Beyond Safety Nets: Leveraging Social Protection for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

As climate change accelerates, Bosnia and Herzegovina grapples with the increasing frequency of severe weather events. Floods, wildfires, and heatwaves are no longer anomalies but regular threats that disrupt communities, undermine livelihoods, and amplify existing social vulnerabilities. In this context, the urgency to fortify protections for the country’s most vulnerable citizens—especially children—has never been more pressing. Shock-responsive social protection emerges as a critical solution to mitigate climate and crisis-induced poverty and exclusion.

The Social Impact of Climate Change

Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating social inequalities and disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable populations, particularly children. As the global evidence confirms, children are often the first to suffer the consequences of climate-related shocks, facing disruptions in education, health and nutrition, and overall socioeconomic standards and well-being. Nearly one-third of children in BiH live in poverty, and the impacts of climate hazards threaten to deepen this crisis, pushing families further into hardship. When hazardous events occur, effective social protection becomes vital in determining whether children can quickly return to normalcy or if their futures will be irrevocably altered.

How Social Protection Can Shield Against Climate Risks

Traditionally, social protection systems have focused on routine vulnerabilities such as poverty and unemployment. However, the growing incidence of climate-related hazards necessitates a shift toward more dynamic systems. SRSP is designed to expand and adapt rapidly in preparation and response to shocks, providing immediate support to affected populations. Unfortunately, many country systems are either too weak to respond or lack the flexibility to rapidly expand their reach or temporarily increase transfer sizes while families recover.

In BiH, where significant socio-economic disparities persist, the stakes are particularly high. A substantial portion of the population relies on agriculture, a sector acutely vulnerable to climate risks. The UNICEF Children’s Climate Risk Index indicates that children in BiH are vulnerable to these health impacts, particularly in regions where air quality may deteriorate due to rising temperatures and pollution.

By integrating SRSP into the country’s climate adaptation strategies, BiH can create a safety net that not only supports recovery but also minimizes the risk of long-term harm to its population, especially children.

BiH’s Nationally Determined Contribution emphasizes the need for transitioning to a low-carbon economy while maintaining social cohesion. SRSP plays an important role in this transition by ensuring that vulnerable households are not left behind, providing immediate relief through cash transfers, and maintaining essential services pre, during and after climate-related shocks. This approach directly aligns with BiH's goals of sustainable development and social cohesion during its transition to a low emission economy.

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Shock-Responsive Social Protection and Climate Change Adaptation

The urgency of establishing SRSP systems is amplified by the realities of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has underscored the importance of social protection as a crucial mechanism for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Effective social protection systems can significantly reduce vulnerability and bolster resilience, enabling communities to navigate the uncertainties wrought by climate change.

BiH’s Climate Adaptation and Low Emission Development Strategy (2020-2030) highlights the need for integrated approaches to build climate resilience across sectors, including social protection. Additionally, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) for Bosnia and Herzegovina, a significant challenge highlighted is the necessity of leveraging the transition to a low-carbon economy to achieve sustainable economic development and social cohesion. This process must consider the existing economic structure and the time required for such a transition.

In this context, SRSP becomes an essential mechanism, linking climate resilience to poverty alleviation and social cohesion goals by providing timely financial support and services when disasters strike

Integrating Shock-Responsive Social Protection (SRSP) into climate adaptation strategies can address these challenges effectively. While the NDC may not explicitly mention social protection systems, it underscores the importance of sustainable strategies that can enhance social cohesion and resilience.

Incorporating SRSP as part of BiH’s approach to climate adaptation and resilience, as outlined in NAP and NDC could ensure that climate mitigation efforts support both social and economic cohesion. This would align BiH with global climate goals while protecting its most vulnerable populations, particularly children, from the harshest impacts of climate change.

Roadmaps for Resilience

Both Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska—have acknowledged the necessity of SRSP. Two launched roadmaps outline a strategic vision for developing these systems from 2023 to 2027.

The Roadmap for the Development of a Shock-Responsive Social Protection System in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina aims to integrate SRSP into the existing social protection framework. It outlines steps such as establishing financing mechanisms, defining crisis-response protocols, and equipping social welfare institutions to act swiftly during and after crises.

Similarly, the Roadmap for the Development of a Shock-Responsive Social Protection System in the for Republika Srpska proposes actionable steps to ensure that the social protection system effectively supports vulnerable groups during times of climate upheavals. Both documents emphasize sustainable financing, inter-agency collaboration, and vulnerability and climate data-driven targeting to deliver assistance effectively.

These roadmaps reflect a growing acknowledgment of the complex interplay between social vulnerabilities and climate risks.

Financing Resilience

A pivotal aspect of the Roadmaps is their focus on pre-arranged financing. This straightforward yet powerful concept allows BiH to allocate dedicated funds for emergency social transfers, circumventing the typical delays associated with disaster responses. Authorities will have immediate access to these pre-allocated resources, enabling them to provide timely relief.

Investments in social protection systems, particularly those that are adaptive and flexible, allow BiH to respond more effectively to climate hazards. Pre-arranged financing, such as emergency funds earmarked for social transfers, can be swiftly mobilized, reducing delays in reaching affected populations. This proactive approach helps maintain social stability and prevents children and other vulnerable groups from falling into poverty due to climate-related disasters.

Moreover, the SRSP financing extends beyond disaster recovery; it embodies preparedness. Investments in adaptive social protection—such as climate-proofing infrastructure, integrating early warning systems, and providing training—can mitigate vulnerabilities before crises strike.

For example, by providing timely SRSP interventions, BiH can maintain economic activity in climate-affected sectors, ensuring families can recover quickly and avoid long-term economic decline. This would stabilize income for households that rely on agriculture and related sectors.

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Implications for BiH

Developing SRSP systems signifies more than mere technical and financial adjustments to the social welfare system; it represents a paradigm shift in BiH’s approach to disaster risk management, climate change adaptation and social welfare. By linking social protection with climate action and disaster risk reduction, the country can break the cycle of vulnerability and empower communities, particularly children, to build lasting resilience.

For BiH’s citizens, especially those living in poverty or exposed to climate hazards, SRSP offers a semblance of protection. It ensures that when the next flood, wildfire, or heatwave strikes, the most vulnerable—especially children—will not be left to fend for themselves. Instead, they will have access to timely support, linked resilience-building efforts. Also, even more importantly, upfront investment in SRSP not only helps BiH prepare for climate-induced risks but also offers significant financial savings over time, as well as social protection for its most vulnerable citizens—especially children. The cost-benefit equation strongly favors SRSP as a critical tool for resilience and economic stability.

For example, SRSP can support local economies by ensuring that families continue to spend money on goods and services, thereby stabilizing local markets during climate shocks. Research indicates that cash transfers can lead to a 10-20% increase in local economic activity, which is crucial for recovery after disasters. Furthermore, global studies show that cash assistance can lead to a 15% increase in school attendance during recovery phases. By preventing dropouts, the long-term resilience of communities improves, as education is a critical factor in breaking the cycle of poverty.

The Way Forward

Climate change is no longer a distant threat; its effects are already being felt across regions and in BiH. Transitioning toward shock-responsive social protection is crucial to ensuring that the country’s most vulnerable populations, especially children, are not merely shielded during crises but are empowered to thrive in climate prepared ecosystems.

Investing in Shock-Responsive Social Protection offers significant economic and social returns, particularly when aimed at protecting children from the worst impacts of climate change and crises. According to global studies, every dollar invested in on resilience-building activities, including through social protection systems, can save multiple dollars in post-crisis recovery costs. The global evidence suggests that early interventions and investments in resilience including SRSP can save up to $4 for every $1 spent, through reducing the long-term economic costs associated with prolonged poverty and vulnerability. By investing in SRSP, BiH is committing to a safer, more resilient future for all its citizens.

UNICEF recognizes that building effective SRSP systems requires collaboration with governments and partners worldwide. As BiH forges ahead, the backing of local governments and international partners, including UNICEF, will be pivotal in actualizing these roadmaps.

By ensuring that SRSP is prioritized, BiH can address climate-induced poverty and build a stronger, more inclusive system that shields its population—particularly children—from the rising effects of climate change.

Pamela Dale Diana King Maria Osbeck Annmarie Swai Tigran Tovmasyan

?UNICEF Bosnia and Herzegovina

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