Beyond Zero: Navigating Probabilities in Startup Success
Dilara Asadova, MBA
Fortune 100 Financial Analyst | Controller | Actuary | Risk Manager | Insurance, VC & Healthcare Sectors | Budgeting | Forecasting | Reporting | Public Speaker | Former LinkedIn Top Voice
What are the chances of meeting a dinosaur on the streets of San Francisco today? Sounds absurd, right? Some joke that the probability is 50%—you either do or you don't. But humor aside, it seems close to zero. Or is it?
Consider this: birds evolved from small dinosaurs, the same group as T. rex. The oldest bird fossils date back 150 million years. Now, the chance of meeting a bird, a living dinosaur, is almost 100%. A single factor changed, and probability soared from 0 to 100%.
Today, we will talk about non-obvious factors for startup success.
You all know that the keys for a startup to be successful are:
·????? Customer
·????? Product
·????? Team
While working hard in your day-to-day routine, you can miss some factors that would change the game. I want to encourage you to take a step back and look at your piece of art from a different perspective.
1.???? Think as an investor. Go to the bay and assume that one of the yachts there is yours. Visit a luxury hotel lobby, order coffee, and assume that you live in this hotel. Tell yourself, 'I'm an investor. I have this amount of money.' Why should I invest in this guy?
Investors choose people and profit. Your idea could be awesome, but unless you are convincing and pleasant and there is an obvious path for profit, you are not interesting to investors.
2.???? Let yourself be lazy; rest allows the brain to be in default mode, a state where thinking is more flexible and novel.
Here are some features that being lazy sometimes can bring to your routine:
4.???? Classical music boosts memory and aids relaxation. Listen to classical music in your headphones and go to concerts. To generate new ideas.
In 1957, over 10,000 high school graduates from Wisconsin were asked to participate in a survey regarding their school experiences, family income, and future life aspirations. Subsequently, their responses were compared with their involvement in music activities, as documented in yearbook entries.
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This cohort was surveyed again in the years 1964, 1975, 1993, 2004, and 2011, and their cumulative responses over the years unveiled that 38 percent of them engaged in music during high school, while 21 percent continued to do so in adulthood.
5.???? Learn body language to find out what is the real reaction of random people to your product.
6.???? Positive number:
Risk management is a crucial factor for a company, and as a former risk manager, I encourage you to have a pessimist in your team. However, the entire corporate culture should be positive. Up to 90% of startups fail, but this number is related to all startups, regardless of the period of existence. Some of them may simply be rebranded into something new. The probability of failure is the probability of success.
7.???? Three T rule
Team:
The quality and expertise of the team members are critical for a startup's success. A strong, diverse, and skilled team can navigate challenges effectively and bring various perspectives to problem-solving.
Time:
The timing of entering the market can significantly impact a startup's success. Being aware of market trends, understanding when to launch, and adapting to the right timing for product releases are crucial aspects.
Target (Market):
Identifying and targeting the right market is essential. Understanding the needs of the target audience and tailoring the product or service to meet those needs is key for market penetration and success.
Market Research – Explore markets beyond the obvious in yours. Think Frisbees are pie containers.
As the world shakes from artificial intelligence, let your human intelligence bloom; it's your advantage!
Dilara Asadova, MBA, What's the most unexpected non-obvious factor for startup success you've come across in your research?