Bengal Election 2016: The Muslim Factor

The share of Muslims in Bengal is one of the highest in the Country. With a base of 27%, Muslims play a crucial role in numerous constituencies across the State. Out of the 20 districts in Bengal, in 12 of the districts the Muslim share of population is greater than 20%. These 12 districts contribute to 172 out of the 294 constituencies. If one considers districts with greater than 33% of the voters being Muslim, this comes down to 81 out of the 294 seats. Either way, Muslims form a significant proportion of voters in many Seats to significantly influence the overall election result.

In 2014, Trinamool won a large proportion of the seats with a relatively low base of 39.8% (2014). Until then, no party won an election in Bengal without 48% of the votes. The low base yielded a large number of seats  mainly on account of an exemplary performance by the BJP which won nearly 17% of the vote. Assuming a Left+Congress alliance, the combined vote share would be the same as Trinamool. However, In terms of seats, the Trinmool Congress would still be comfortable with 176 assembly segments because of the manner in which Congress votes are distributed across the country. That said, even a small anti-incumbency swing (on the base of 2014 results)  of 2.1% in favour of Left+Congress would push the Trinamool to below 148 seats (the majority mark) and force it into alliance conversations with the Congress and probably even the BJP. Therefore, these thin margins make the Muslim vote even more critical. In 2014, Trinamool had about 35% of the vote share (CSDS) amongst Muslims. Therefore, every 10% point increase in share would yield nearly 3% additional vote share neutralizing any loss in vote share due to anti-incumbency.

Mamata Banerjee has long considered Muslim votes (along with Scheduled Caste votes which together form about 51% of Bengal’s voters) as a critical piece of her election strategy in Bengal. One of the first decisions once she came to power was offering reservations to more Muslims under OBC reservations. She had promised recognition to about 10000 madrasas of which less than 200 had been recognised as of last year. Over the last few months, Mamata has been actively reaching out to the Muslim population like sharing dias with Siddiqullah Chowdhury whose past track record inspires no confidence to secular minded people. The biggest challenge for Ms Banerjee is the fact that the condition of Muslims hasn’t improved significantly since she has come to power. For example, in 2013-14, only 6% of students in Colleges were Muslim (Population share is 27%). Convincing these voters would therefore be a huge challenge for Ms Banerjee.

The Left-INC collaboration starts with an advantage in the sense that they together had 54% of the Muslim vote in the 2014 election. It is likely that the collaboration between the two parties will attract even more Muslim voters, particularly those who are unhappy with the Trinamool thereby boosting the alliance. On the other hand, should these parties fight independently, Muslims voters are likely to be split across all the 3 parties with Trinamool likely to win the largest share as it is likely to be seen as the probable winner of the election.

The strategies for the 3 parties is clear, Trinamool will need to continue to focus on attracting Muslim voters with a plank of greater economic progress. The Left will have to present itself as a likely winner with a new vision for Bengal and mission for specific voting segments including Muslims. Presenting itself as a strong contender will automatically attract the voters of dissatisfied Muslims and thereby propel the Party to the winning position. In case of the Congress party, being an ally with the Left has a lot of value as that would further consolidate Muslim votes behind it. 

The BJP is on a weak wicket in Bengal and its only hope lies in one or all the alliances playing the Muslim card too aggressively and scaring educated Hindu voters. This could help it retain many of the upper caste hindu voters who voted for it in 2014 and deliver the 15-20 seats it was leading in 2014. It can then hope that these 15-20 seats can act as a leverage over the Trinamool during Government formation.

The competition for Muslim vote will intensify over the next 3 months as all the 3 left of centre parties actively woo these voters to either expand or consolidate their voting base. The BJP on the other hand would hope to use this open wooing of Muslim votes to consolidate the upper caste Hindu vote thereby becoming an important player in government formation later. Each party should however be careful not to play with fire, Bengal has had little communal disturbances for the last 40 years and encouraging negative forces for power has always turned out to be a huge disaster.