BEST Choice?? - ICE Vehicles Vs EVs Vs HYBRID - how is the Landscape shaping up?

BEST Choice?? - ICE Vehicles Vs EVs Vs HYBRID - how is the Landscape shaping up??

Abstract :

The Technology, Markets and User Adoption for aiming at GREEN Revolution will keep on happening at various rates in the ICE to HYBRID to EV markets across. The facts about main drive for this transition is the Carbon Footprint, the comparison has to be neutral with the reality check for the technology evolution, the costs and timelines for commercialization, ecosystem governance across geographies, and hence the adoption rates getting balanced. In conclusion, the technology of EV is here to stay and HYBRID might be the first phased step to reach the next step towards the dream future of 100% EV adoption.

Context :

There is a huge amount of debate and views expressed in Technology perspective, end-user convenience/benefits perspective, and adoption perspective by the comparison between the existing landscape of ICE (IC Engine) Vehicles with the completely Electric Battery Powered Vehicles (EVs) with the already-existing-but-not-so-adopted-and-now-making-entry HYBRID Vehicles. The aim of this article is an attempt to bring in some apple-to-apple comparisons for the benefits and shortfalls of these Technologies already on the horizon and how the market is shaping up for the years to come.

Carbon Footprint for ICE Vs EV Vs HYBRID

Sharing some research and perspectives in this space

1. All-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) typically produce lower tailpipe emissions than conventional vehicles do, and zero tailpipe emissions when running only on electricity. Tailpipe emissions are only one factor in considering a vehicle's life cycle emissions; gasoline and electricity?fuel pathways?also have upstream emissions to consider, which include extracting, refining, producing, and transporting the fuel. Estimating?cradle-to-grave?emissions must account for both fuel-cycle emissions (also known as "well to wheels") and vehicle-cycle emissions (material and vehicle production as well as end of life). The combined emissions from vehicle and fuel production through vehicle decommissioning (i.e., recycling or scrapping) are referred to as life cycle or cradle-to-grave emissions.

Ref : https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html

2. Cleaner Cars from Cradle to Grave ->

3. The following article has been floating around, which triggered major debates across - sharing it just for reference ..

An Apple-to-apple Comparison

When we compare ICE to EV an apple-to-apple comparison needs to be done .. it’s called as cradle to grace analysis?

The use of EV crosses over the C footprint against ICE vehicles in 2 years .. (accounting for excavation of the oil to conversion to petrol to transportation to the car tank for ICE vehicles and creation of electricity to transit through grid to the car battery for EV) … EV starts higher on Carbon footprint but eventually becomes greener in true sense after 2 years of use ..

For hybrid vehicles - the efficiency of the increase moves up from say (a sample for Toyota Hyryder) from 19 to 28 km/ liter of petrol filled - 42% (9 km over 19 kms original) - but even the carbon footprint for both?

a) 19 km (equivalent petrol) and?

b) addition petrol + 9km of equivalent electricity has to be added for an apple-to-apple comparison => which might skew the %age for the hybrid vehicle to be not so “effective or between EV and ICE vehicle .. and bit below EV”?

There are the following good things - from a convenience/usage point of view for hybrid?

1) end-use efficiency is increased - so cost-effective?

?2) the technology is established (say by Toyota) for considerable years - and hence stable?

3) pricing - already comparable?to?EV in the same bracket (Hyryder Vs Nexon - 20-22L)

4) no plug-in required (say for TOYOTA hyryder) - no external charging required?

5) no “range anxiety” - you can use it as a plain ICE vehicle?

The negative aspects are?

1) has both petrol + Lithium - fire-prone systems / entities onboard - needs to be more careful about safety than ICE and EV?

2) since both the drive trains are existing onboard - the weight of the vehicle increases by @ 20% - but gets compensated by the increase in the efficiency?

The success of HYBRID Vehicles :

There are some deeper reasons for EV or for that matter the hybrid not being successful earlier in the Global context - which is the natural pull of the existing?established ICE players - they don’t want to lose their markets and “cash cow products in ICE space and want to keep on minting money with the costs sunk in those projects before they change the technology and hence the production lines + whole supply chain + distribution of products + educate the end uses @ the new EV / hybrid vehicles + keep facing debates + policing issues of the govt for the adoption of the new vehicles => so they are and having been playing “wait and watch” game .. Its heard that for one of the Indian 2W OEM - they will keep on continuing producing 90% ICE and only 10% EV as a policy - whatever is getting claimed as the “adoption of EVs by 2030 by the Govt claims”?

The Govt would play the balancing act and tweak the policies as per the “building contexts” .. The agencies like certification + policing agencies follow the same “approach”?

By the way - there are no mandates/penalties or incentives?for the industry to keep producing or stop producing carbon footprint by their “shear existence for the products they are making - it’s beyond the auto / ICE / EV industry” - so as long as, they are not penalized for producing larger (to be measured) C foot print or incentivized for reducing it - they have no drive for them to contribute?or affected by this debate about green revolution .. this will continue till Govt brings the Carbon Credit polity and start levying Carbon Tax equivalent to the contribution of each Industry - things will keep on “getting more talked/discussed than actually contributed” by all the industry - including the auto industry??

HYDROGEN as FUEL :

There was a mention of the hydrogen car Mirai in larger forums 2-3 months back - again from Toyota stable - which is further a future technology - likely to mature and commercialized in 3-5 years horizon

This vehicle costs Rs 55L and might be too expensive to manufacture for now for the common consumers..?

The conversion to get hydrogen from either water or air - to get it distributed and fitted to the hydrogen vehicle - works out to be costly and less efficient - the electricity generated power the a) charging of the battery or b) becomes the source of electricity for the EV drive train for the hydrogen vehicle .. so it’s lesser efficiency (energy and Caron footprint both) wise than the EV .. we are using energy from hydrogen to power the EV as an additional step??

Toyota Prius Price: Toyota Prius price starts at ? 45.43 Lakh. The price of Hybrid (Electric + Petrol) ...

COST Comparison :

The costs of EV will remain higher by @ 20% than ICE vehicles - till numbers are reached and continuity is built .. it’s a chicken and egg situation .. the hybrid is a further complex technology hence would be costlier for the OEMs who have still to l master?it?.. Toyota becomes and exception and being ahead of the curve - will be dominating this hybrid market and come out as a winner?eventually?

They have strategically “not reduced prices of their existing established brands?like Prius” - but collaborated with Maruti (and Maruti understands this game and is playing along instead of taking the costs of EV supply chain/production and taking Tata Motors head-on?with Nexon)?

Maruti and Toyota bring the same vehicle manufactured with their own labels - Grand Vitara and Hyryder - with a new price tag - to break the market and take on Nexon at the price bracket of Rs 20L ..?

The FUTURE in the HYBRID Space :

If you can see - knowing the volatility and prematurity in the markets - the foreign largest OEM (GM, Ford, Honda, Suzuki etc) players are NOT playing in the Indian markets and waiting to get this settled over years and then make the entry - Toyota keeping limited risks and entering though Maruti as an established Indian player ..?

More things to happen in the hybrid space moving forward?2-3 years to be watched?carefully ..?

Conclusion :

In my humble opinion (based on my limited knowledge)?

1) Hybrid is and has been indeed the right solution for moving towards green in a phased manner?

2)?Retrofitting existing vehicles will help the - storage of pollution immediately and getting the benefits of the EV / hybrid in a faster way - to get the adoption targets aggressively?

Note : The views shared are mostly in the Indian context, and could be extended to the Global markets

References :

1. My earlier LinkedIn Article for ready reference: Is HYBRID Car a solution for Indian Context? .. Does that intrigue your mind??

https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/does-intrigue-your-mind-hybrid-solution-indian-context-kulkarni/

2. Toyota Urban Cruiser Hyryder vs Maruti Suzuki Grand Vitara : https://www.carwale.com/compare-cars/toyota-urban-cruiser-hyryder-vs-maruti-suzuki-grand-vitara/

3. Toyota Hybrid System -? https://youtu.be/XFVd_fCiO88

4. Toyota Hybrid from end user point of you - https://youtu.be/3m5j8nJrMc8

5. Maruti Suzuki Grand Vitara - road mile test - https://youtu.be/GnH3514qtD4

6. Honda City Hybrid - https://youtu.be/c2I2TqWg6gg