Beware of "Groundhog Day" Research

Today’s Groundhog Day and as the legend goes, if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, six more weeks of winter are predicted. Then Phil disappears for another year. It turns out that Phil’s accuracy rate is 47%. You’d be better off flipping a coin. OK, you’re right. It’s a groundhog after all! But more and more, brands expose themselves to “Groundhog Day” research.

In the world of brand and market research most research prognosticators do a really good imitation of a groundhog. They deliver research predictions and disappear. Making predictions tends to be a more frequent pastime than actually checking back on their accuracy.

Emotional engagement and brand loyalty metrics, on the other hand, always point the right direction to what people will actually do. And as our own annual test we examine how closely what we predicted matched up with actual market results, with a near-perfect accuracy rate.

This year’s predictions dealt with Donald Trump, Loyalty Leaders and Laggards, Craft Beers, Teen Retailers, Cheap Airline Tickets, Super Bowl advertisers, Fresh Food, and Trends for 2017. So tune in and find out – What Happened?

Oh, one other piece of advice: Beware of false prophets, rodent seers, or coin tosses. There are better, validated ways out there to help you weather any storm clouds that might take you by surprise. . . if conventional research predictions have forecast a mild “winter” for your brand.