Beyond the smart phone: why the next big tech form factor remains elusive

As an industry watcher who’s seen the unstoppable rise of mobile, perhaps soon overshadowed by the lightning-fast emergence of GenAI, it’s worth asking: why haven’t we moved beyond the mobile form factor? The numbers are staggering. There is likely no country on the planet where the ubiquitous smartphone isn’t present. In fact, many regions leapfrogged straight to mobile, bypassing the "fixed-line" era entirely.

Mobile succeeded because it tapped into a fundamental human instinct: communication. From voice calls to video, and now emojis that rival the complexity of ancient hieroglyphics, the mobile phone made global connection frictionless. Untethered from walls, people could reach anyone, anywhere. Add to that a virtuous cycle of improving cost economics—cheaper handsets, lower data costs—and mobile became accessible to nearly everyone.

The iPhone moment was the inflection point. It wasn’t just a phone anymore; it became a pocket-sized computer, a camera, a music player, a map, and a marketplace. The mobile phone wasn’t just a device; it became an integral part of our lives.

The XR Experiment

But with the success of mobile came a natural question: what’s next? The first notable response was over a decade ago—Google Glass, born out of the hallowed Google X labs. It was bold but ultimately failed to become the next iconic device. It wasn’t fashionable and had limited functionality. Microsoft’s HoloLens and Meta’s Oculus followed, each targeting niche markets—enterprise and defense for the former, and a slice of VR enthusiasts for the latter. Meta, in particular, aimed for something grander—a Metaverse, rebranding the company around the idea—but the world has yet to follow.

These experiments were moonshots, driven by companies with deep pockets from ad revenue and low-interest cash. They could afford to miss. Then came the upstarts, none more high-profile than Magic Leap. Aiming to create hardware, software, and an ecosystem simultaneously, it garnered massive attention but ultimately floundered. Launching a $3,499 product with limited functionality and requiring a battery pack didn’t help. It soon joined Google Glass in the hall of failed ambitions. One key learning - trying to do everything all at once..... is not child's play

But the dream is far from dead. Just last week, Evan Spiegel announced that Snap is doubling down on this form factor, even if mass adoption is still years away.

Wearables: A Complement, Not a Replacement

Meanwhile, wearables have caught on—though if we’re honest, it’s Apple that won. Fitbit was the pioneer, and at one point, it seemed wearables could be the future. Then Apple entered the market, and when Google acquired Fitbit, it was unclear what they even wanted from the deal. Fitbit slowly withered under Google’s neglect, and Apple captured the lion’s share of the market.

The Apple Watch didn’t start as a runaway success either, until Apple found its niche: fitness tracking. It complemented the phone; it didn’t replace it. Similarly, AirPods have become common, but again, they serve as an accessory rather than a standalone device.

Emerging Form Factors: Case in point - Humane’s AI Pin

And then there are those who aim for something truly different—like Humane’s Ai Pin. Unlike the phone, glasses, or headphones, the Ai Pin occupies a completely new space. It’s worn like a brooch, a placement that has no real precedent in modern tech (unless you consider body-cams). It’s audacious, conceived by ex-Apple employees, but it demands a complete shift in how we think about devices. Users have to learn where to wear it, how to use it, and what to use it for.

Even Apple’s iPhone didn’t ask this much of consumers. Apple started with the iPod, a better music player, and then iterated on the phone. Humane’s approach, in contrast, feels more akin to Magic Leap—trying to do everything at once. It’s an ambitious leap, but pushing boundaries often requires bold steps and missteps along the way.

And just as we’re thinking about Humane, Jony Ive—arguably the most influential industrial designer of the past two decades—has teamed up with Sam Altman and OpenAI to work on a new device. The star power is undeniable.

The Future: Single-Use Before Ubiquity

Will all this hype, capital, and creative force lead to a device that eventually surpasses the smartphone? It’s not obvious. The mobile phone has become so entrenched because it evolved from existing technology—fixed-line phones and music players—into something far more useful.

I suspect the next big thing will start with single or limited-use cases before it becomes indispensable. AirPods began as headphones and are now evolving into hearing aids. Perhaps we’ll see the same trajectory with wearables like rings or wristbands, forms humans have used for centuries. But the key challenge is the lack of a visual element. If glasses or something like the Ai Pin succeed, we might finally see a shift in how we interact with devices.

After all, we are a species driven by communication—not just with each other, but increasingly with our machines.