Beyond the Hype: The CES 2023 Auto and Mobility Report

The Auto-Mobility presence feels like it is dominating #CES now - encompassing all of the new West Hall ("the largest column-free space in North America"), some of the North Hall, and permeating throughout the other halls as well. Or, to put it another way: now that the OEMs are clamouring over themselves to be known as "tech companies" (and no longer "mobility providers"), the CES has become their most important show (as projected ).

Here are the key themes (along with my plain-language commentary):

1. Passenger Experience: Finally, a focus on who really matters

With a continued rise in #ridesharing and #autonomous mobility, the passenger experience is coming into focus. Bosch Mobility shared a suite of solutions (dubbed "RideCare ") for shared vehicle fleets that combines hardware, software, and connectivity for safety and comfort. In its clever "Moox " concept vehicle, Toyota Boshoku America demonstrated variable passenger cabins, while Ivee aims to provide premium content and wellness to riders (it has already gathered research from over 200,000 riders - including via its partner Blacklane ). ZF 集团 aims to provide warmth to passengers via the "HeatBelt " (one OEM told me, "we've been trying to do this for years"), and Continental provides heat via surfaces - in both cases, saving energy over traditional interior heating.

There will eventually be more passengers than drivers, and there are over 20 billion #ridehailing journeys per year, so it stands to reason that vehicles should be developed with those in the back seat in mind. Looking further ahead, the business models of some L4 autonomous operators are built on in-car-entertainment and shopping. holoride is bringing gaming and AR / VR experiences into vehicles, and Sony's car (also see below) features in-car entertainment (via Unreal Engine ). But the real "fun" is yet to begin: in-car commerce solutions like Mavi will be worth watching. Amazon, we're just waiting on you now...

2. Autonomous I: Suppliers show off shuttles, but production lags

ZF 集团 and HOLON 's respective #autonomous shuttles stole the show from an autonomous point-of-view. Seating up to 22, these are considerably larger, heavier, and likely more comfortable than the pioneers among autonomous shuttles (from EasyMile, Aurrigo, and Navya). These people-movers will integrate into public transportation systems neatly.

Daimler Buses GmbH , Volvo Buses , and MAN Truck & Bus SE (or "NewMAN ") have teased in the past, but not yet delivered in this segment, leaving this field up to more ambitious first-tier suppliers, who have impressively stepped up to the plate.

Nevertheless, neither Holon nor ZF will have local production until the middle of this decade, so the potential of "10s of thousands" of vehicles seen by Joe Moye and his exceptional sales team will have to wait. At least one potential shuttle customer told me, "I've got a check burning a hole in my pocket, I just don't know who to write it out to. Show me a vehicle produced in the US, and I'll buy."

3. Autonomous II: After the great reset, partnerships rule

It's a new dawn, after a 2022 of consolidation within the trough of disillusionment . After cleansing itself of the notion that any one company or group can "do it all", our autonomous community has (re-)discovered partnerships and specialization. Both ZF (+Oxbotica) and Holon (+Mobileye) announced partnerships with Beep, Inc. to operate their shuttles, just as partnerships dominated the press conferences of Foxconn, Continental and others.

I also recorded a podcast with the CEOs of Oxa and Applied EV - Software Defined Machines? about their global partnership - we'll share it soon, via Partners for Automated Vehicle Education (PAVE) .

Mobileye projects $3.5bn in autonomous #mobilityasaservice revenue through 2028, along with its partners Benteler / Beep, 舍弗勒 , and an undisclosed "leading European" (likely, north German) OEM. The company appears to be "hallucinating" in the best of possible ways (its solution combines cameras, radar, and lidar for vehicle control into a "hallucination", as shared at the press-conference).

高通 's Snapdragon and BlackBerry QNX 's IVY platform, as well as 英伟达 feature prominently in many of the solutions presented, including VW's CARIAD and 富士康 . At least Qualcomm and NVidia have market-caps larger than most OEMs, so we know who is really in charge now. The gorilla (not yet fully) in the room is 苹果 .

What else to watch out for? Deeper value-chain innovations across autonomous, such as in mapping, radar-optimization, and lidar.

4. Automotive: Suppliers innovate, OEMs razzle-dazzle

大众 boldly went software-first at CES: The CARIAD stand showed off the VW Group - and not the other way around. It's a good example of yet another theme at CES: The #softwaredefinedvehicle . More on that in another post.

宝马 hired The Terminator to flex Oliver Zipse's muscles (watch here from 6'50 ), and showed off a color changing concept car. Behind the E-ink and hype, however, was a first glimpse at the next, fully electric BMW (3-series). Investors and fans alike should feel relief, as the kidney-grille finally returns to sane proportions, and the Hofmeister Knick (or Kink) is beautifully interpreted.

In the wake of the Sono Motors #savesion flop (you heard it here), a better-organized, better-financed, better-looking solar-charged car has entered production. Lightyear showed off its form-follows-function "0" (with a record-low, and frankly astounding Cd of 0.175), and teased its 2025 model, the "2". I saw a glimpse - and look forward to it.

Afeela change coming on. Apparently without any market research, 索尼 and Honda Mobility Solutions Co., Ltd. revealed the name of their progeny: Afeela (which sounds more like it should be at home in the bedroom, than the garage). I predicted a Sony car in 2015 , it was teased in 2020 , but yet apparently it won't be available until 2026. What is taking so long? Apparently some partnerships take longer...

Other notable mentions among the OEMs: impressive VINFAST , and slow-follower Stellantis , with its RAM 1500 EV concept for 2024 (bring it to market already. Ford and GM are way ahead of you).

5. Micromobility: A private affair

E-bikes and e-scooters of all shapes and sizes were seen - but not shared - across the CES stages. Bosch (who already supplies motors to dozens of bike brands, including Trek, Cube, Cannondale and more) showed off ABS for ebikes. Brands from Fiat to Yulu felt the need to show off their #multimodal mobility chops - including the absurd: a mundane and overpriced $1,600 Bugatti e-scooter ("we are actually selling this at cost", as I was assured). Real innovation came from the likes of the Icoma Tatamel , and Heybike - each with highly compact, neatly folding e-bikes.

In a communications own-goal, 大陆集团 inexplicably showed off a high-vis jacket for cyclists, suggesting its autonomous sensors would be better able to see them - for "only" €235 . A better solution, if we want greater communication between bikes and vehicles, was (again) shown off at Qualcomm's stand: using C-V2X technology and based on Snapdragon , the Spoke Mobility Solution aims to protect vulnerable road-users by facilitating communication between two-wheeled and four-wheeled vehicles.

What was clearly missing, was any talk of shared #micromobility . In fact, in spite of the people movers (and a notable presence of Free2move ), there was simply - and still - not enough #sharedmobility at CES. Perhaps this says more about the state (and desirability) of sharing in the US, than it does about the industry?

6. Augmented Reality: Why go anywhere?

Canon USA gave car dealerships something to think about . Its MREAL engine allows for a full product experience demo (just add the faux leather seat) - on stage and without the hassle of a suburban dealership. We'll likely see this turn up in urban showrooms.

Finally: Thank you to Maren Higbee and the team at Mighty Media Studios for showing me around the impressive streaming broadcast booth at CES, to Consumer Technology Association for once again bringing the world together (and upping all of our step-counts ), and to the great old (and new) friends across the #mobility world seen at the show.

Lukas is Managing Director of Neckermann Strategic Advisors , a boutique consultancy founded in 2013 with a unique focus on #mobility and #smartcities . He is an advisor to multiple companies across mobility, a lecturer at 美国纽约大学 and the IMO-HSG | Institut für Mobilit?t , and the (co-)author of several books and research studies, including the #mobilityrevolution .