Beware the Eye of the "I-Storm"!

Hello all,

Conditions in the tropics warrant this update!? Before getting to newly-named Idalia (pronounced ee DAL ya), would like to take a moment to reflect on the 1st-time ever that 2 "H" storms (one from each ocean) produced tropical storm conditions in the U.S. less than 3 days apart.? Grabbing most of the headlines was Hurricane Hilary hitting northern Mexico and delivering tropical storm conditions to southern CA and historic flooding for some.? You might have missed Howard hitting TX.? This is the named storm I was concerned about for Texas in my previous 2 updates.? Howard didn't have much time to take advantage of the record warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf.??

That might not be the case for Idalia!? Just a side note, more "I" storms have been retired than any other letter in the alphabet (recent examples are Iota, Ida, and Ian).? A storm has to deliver catastrophic damage to get retired off the list of names (at which time a new "I" name is selected).??

Idalia is no Ian!? Nevertheless, I think Ian slams into Florida near Steinhatchee on Wednesday as a high-end Category 2 hurricane with top winds at 105 mph.? Steinhatchee is a beautiful and fairly remote part of Florida between Apalachee Bay and Cedar Key on the Gulf Coast of northern FL.? Many years ago, my wife and I spent our honeymoon at Steinhatchee.? Storm surge likely to cause problems in this area, south to Crystal River.? Tampa makes a narrow escape (again!)? Because Idalia isn't expected to be a very large storm, I am not too concerned about inland areas such as Orlando or the Villages, but will carefully monitor.

A weakened Idalia will deliver very heavy rain to eastern sections of GA, SC, and NC, before moving off the NC coast Thursday evening.? A decent forward speed should help mitigate the flooding to an extent.? I've attached output from the HAFS (Hurricane Analysis Forecast System), which was developed by research work within the portfolio I help manage at NOAA.??

As always, please just get back to me with any questions you might have.? Hopefully, Idalia doesn't get any more powerful than what I've forecast, but bears watching!??

Meteorologically yours,

Ben