Best Picture Predictor on Oscar Night - and the 5 Times It Couldn't Crack the (Hollywood) Code

The Best Picture race at the 2024 Academy Awards may not be much of a race anymore with the major unions, the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild, and the Screen Actors Guild, already pointing to “Oppenheimer” as the night’s biggest winner.

Union Problems

However, all three unions are usually far from perfect in their Best Picture predictions on Oscar Night. Of the 22 Best Picture winners in the 21st century, the PGA got it right 15 times, the DGA 14 times, and the SAG only 12 times.

All three unions were wrong at the 2005 Oscars with the PGA and DGA flying high with “The Aviator” while SAG looked “Sideways” for the winner. Nobody had their money on “Million Dollar Baby.” It happened again in 2017 with the PGA and DGA going gaga for “La La Land” while SAG made it no secret that they preferred “Hidden Figures.” Nobody shone the spotlight on “Moonlight.” (And neither did the confused Best Picture presenters, Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway.)

Best Acting Doesn’t Mean Best Picture

A much better barometer for the eventual Best Picture winner comes from Oscar night itself. So winning which category translates best to a win in the final Best Picture category?

Not the Best Actor. Only 2 times in the past 22 years has the Best Picture also starred the Best Actor (for “The Artist” and “The King’s Speech”).

And the Best Actress category hasn’t fared much better. Only 3 times in the past 22 years has the Best Picture also starred the Best Actress. And that has happened twice in the past three years with “Nomadland” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

The Best Oscar Predictor

It’s no contest. The categories that are the best at predicting the Best Picture come from the Best Screenplay categories. Seventeen times in the past 22 years the Best Picture benefitted from the Best Original or Best Adapted Screenplay. (Eight times from the Best Original Screenplay and 9 times from the Best Adapted Screenplay.)

It makes sense. After all, isn’t a rousing and inspiring story with smart, dynamic dialogue the main reason why any film deserves the Best Picture honor? Most of the time. But not all of the time.

Screenplay Consolation

The Best Original Screenplay (and to a lesser extent, the Best Adapted Screenplay) is often considered the consolation prize for the Best Picture award. It’s like winning Miss Congeniality at the Miss Universe pageant. It’s like the Oscar voters saying, “Really love your story. Very innovative. But it doesn’t mean your movie will win the big award…”

If neither of the Best Screenplays led to the Best Picture, you’ll often find that these scripts were perhaps too innovative or too “outside the box” of what the Best Picture winner should be.

Innovation is often rewarded in the “lesser” awards, but the Best Picture award is traditional and the enduring symbol of the entire motion picture industry in that particular year. And the Academy doesn’t like to mess with that.

So now let’s look at the five times since 2002 that the Best Screenplay winners did not foreshadow the Best Picture win.

2003 – Chicago vs. The Pianist & Talk to Her

The Best Adapted Screenplay winner, "The Pianist," certainly held the keys to a huge Best Picture victory. After all, it was a harrowing World War II film based on the memoir of a Holocaust survivor. And it had a Best Actor winner in Adrien Brody.?

Was it the Roman Polanski factor? He was a producer on the film—AND a wanted fugitive from the US justice system over a long-standing statuary rape conviction. But that couldn't be it. He still won Best Director that night.

And never mind the much-talked-about “Talk to Her,” the Best Original Screenplay. It was written by the great Pedro Almodóvar… but it was written in Spanish. Best Picture? Not a chance. (You have to be a “Parasite” to win a Best Picture Oscar with a foreign language...)

So why did "Chicago" win Best Picture? Well, it did come into the night with the most nominations with thirteen. But really, it's about Rule #1 in Oscar voting: Hollywood loves to celebrate itself. Okay, so it's not a movie about movie-making. But it's a big, brash musical about scandal and fame—and ain't that Hollywood?

2005 – Million Dollar Baby vs. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind & Sideways

"Million Dollar Baby" was already money in the bank when it came time to announce the Best Picture. Hollywood loves boxing movies and here was a punchy weeper with a twist (the boxer is a woman!) and a tragic ending (she dies in the end!). Plus Hilary Swank won Best Actress. And Clint Eastwood won Best Director.

Sorry, the wine-swilling, road trip movie, "Sideways," (the Best Adapted Screenplay winner) wasn't going to pop the champagne for Best Picture. It was much too small.

And you can forget the Best Original Screenplay winner, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind." A romantic sci-fi tragicomedy? Starring that Ace Ventura goofball, Jim Carrey? It was much too complicated. Too manic. Too heartbreaking. Much too... everything.?

Never mind that the cult classic is now considered one of the best movies of the past 25 years. Boxing is simple. You punch each other until the bell sounds. That sounds like a winner.

2012 – The Artist vs. Midnight in Paris (& Moneyball)

That's right, "The Artist" won Best Picture. Did you see "The Artist?" And if you did, will you ever see it again?

Well, remember, Rule #1 in Oscar voting? That's why it won. Of course, the movie about making movies is going to win. It doesn't matter if it's virtually silent. And starring unknowns. And in black and white. And... in French (?).

Speaking of French, "Midnight in Paris" is a talkie that actually takes place in France. It was also the Best Original Screenplay winner and the third writing award (and fourth overall) for controversial filmmaker, Woody Allen. It follows Rule #1A in Oscar voting: it's a movie about… writing… movies.

(My Best Picture money, twelve years later, is still on Adapted Screenplay nominee, "Moneyball," by Steven Zaillian ("Schindler's List") and Aaron Sorkin ("The Social Network"). It did the impossible. It made baseball boardroom statistical analysis sound exciting.)

2018 – The Shape of Water vs. Get Out

Yes, "The Shape of Water" won Best Picture. Well, Hollywood does love a love story. Call it an adult fairy tale... with an aquatic leading… man-fish. And it won the Best Directing Oscar.?

Perhaps the best film of the year should have been the mind-bending horror satire, "Get Out," the winner of the Best Original Screenplay. Or was it too innovative? Or too outside the box (or fish tank)??

No, the problem is that it's a horror movie. Hollywood never gives the big prize to a horror movie.

So the Best Picture winner was given to "The Shape of Water." And I guess some things... like falling in love with a scaly sea creature... just can't be explained.

2021 - Nomadland vs. Promising Young Woman & The Father

“Nomadland” had history on its side on Oscar Night with Chloé Zhao winning Best Director becoming only the second woman to do so while also becoming the first woman of color to win that award. And it starred the beloved Best Actress Frances McDormand. And who doesn’t want to hear a victory speech by Frances McDormand?

But more importantly, “Nomadland” won the Best Picture during the Covid-19 pandemic. It was a sparse movie about grief and the damaged American dream during a time when the damaged world was collectively grieving.?

It didn’t matter if there was a “promising young woman” seeking vengeance or a “father” faltering on the fringes with dementia. “Nomadland” had momentum and it unintentionally captured the 2021 zeitgeist.

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So will the 2024 Academy Awards provide another Best Picture surprise? We'll have to wait until Oscar Night. But I agree with the major unions and think "Oppenheimer" already has the winning formula.