The best takes on Omnicom-IPG merger | Publicis’ Snoop ‘top’ Dogg? | US Tech/Media stock record highs | Murdoch’s Succession drama

Welcome to TrinityP3 for FIVE. A curated newsletter of the five things the TrinityP3 team thinks you need to read this week.

Our goal with TrinityP3 for FIVE is that in five minutes of reading on a Sunday you can get up to speed, feel more informed or even get a head start on your week by looking ahead.

And don’t forget you can sign up to the email version of the newsletter here or the LinkedIn version here. We have also launched an experimental AI audio edition here.

This week’s curator is Nic Christensen , Senior Consultant, TrinityP3.

December 15, 2024

THE FIVE

1. OMNICOM TO SWALLOW IPG – GAME TO PLAY OUT IN 2025

This is the global US$13 billion merger which launched a thousand op-eds and even more LinkedIn think pieces.?

Here’s the five most interesting takes we saw (or in the case of Steve’s piece were involved with):?

• Stephen Wright in Mumbrella – questioning whether Omnicom is chasing a Christmas sugar high but may face radical weight loss (read redundancies) in the new year.?
• Ivan Fernandes on LinkedIn is well worth a read for his analysis of the price Omnicom is paying.?
• Colin Lewis looks at the merger from the view of retail media. His piece is then picked up by Nick Manning who argues the merger is driven by the surge in first-party-based channels that do not need traditional agency structures.
• Thinkerbell’s Adam Ferrier asks how many clients have rung either Hold Co this week and said re. the merger: “I’m so glad you guys have merged, we really need their complementary skill set.”
• Ben Shepherd argues the deal is more about Omnicom + IPG becoming like tech company Applovin than Accenture. (Nic: Ben is always worth a read, but I’d argue there’s a world of difference between a software/tech business and a services business like Omnicom/IPG)?

Why it matters (NC): Greater minds than mine have already written and said more on this than I could say, but I worked closely on the Nine-Fairfax merger in 2018 (Australia’s biggest media merger). I can say from experience that business deals on this scale require focus and will divert attention of much of the combined leadership for the next year or two.?

As TrinityP3's Stephen Wright has raised this week: what problem does this solve? It’s an important question and one the management teams on both sides of the deal would do well to focus on and articulate a clear answer to for their clients, staff and other media stakeholders (they will all be watching).?

2. MERRY CHRISTMIZZLE FROM PUBLICIS GROUPE – AS OMNICOM GOES ‘SHOPPING’

In the collaboration you didn’t have on your 2024 bingo card, Publicis Groupe CEO Arthur Sadoun last week reflected on the year and wished the company’s employees worldwide a happy holiday season with the help of “2024’s Olympic hype man,” Snoop Dogg.

As well as season’s greetings, the first video, posted last week, sees Snoop Dogg make some suggestions about the business, most notably with a logo change.

Arthur Sadoun then this week launched another video talking about what the merger means for the market and how Publicis was focused on “creating a category of one”.?

Why it matters (NC): With my comms hat on can I just say hats off to Publicis for how they have done both videos.?

Re. last week’s video, getting Snoop is a serious flex. The message Publicis Groupe clearly wants to send is that it’s the biggest of the Holding Cos (congrats btw). Being number one is an idea built and perfected by Martin Sorrell during his WPP days. The question here for Publicis and also Omnicom/Interpublic, as Stephen Wright made the point this week, is does being the number one Hold Co matter anymore, and how many clients/brands require that scale and heft??

Then there was Friday’s video which sees Sadoun seeking to reframe the competitive landscape around “three big holding companies” (ouch, sorry Havas) and presenting a vision of how Publicis will respond to their competitors’ merger. Personally I think both videos are a masterclass for business leaders in how not to take yourself too seriously but also how they can now use video to get their message out to stakeholders internal and external.?

3. SHAPIRO: TECH/MEDIA STOCKS ON A HIGH BUT WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

Futurist and Media Cartographer Evan Shapīro has finished the year with a final map for 2024 of the Media Universe. In it he notes the combined value of 126 companies is $22.6 trillion.?

That’s good news right? Except $16.5 trillion, or 73.3% of that value, is dominated by Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft and NVIDIA, the six trillion dollar death stars. That leaves only $6 trillion for the other 120 companies.?

Why it matters (NC): Shapiro’s piece is worth a read (note: paywall but he’s worth it) as he notes companies like The New York Times, Reddit, The Trade Desk, Spotify and Netflix, along with Meta, Amazon and Apple, are all finishing the year at record high values. The question is many of the death stars are cashed up, could consolidation be around the corner??

4. NEWS CORP FACES ITS OWN REAL-LIFE SUCCESSION DRAMA

In news straight out of an episode of Succession, the latest twist in the fate of the Murdoch empire has seen a Nevada court rule against Rupert Murdoch in his attempt to amend his family’s trust.

First reported by The New York Times, the ruling means that the trust will remain unchanged for now, with the four eldest children – Lachlan, James, Elisabeth, and Prudence – getting an equal share of control in the company after Rupert’s death. The proposed changes would have seen a larger share of control go to Lachlan.

Why it matters (NC): This story has everything. Fiction and reality have now blended, including the incredible anecdote that the death of Logan Roy on the TV show Succession forced the family to review their own PR plan for when Rupert Murdoch does eventually die.?

History teaches us not to bet against Rupert, who is appealing the decision, but as it stands the quote of the week (which isn’t new) goes to Paddy Manning who quoted an analyst saying: “It’s fair to assume Lachlan gets fired the day Rupert dies.” The implications of this battle, regardless of who wins, will be big for the media across the US, UK and of course Australia.?

5. CAN AUSTRALIA MAKE META PAY?

This week the Albanese government responded to Meta’s refusal to continue paying media companies under the News Media Bargain Code.?

The proposal sees Meta boss Mark Zuckerberg facing a potential levy which would force tech giants Facebook, TikTok and Google to fund journalism and has the potential to raise over $1bn over the next four years.

Why it matters (NC): I’ve worked on this policy area over a number of years (see disclosure) and this proposal is an interesting one. In other markets, such as Canada, Meta has pulled all news off their platform rather than pay for content.?

As Elizabeth Knight in The Sydney Morning Herald notes, this proposal sees Australia “go nuclear” in order to force Meta to comply with the Australian laws. The government has anticipated Meta’s response to the Media Code and moved to change the incentive.?

For marketers who spend on Meta there will be benefits from forcing the tech giants to have trusted news sources on the platform. I don’t know about you, but in the past two years I see less and less quality content (be it news or family posts) on my Facebook feed and more and more dross (random viral videos and click bait). This proposal is a win for both media and marketers, but also society.?

Disclosure: Nic worked closely on lobbying/comms around the Media Code for both Nine and SBS during his time at Head of Comms for both organisations. Should the current proposal go through some of his consultancy clients may benefit financially.

THINGS THAT CAUGHT OUR ATTENTION?

Nathan Hodges , Managing Director ANZ, TrinityP3?

Google’s announcement of a “mindboggling” quantum computing chip certainly caught my attention this week. It’s hard to overstate what a breakthrough this is, in a field that no one has managed to crack for 30 years. And as with every tech advance, anyone who says they know what happens next and how long it will take is just guessing, and it will be the second-order effects that take everyone by surprise. Hold on to your hats everybody.

Kylie Ridler-Dutton , Senior Global Consultant, TrinityP3?

I don’t think anyone would even have to ask why this piece on the global poaching crisis matters. I love the “creative collaboration, involving numerous talented individuals and agencies across multiple countries” element, and of course the cause.

Anton Buchner , Senior Consultant, TrinityP3?

This Mi3 piece highlights how the proof is in the pudding – or should that be the Candyshop. MCoBeauty drives a +286% sales uplift across BIG W, with 157,000 new customers. One of those being my daughter, dragging me into the beauty section.

Darren Woolley , Global CEO, TrinityP3?

Great to see my personal favourite biscuit climb two places on the ranking from last year and terrific use of media relations to make your brand consumption into a news story at this time of year. Now where is that pack of double-coated Tim Tams I had stashed?

Lydia Feely , General Manager, TrinityP3?

I love the phrase “nostalgia washing” and how brands still need to find a connection.

Nick Hand , Senior Consultant, TrinityP3??

More client-side layoffs, as reported by Mi3, (many of the headcount from their marketing department). This will again raise that old debate about whether it’s kinder on the people affected to happen pre-Christmas or post-Christmas. Also, is this decision pre-empting some government curtailing of gambling advertising??

WHAT WE’VE BEEN UP TO

This year TrinityP3, Business Director ANZ, Ellie Angell , has given numerous talks about her experience as a trans woman, the objectives of which are to raise awareness and understanding.?

Every session has been overwhelmingly positive; and in the past week the response she received from her session with Bastion was a highlight. You can contact Ellie if you wish to discuss her running a similar session in your business (agency, client-side or media sales).

WHAT MADE US LAUGH

With the news of Omicom’s takeover of IPG making headlines everywhere (see above),? Mark DiMassimo has taken to LinkedIn to let the world know that in response, his business will be stepping aside to make room for the new mega-agency.?

The founder and chief of agency DiGo (DiMassimo Goldstein) said the agency “enjoys independence, and our clients would prefer we weren’t in mega-merger meetings, shopping for islands, or unavailable due to multi-week tax planning retreats”.

He did end on well wishes, hoping that the two agencies enjoy the many happy years – eer, quarters – ahead.

AND FINALLY?

We would love your feedback on the TrinityP3 for FIVE. Please email [email protected].