Better than Average: The Dunning-Kruger Effect in Marketing

Why does almost everyone think they are an above-average driver? Or parent or leader or marketer? Of course, this is statistically impossible, yet repeated research demonstrates proof of this phenomenon. Why?

Half the people in any field are better than average and top people in a field truly are experts. Add to these the bottom group - the quartile of the least capable. These folks believe they are above average because they lack enough expertise to recognize that they know very little. That's how you get the majority.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect, as this tendency is called, is one of the funniest of our mental biases. We love to laugh at Homer Simpson setting the nuclear power plant on fire by dunking a donut inside the reactor to increase the pastry’s size. And how about Michael Scott on the Office, Steve Martin as the Jerk, or Stephen Colbert’s satirical, self-obsessed pundit?

Examples of Dunning-Kruger in Marketing

A few examples of the Dunning-Kruger Effect that I’ve witnessed in marketing include:

• A CFO tells marketing leaders to reassign most of the marketing budget to product demos because rules-based attribution showed that demos had the best ROI.
• A marketing team creates a suite of sales enablement tools without ever talking to a single salesperson.
• A manager hires an amazing team then micromanages the heck out of them, causing half the team to quit.
• The product team insists their offering is better than anyone’s despite that fact that customers aren’t buying it.
• A marketer volunteers to lead a big project without having a clue what would be entailed. (Ah, this was me. Fortunately, a few capable co-workers stepped in to save things.)

We Are Not Immune from the Dunning-Kruger Effect

Before you assume that you would never fall into this unfortunate group, think again. Consider this: 80% of respondents in one study rated themselves as above-average drivers while another study found fewer than 1% rated themselves as “worse than average”. We are all subject to the Dunning-Kruger Effect in some areas of our lives. We know a lot! But it’s a fraction of what is out there.?

Some areas are more prone to this effect than others. Areas of highest risk are those where human brains struggle to understand (such as probability) and those closely tied to identity (such as leadership). People who have high status or who are perfectionists are among the most likely to overestimate their influence and capability. ?

Technology Amplifies the Dunning-Kruger Effect

Information technology didn’t cause the DKE, but likely has made it worse. Have you ever searched on a topic, skimmed a few articles, and confidently assumed “I got this”? “Search is not research”, said David Dunning, who with Justin Kruger described the behavior in 1999 at Cornell. And social media offers people both the motivation and the opportunity to position themselves as an influencer or a thought leader, sometimes based on the barest thread of experience.

Some people are concerned that some types of AI, such as a generative AI like Chat GPT, will make the Dunning-Kruger Effect a bigger problem. AIs only know what they’ve been trained on (sometimes it’s as little as your skimmed articles) and yet they can come across as experts. Headlines about AI hallucinations are becoming increasingly common. They would be funny except when they cause damage, such as when a chatbot fabricates product information thus misinforming customers.

Guarding Against Over-Confidence

Although the Dunning-Kruger Effect can pop up at any time, you can reduce its frequency and make its consequences less harmful.

Start with self-insight. Stay humble about your real level of expertise in areas where you think you might be above average. If you are a marketer, how much do you really know about business finance or sales? If you are a CEO or CFO, how much do you really know about marketing? Do other people tell you that you are an expert, or did you surmise this yourself?

Be wary of fearlessness in others. The appearance of confidence is not proof of expertise. Job candidates or advisors may appear overconfident and impressive during interviews, for example, but may be in that lowest quartile. And that quick response and peppy voice of an AI may obscure something ridiculous. Meanwhile, a display of doubt isn’t always a bad thing. The imposter syndrome is the opposite of Dunning-Kruger. A high degree of knowledge in a subject can cause someone to deeply appreciate how much more there is to learn or where risks are.

Solicit the expertise of others. For important decisions, seek out a plurality of opinions including those that disagree with you. Learn more, even if you think you know.

Foster a culture of transparency. Expose data sources and ask for methodology. Welcome stakeholder feedback. Ask how could I be wrong?? Be wary, act as though there is always a bit of information still out there that could change everything.

Homer Simpson’s famous expression is “D’oh!” To avoid his remorse, keep an eye out for the Dunning-Kruger Effect.