Beyond Dominance: The Rise of Collaboration in the Global Power Struggle

Op-Ed By Foster Awintiti Akugri , 2/20/25

"Most agreements are made with a gun to the head... and for over a century, the West has held the gun."

This provocative line from The Equalizer, TV Show, resonates deeply with the central thesis of Ian Morris’ Why The West Rules, For Now. Both the show and the book serve as mirrors to history and power dynamics, emphasizing the uncomfortable reality that dominance in geopolitics has often been underpinned by coercion rather than consensus. As I reflect on these insights, I find myself considering the contemporary implications of shifting global power dynamics.

Is the "gun" of dominance changing hands? If so, what does this mean for the future of our interconnected world?

For over a century, Western powers, primarily the United States and Europe, have shaped the global order. Their dominance has been fuelled by industrialization, military might, and economic leverage. Institutions like the United Nations , the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund were designed to perpetuate this order, often under the guise of multilateralism but with Western interests at their core.

From colonial exploitation to Cold War geopolitics, agreements, be they economic partnerships, military alliances, or trade deals, have often been made under duress. The proverbial "gun to the head" represents not just military threats but economic sanctions, debt traps, and diplomatic isolation.

A poignant example of this dynamic is France’s enduring influence in Francophone Africa. Decades after formal decolonization, France has maintained a neo-colonial presence in the Sahel and other Francophone regions through mechanisms like the CFA franc currency system, military interventions, and economic dependencies. For years, these nations have operated under agreements that many argue perpetuate a form of modern-day subjugation.

However, the Sahel region and broader Francophone Africa are increasingly pushing back. Recent changes in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have exposed a growing resentment toward French influence. Sahel states, often plagued by poverty and insecurity, are rejecting France’s "paternalistic" interventions, opting instead to explore new alliances with potential partners like Russia and China. This response signals a broader rejection of neo-colonial systems and a demand for genuine sovereignty.

This shift is not just political but deeply symbolic, representing a broader trend of formerly colonized nations asserting their independence and challenging the status quo. The fallout has seen United States and French military bases shuttered, economic agreements with the former power renegotiated, and her geopolitical influence waning in regions it once dominated.

Recent events in Gaza have provided another lens through which to view the shifting dynamics of power and influence. The recently announced ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, brokered with international mediation, sheds light on the fragile balance of power in one of the world’s most contested regions. While this ceasefire offers a temporary reprieve, it also highlights the broader struggle for influence in the Middle East, where Western powers like the United States have traditionally played a dominant role as mediators and supporters of Israel.

The shifting allegiances in the region, with countries like China and Russia increasingly asserting their diplomatic presence, signal a multipolar approach to conflict resolution. This evolving dynamic raises questions about the future role of the West in shaping peace agreements and the extent to which emerging powers will redefine the rules of engagement. The ceasefire, while a momentary pause in hostilities, serves as a stark reminder that geopolitical power is no longer monopolized by the West.

However, as Ian Morris suggests, history is not static. The patterns of dominance shift with economic power, technological innovation, and social structures. Today, the balance of power is tilting eastward. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), India’s burgeoning tech ecosystem, and the Middle East’s reassertion of its geopolitical importance through energy diplomacy all signal a changing order.

China, in particular, exemplifies this shift. With its economic clout, technological advancements, and military modernization, it has begun to challenge Western hegemony. Agreements are increasingly being made with Beijing in the driver’s seat. The gun, metaphorically speaking, is no longer exclusively in Western hands.

While much of the focus has been on the East and West, the rise of the Global South or "New South" is equally significant in shaping the future geopolitical landscape. Countries across Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia are stepping out of the shadows of dependency to assert their influence in global affairs.

For instance, the Global South’s demands for climate justice, equitable trade agreements, and reparative financing are gaining traction. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) exemplifies a concerted effort to create self-reliant economies and reduce dependency on Western markets. Similarly, nations in Latin America are leveraging their resources and proximity to the United States to negotiate better terms in trade and diplomacy.

The Global South’s voice is also becoming louder in multilateral forums. From the BRICS bloc’s expansion to include more developing nations, to calls for reforms in the United Nations Security Council, these countries are positioning themselves as equal stakeholders in global governance. This collective rise underscores a growing sentiment of solidarity among nations historically sidelined in international decision-making processes.

Unlike the unipolar dominance of the United States post-Cold War, or the bipolar tensions of the US-Soviet rivalry, the emerging global order appears multipolar. Regional powers like China, India, Russia, and even blocs like the African Union,BRICS and ASEAN are asserting their agency. This new era is characterized by strategic competition rather than outright dominance.

For example:

● Africa: Once a pawn in the geopolitical chessboard, African nations are leveraging their resources and youthful populations to negotiate better terms with global powers. The "scramble for Africa" is no longer one-sided.

● Technology: The global race for AI dominance and green technology is fragmenting control over innovation. The West no longer monopolizes technological advancements.

● Trade: With initiatives like BRICS’ push for a new reserve currency and the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), trade agreements are increasingly reflecting non-Western priorities.

Predictions: The Next "Gun Holders"

1. China and Asia: China’s economic and military rise positions it as a contender to hold the "gun" in global agreements. Asia’s broader resurgence, including India’s rapid growth, will further consolidate the region’s influence.

2. Digital Sovereignty: The power to control cyberspace and digital infrastructure may replace traditional "guns." Nations with strong tech ecosystems, such as the US, China, and emerging players like Israel and India, will dominate.

3. Resource-Rich Nations: As the world transitions to renewable energy, countries with rare earth minerals and green tech capabilities, such as Chile, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Australia, will gain significant leverage.

4. The New South: Countries in the Global South, leveraging alliances like BRICS and platforms like AfCFTA, will collectively shape a new economic order. Their push for equitable global governance and trade will redefine the rules of engagement.

As power shifts, the "gun" may no longer be the defining metaphor for global agreements. Instead, we have an opportunity to build a more equitable global order, one where negotiations are based on mutual benefit rather than coercion. This requires a commitment to inclusivity, innovation, and shared prosperity.

The lessons of history, as outlined in Why The West Rules, For Now, remind us that dominance is transient. The real question is not, who holds the gun next? But whether we can evolve beyond the need for one.

As we stand on the cusp of a new era, the choice between collaboration and coercion will define the trajectory of global geopolitics. Let us hope that history’s next chapter is one of shared progress rather than imposed dominance.

By Foster Awintiti Akugri , Contributor, Canadian Centre for African Affairs and Policy Research . He is the Head of Africa Business & Expansion, at The Innovation Village , and a Technical and Consultant, with the International Trade Centre