active pro-democratic positioning of the US in case of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and even the UAE. Unrest is building up in the respective capitals, as Trump’s legacy could be removed quickly. At least that is the main tenor in assessments at present. When looking to developments on the ground, the situation is not as pro-Biden as some expect. Trump’s legacy is more intertwined with the ongoing political and economic developments in the region than most want to admit.

During the weekend the unexpected happened, if media reports in Israel and the Arab world are to be believed. In a geopolitical regional master stroke Israel’s Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have met for a bilateral discussion in the well-known City of the Future NEOM, the grand piece of MBS’s Saudi Vision 2030. During a visit the well-reported visit of US Secretary of State Pompeo to the Kingdom, Netanyahu and his security chiefs were present. Based on flight-tracking, which has been confirmed by numerous sources, Netanyahu and the head of the Israeli Mossad, Yossi Cohen, flew to NEOM, to take part in a meeting between MBS and Pompeo. No confirmation has been given of the meeting, but an Israeli minister acknowledge the fact to the press. The unexpected move is a further sign of the deepening cooperation between Tel-Aviv and Riyadh, even that both countries are not yet openly reporting on the discussions. The current rapprochement has been expected, especially after that the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Israel have signed diplomatic agreements, followed by a multitude of technical, economic and even defense meetings. Saudi Arabia, as stated by King Salman, the father of MBS, has been still very quiet, keeping to official Saudi statements about the rights of Palestinians. However, a possible deal between Riyadh and Tel-Aviv is imminent, breaking through decades of long-term rivalry and outright conflict. Whatever the Trump Administration’s history recordings will be, it has been able to break through the wall of conflict between GCC countries and Israel. Saudi Arabia would be the jewel in the crown for Trump, but also leading to a possible new strategic reality on the ground.

The possibility of a full-scale Red Sea-GCC alliance is master stroke in line with MBS, MBZ and Netanyahu’s regional thinking. A combined military-economic cooperation, including Egypt-Sudan, GCC leadership and parties in the East Med, would be a major stumble-block for US, EU, Turkey, Qatar and Iran to arrange a new reality after January 2021. By setting up a Saudi-UAE-Israeli entente, almost like the historical Entente in European history in the 16-19th Centuries, would confront the Biden Administration with a very strong faits-a-compli with regards to Iran or the Turkey-Qatar issues. The Democratic Administration will not be able to bulldozer through its possible changes planned in the MENA region without taking into account the strong backing of Israel or the Saudi-UAE groups in Washington’s political circles. The same will count for any European moves in the region. Looking at the last days, the JCPOA will not be single pen stroke by Biden, but a possible political crisis of unforeseen levels.

The Israeli-Saudi discussions also need to be seen in the light of a struggling Saudi-Emirati rentier-state economic environment. Israeli technology and defense knowledge could become a main part of the bargaining power for official relations with Riyadh in the coming weeks. A more anti-MBS stand by Biden and his cohorts can only be countered by a deepening Tel-Aviv-Riyadh-Abu Dhabi axis. Mohammed bin Salman’s dream of setting up NEOM, one cornerstone of his own future, is more easily to be reached if Israeli technology, start-ups and investments are available. Don’t forget, NEOM is almost bordering Israel, so distance is no issue at all.

Geopolitics will also become involved in the oil markets if all gets green light. A stronger and bolder Saudi Arabia, supported by the UAE, is able to block OPEC Iran issues much easier. Israel’s deep relations with Vladimir Putin, somehow overlooked by all, is another asset of influence for MBS and MBZ. OPEC+ could be revived by Israeli peace treaties, as it will be a large and increasingly strong front against Iran. All Arab parties are also willing to go the whole road in a move to block Turkish expansion and power projections in their own backyard. Security and energy again are at play, but this by people in power, looking for a future that is at risk due to Washington’s instability the coming months or even years.

The developments already have stirred anxiety in Ankara and Iran, as its proxies are trying to push for action soon. The latest Yemeni Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco assets in Jeddah are just a sign for what could be in the offing. Iran is speeding up all its capabilities, while facts on the ground show a re-shaping of IRGC forces in the Persian Gulf region. Turkey’s strategy to put oil on the fire in the East Med continues, while slowly the Libyan playground is getting attention again. The coming months the prelude for possible changes are put in motion. Stability in the region is not expected, oil and gas markets should keep the latter in mind. Washington’s energy power also is diminishing partly, while its pulling powers in the Arab world are at historically low levels.

What stays remarkable is that Israeli security officials and Prime Minister Netanyahu have taken a plane to NEOM. If this meeting would have needed to be strictly confidential, taking a Netanyahu designated plane would have been out of the question. Taking the road to NEOM or a boat would have been much more easier. Remember Jordan’s King Hussein going to the beach in Tel Aviv on his own Harley Davidson for years. Tracking is sometimes a diplomatic move to increase pressure! 

Written and analysed by www.verocy.com