Ben Stokes’ Wager – and what it means for Entrepreneurs

Let me start this week by introducing you to two rather different characters. Benjamin Andrew Stokes, current captain of the England cricket team, and Blaise Pascal, 17th Century French mathematician, physicist, inventor and writer.

At first glance, the two gentlemen have little in common. To the best of my knowledge Blaise Pascal was not an advocate of ‘Bazball.’

But maybe they do – because both were gamblers…

On June 16th Ben Stokes took a risk – a calculated risk or a foolish gamble, depending on your perspective. England had won the toss and batted in the first test. With half an hour to go on the first day, they were 393 for 8 – and with Joe Root still at the crease. Logic – and more than a century of convention – demanded that they bat on. Keep the Aussies out in the field: tire their bowlers on the first day of a five-match series.

Instead, Stokes declared. He wanted four overs at the Australian batsmen that night. The chance to have one – or both – of the openers back in the pavilion was too much to resist. As most people will know, England didn’t take a wicket – and subsequently lost the game. One down, four to play – and by the time you read this, you’ll have a good idea of how the 2nd test is going as well.

Blaise Pascal’s wager was on a rather higher plane: the existence of God.

Pascal argued that human beings wagered their lives on the existence of God – and suggested that a rational person would believe in God and live his life accordingly. If God didn’t exist, then yes, he’d lost all that time in church, but if God did exist, he’d hit the jackpot – eternal salvation.

Live your life as if God didn’t exist, and if you were right, you’d saved some time – and the money you would have spent on those good works. But if he did exist, then you’d lost out big time. Eternal damnation, with no chance of parole…

Do entrepreneurs make a bet?

Of course, they do. Maybe not with their eternal soul – but certainly with their working lives.

Do you want an example? Me.

There I was, pushing breakfast around my plate in Newport Pagnell Services. But with a job: a reasonably well-paid job. A company car in the car park. Two young children and a mortgage. And – damn it – with 40 clearly visible on the horizon.

The safe option was to finish my breakfast, get back to work and ignore the small voice whispering in my ear. ‘Something has to change, Ed…’

To admit to myself that while ‘something had to change’ I had no idea what that change was. So there was only one sensible option: tell the small voice to keep quiet, drive down the M1 to my first appointment and look forward to turning 40. And then 50. And 60…

You all know the decision I took: you all know what happened. But supposing I hadn’t had the belief to make that bet?

I’d have carried on with my job. Probably switched companies two or three more times. Driven a succession of company cars. Eventually retired…

Instead, I joined The Alternative Board – and founded TAB York. There were plenty of days – and plenty of three o’clock in the mornings – when that didn’t look like one of life’s great decisions. But I stuck at it: gradually built the business, met some amazing people…

And then I made another bet. From TAB York to TAB UK. ‘Welcome back,’ whispered three in the morning. ‘I’ve missed you…’

But again, we built the business – and the number of amazing people I’ve met and been privileged to work with has increased exponentially.

What was really at stake in both those bets?

Money? Of course.

My family’s security? Yes, for sure.

My ego? Unquestionably.

But in both cases, I had to know. Yes, I was taking a risk. But there was a risk in doing nothing as well – and that is true for every entrepreneur.

As many of you will know, there’s a question we ask in TAB: ‘what is the risk in doing nothing differently?’

We all know the answer: in a business world that is changing more rapidly than ever you risk being left behind. But there’s a far bigger risk: that you’ll never know.

‘Don’t die wondering’ is one of today’s most common adages. If I’d (metaphorically) driven down the M1 to that first appointment I would certainly have retired wondering. If I’d said ‘no’ and stayed with TAB York I’d have spent an awful lot of meetings thinking ‘what if…’

We all know there are no certainties in life – especially in today’s world. If you start a business there’s no guarantee it will work. If you take the plunge and expand your existing business there’s no guarantee it will pay off.

Doing either of those things will always be a bet. But you can stack the deck in your favour. Load the dice. Give yourself a very significant edge.

I refer, of course, to joining the Alternative Board. With the exception of marrying my wife, the best decision I have ever made.

Do I ever think back to those early doubts? Explaining the risks to my family – then lying awake at three in the morning?

Of course I do. Every entrepreneur does.

But I know one thing with absolute certainty. The biggest risk I could ever have taken was not to take the risk.