For better or for worse, Hong Kong is following lockstep with Mainland China in its approach to COVID-19 travel restrictions

Last week, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam said she expected the border with Mainland China to largely reopen in February of 2022 as the two governments continue to stick to their zero COVID-19 policies, and even as the financial hub is facing growing pressure from business lobby groups to open borders or risk losing executives and investment.

Whereas New York, London and Paris continue to open back up, and even Singapore is starting to open up to international travel, Hong Kong continues to tighten up quarantine and patient discharge rules to convince Beijing to allow cross-border travel.

Hong Kong requires hotel quarantine of up to 21 days for arrivals from most countries at the travelers’ cost. Those who test positive are immediately admitted to hospital regardless of their condition. Since last month, Hong Kong requires any positive case to spend a further 14 days in a designated facility after leaving the hospital.

Hong Kong closed its borders to non-residents in early 2020 at the start of the pandemic. The long closure has impacted businesses and residents. Yet the government has stood firm — repeatedly emphasizing that its priority is reopening its border with Mainland China, not with the rest of the world.

"Hong Kong's COVID-19 strategy is squarely tied with China," says Jimmie Jeremejev, managing director at LehmanBush. "At present, the simple calculation is that the more relaxed Hong Kong is on overseas arrivals, the less open Mainland China will be with it."

According to Jeremejev, part of the concern in opening up too fast with the rest of the world is practical. Though more than 60 percent of the population has been fully vaccinated, many received the Chinese Sinovac vaccine, which is questionable against the highly infectious Delta variant of COVID-19, meaning any opening up with the outside world means a huge proportion of the population will be exposed to the problems associated with Delta variant.

The other practicality is economic: Mainland China is Hong Kong’s largest trading partner.

Additionally, Hong Kong’s financial sector is increasingly buoyed by businesses from Mainland China, as seven of Hong Kong’s 10 largest IPOs this year were U.S.-listed Chinese tech companies seeking second or dual primary listings in the city. These included search engine giant Baidu and video-sharing platform Bilibili that raised a combined $6 billion USD in the first quarter of this year.

"People who think Hong Kong is somehow pressured right now to adopt to what other foreign governments are doing are misreading the 'tea leaves'," says Bobby Afshar, managing director at LehmanBush. "The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics are coming up, and distractions from Hong Kong or Macau are not going to be tolerated, especially COVID-19. It’s why the calculus at this point for Hong Kong is a February 2022 opening with Mainland China."