Beyond the Next Billion #11
Good day to all our readers! We are back after a two-week break and some respite from the scorching Indian summer. While the country continues to see soaring temperatures and digs in for the delayed monsoons, there was certainly a lot of news flow to catch up on. This week, we continue with our hybrid format, combining some long-form content with a roundup of key announcements within our core coverage areas.
The Apple Vision Pro
The tech and telecom sectors certainly keep churning our new announcements at a rapid clip. The biggest of these stories was, yes, you guessed it, the launch of the Apple VisionPro device. The sheer volume of coverage that Apple manages to generate around their product launches continues to impress and bely expectations. At this year’s edition of the WWDC event, Apple did launch a number of products. There were new Macs and a bunch of software related announcements but these didn't get much coverage for a reason.
The highlight of the event was the much-anticipated launch of the Vision Pro “spatial computing” device. There are a number of well-written and insightful analyses already published on this launch, here, here, here and here. The device itself, not surprisingly, comes with Apple’s signature industrial design and loads of components and new technology under the hood. 12 cameras, 6 microphones and 5 sensors are packed into the Vision Pro and while it seems much at first glance, it is indicative of the level of components needed to create a truly immersive experience. Apple has also innovated at the silicon level, including the M2 processor to handle heavy workloads but also introducing a new R1 chip that is dedicated to the numerous signals from the sensors, cameras and microphones embedded in the device. The R1 as a standalone unit will help reduce latency (reportedly to below 12 milliseconds), a crucial metric that will differentiate the user experience.?
For our part, we were struck by the highlight on the term spatial computing. No mention of the metaverse, or should we call it the M-word? It is clear that Apple is not positioning this as a mere virtual reality head-mounted display (HMD), or even a combination AR/VR device, which in many ways it is. Rather, the focus on spatial computing is an attempt to define a new category altogether, both in terms of a new medium for computing but also in device/form factor terms. Indeed, spatial computing suggests a clean break from the rigid, 2D oriented form factors that we have become so accustomed to. Visions of truly immersive computing are hardly new and have been in pop culture references for some time. I recall a cheesy Hollywood movie about a bunch of teenagers creating a computer with a holographic OS, though for the life of me, I can’t remember the title or the actors involved in what was clearly not a memorable movie. Immersive experiences are also captured in a number of sci-fi movies, a more recent one being Blade Runner 2049.
The only way the Vision Pro and indeed the whole category works if users (whether consumer or enterprise) are convinced that they are better served with an expanded field of vision and the theoretical removal of distractions by eliminating stray light and ambient sound. However, this comes with the hard tradeoff. An immersive experience can also be viewed as an exercise in isolation in the post-Covid world. Also, wearing a heavy head mounted display (HMD) for several hours can become tiresome for many users.
Assuming that users can get over the tradeoffs and like the device and the quality of the immersive experience, this also means that new user behaviour will need to become commonplace through the new interface, almost like learning a new language. The Vision Pro keynote address stressed that the VisionOS (an entirely new OS created by Apple) would track users’ eyeballs as they moves across the field of vision, highlighting the app they rest their gaze on and with a pinch of two fingers, the app or page would open. This is essentially learned behaviour but with Apple’s track record, this should not be difficult for most people. ??
There are a number of open questions about this device. The biggest question and the one that will get the most attention is the eyebrow-raising starting price of $3,499. It is important to note that this is the starting price so there will be add-ons, presumably for the 2-hour battery pack and potentially other accessories. While most people assume that at this price, the Vision Pro will be a dud, Jay Goldberg notes correctly in his recent piece that even at 0.01% attach rates for the Vision Pro relative to total iPhones sold, this would translate to a mere 285,000 devices but still make for a $1 billion business!
In Asia, we believe there will be more than enough “early adopters” who will not be able to resist the lure of the Vision Pro. But beyond the price, will there be enough content and will it be compelling? It is interesting to note that the Vision Pro will not be available for at least six months in the US, which means it will take at least a year before it is available in Asia and other regions. Disney’s CEO Bob Iger was part of the keynote, teasing an early arrival of Disney content on the Vision Pro platform. However, it’s clear that it will take time for developers to start churning out content and apps.
But from our perspective sitting here in developing Asia, there are bigger questions to ponder about the future of computing. In a region where computing is synonymous with the smartphone, the emergence of the Vision Pro as a new category will create a few ripples but very few waves. The affordability of the device relative to Meta’s Quest and other devices will certainly constrain adoption. However, if the device and its application ecosystem can ramp up suitably within the next five years, there will be an opportunity for users to consider investing in what will be an emerging medium for computing.
INDIA and SOUTH ASIA
BSNL officially gets a new lease on life
It’s official! India’s state-owned telecom operator, Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL), has received funding from the Government of India (GOI) to the tune of close to $11 billion. This has been rumoured for some time now, and we’ve covered this in previous editions. That said, the quantum of the revival package approved by the GOI’s Cabinet is striking. The GOI has gone out of its way to tout the utilization of a “Made in India” stack with the network equipment contracts given out to TCS. However, the projected outlay of $11 billion is unlikely to only cover CAPEX on equipment and software platforms. Rather, a chunk of is likely to be for acquiring spectrum for a nationwide 4G network and possibly some 5G spectrum in selected areas. BSNL has been languishing for nearly a decade with its 2G network and has seen virtually no investments in network quality. There is clearly a lot of work to do. ?Link
There are many who will question the sense of reviving a state-owned telecom operator, itself an anachronism in 2023. The question of whether there should be publicly owned telecom networks is worthy of debate in itself, but the GOI will never be able to take the politically sensitive decision of shutting down BSNL. The socialist goals of the Indian state are still deeply embedded in its institutions and political economy, and this has been used as justification once again to extend BSNL’s shelf life. Indeed, extension of 4G coverage to rural, remote and border areas has been trotted out in a familiar line of tropes. Beyond this, even a privately held company with the quantum of debt that BSNL has will not find it an easy sell. Lastly, India’s mobile subscribers are inherently multi-SIM, so BSNL’s subscriber base, at barely 10% of the total, is not exactly a high value user base. Link
Department of Telecom declines to allocate spectrum directly to enterprises
A year ago, industry stakeholders cheered when the Telecoms Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) issued new guidelines that would allow spectrum to be allocated directly to enterprises. The other two options offered to enterprises were to recruit telcos to help them launch their private networks, or to “lease” spectrum resources from a given telco and work with third parties (SIs) or do it themselves. The move to offer spectrum directly was controversial and hotly contested by the incumbent telecom service providers, who had been paying exorbitant rates for spectrum.
After initial industry surveys and some expressions of interest from enterprises led to expectations that the process and final guidelines would be announced soon, a concerted lobbying campaign by the incumbent telcos has given the Department of Telecom (DoT) pause. The DoT has since asked for additional inputs from the Law Ministry on the efficacy of not auctioning spectrum. For those not in the know, India’s standing policy is to auction all spectrum and not go through an administrative process of allocation. This policy stems from the so-called 2G scam from nearly a decade ago, when the prevailing GOI was accused of issuing 2G spectrum to parties that had no prior experience of building networks at throwaway prices. The resulting scandal gridlocked Parliament and ultimately, the Supreme Court of India cancelled all of the 2G licenses in question and went a step further by calling for auctions as the preferred and most transparent method of allocation.
As a result of this “2G scam” overhang, the Law Ministry has advised against administrative allocation of spectrum for enterprises, as it could potentially violate the Supreme Court ruling. The bottom line is that this door now appears to be closed for enterprises hopeful of launching private 5g networks. The current policy on spectrum is also going to be a thorny issue for prospective satellite operators in India but that is a subject of a separate discussion. Enterprises are loath to bidding for spectrum at market rates, as they do not believe that it will justify a business case. For now, enterprises will have two options – lease spectrum through a telco and build the network or give the entire contract to a telco to offer a managed service. There is already some evidence that spectrum “leasing” is happening in India and we expect to see a lot more on this front soon as enterprises pivot quickly to deal with the new guidelines. Link
A recent announcement by Apollo Hospitals launching a 5G connected ambulance is a small indicator of prospective demand and use cases.
领英推荐
Mandala Insights will be updating our Private 5G forecasts over the next few months, and we will share more details soon. For those interested in the 2022 forecast report titled “Private Networks in India: Market Landscape and Forecast”, please contact us directly.
AUSTRALIA
Telstra, Australia’s market leading telecom services provider, has recently announced the launch of its new Industrial Automation product suite. “Telstra’s Industrial Automation capability offers holistic solutions, spanning private networks, internet of things (IoT), IT/OT convergence, cybersecurity, analytics and AI, cloud and edge, and professional and managed services.” The offering brings together a number of service and network propositions through its Telstra Purple division. Digital transformation is becoming a key theme for Australian enterprises and Telstra Purple has been able to get traction in areas like managed services for enterprises, professional services, cloud applications and equipment sales. Telstra Purple’s acquisitions of Alliance Automation, a provider of industrial automation solutions and services, as well as Aqura Technologies, a provider of industrial wireless IoT solutions, have further strengthened its capabilities in the industrial IoT space. Telstra Purple also has data and AI capabilities that are the outcome of a joint venture with Quantium, a leader in data analytics and AI.
A key example of how digital transformation is driving new business for Telstra is with regards to companies that are considering deploying private 5G and IOT. This brings together professional services opportunities for Purple as well as NaaS opportunities. Telstra Purple is being positioned as a key differentiator for Telstra and a testament to their digital ambitions. Network as a Service (NaaS) continues to be a key growth segment for Telstra, as industry verticals look beyond baseline private 5G and seek solutions that drive specific use cases and business outcomes. The Industrial Automation suite will target network and solution opportunities for key industrial segments including mining, construction, and other heavy industries.?
The Australian Rail Track Corporation (ARTC) has deployed new mobile tower infrastructure in North Star and Gurley in the northwestern part of New South Wales. These deployments are part of the Inland Rail, a fast-freight corridor project being rolled out by the ARTC across Australia. The interesting part of this deployment is that the mobile tower infrastructure has been activated by Telstra and will be maintained by the service provider going forward. The tower infrastructure will be used for signalling and communications for the railways but is also equipped with 5G antennas which can be used for offering services to local residents in the area. Backhaul links have also been upgraded to fiber to enable high speed connectivity.
NEW ZEALAND
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SOUTH-EAST ASIA
KOREA
As always, feedback is welcome. Let us know your thoughts, comments and things that can be improved. DM on LinkedIn as needed.?
International Long-Haul B777 Captain.
1 年Interesting insights Shiv!