Belt and Road at Ten

It was all because of an insect larva. Early peoples covered their bodies with animal skins and plant fibers until someone in what is today Henan province in China noticed that the cocoons of the moths which lived on the mulberry could be spun into cloth. It was soft, smooth, and could breathe, plus it was great at taking and holding the color of fabric dyes. In short, it was a super fabric, superior to anything else, and only able to be produced in China where the mulberry silkworms lived and could be cultivated. Soon, there was a transportation network stretching from China in the east to Turkey and Egypt in the west, some 6,400 kilometers (4,000 miles). Later other Chinese inventions like paper and gunpowder would travel across the Silk Road as well, and possibly bubonic plague as well.

Xi Jinping cited the Silk Road as a historical model for his "One Belt, One Road 一带一路 Yīdài Yīlù" initiative. The name for China in Chinese is 中国 or "Middle Kingdom." Xi wanted China to return to its place as the center of the world (later shifted to the "Belt and Road Initiative") in what Xi called the "project of the century." Xi announced the plan during a visit to Kazakhstan, a nation which would play a key role in the Belt and Road (more on that later). As of 2023, there are about 154 countries which have signed MOUs which are reported by Xinhua, the official news agency of the People's Republic of China. Some of the countries included in the Belt and Road are far from the original Silk Road, including all of Africa, Argentina, Cuba, Costa Rica, Estonia, Jamaica, New Zealand, Peru, Portugal, Samoa, Uruguay, and Venezuela, among others. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank was created in Beijing to finance infrastructure projects. Additionally, Beijing established the Silk Road Fund, with $40 Billion earmarked specifically for funding BRI projects.

With regard to infrastructure investments, the BRI has been mostly successful. Chinese loans and donations have sponsored hundreds of billions of dollars in trains, roads, and other infrastructure. From Brazil to Kenya to Laos, its programs have spread. Over the last decade, China has become many developing nations' major creditor and key investor. Many nations have received improved roads and other forms of infrastructure.

However, not all projects have been what one might consider successful; Kenya's Standard Gauge Railway was envisioned to connect the landlocked nations of East Africa like Uganda, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo with the Indian Ocean via Kenya. However the current railway is only complete between Mombasa on the coast and Suswa at the foot of the dormant volcano of the same name. As a result, even though passenger trains are fully booked and freight trains generally run at or near capacity, the project is still losing money. Kenya has $4.7 billion in debt for the project, mostly owed to Chinese banks.

Khorgos Gateway, in Kazakhstan, was a key point on the "new Silk Road." Approximately at the midpoint of the rail lines from China to Europe, it was designed to serve as a special trade zone where locals could travel in a sense to China and buy Chinese products on display in a "duty free" zone. But according to the Telegraph, China has used the extraterritorial location as a point to arrest ethnic Kazakhs who have run afoul of Chinese law, sometimes for things as innocuous as using a prohibited social media app, having the wrong history books, or joining prayer meetings. While not as numerous as the Uyghurs, Kazakhs also live in Xinjiang, a region Beijing is keen to pacify and stabilize.

The BRI was conceived as a method to bridge China to a new phase of embracing the global economy. Manufacturing jobs in China were drying up, and the BRI was a host of investments designed to increase the overseas purchase of Chinese goods, while using Chinese technology and labor to build the necessary infrastructure. It was also an attempt to increase global acceptance of China's currency, the renminbi, as payments were required to be made in it.

But according to AidData, one third of BRI projects have serious issues, including labor exploitation, environmental violations, and corruption scandals, prompting public protest. Astana's concrete columns remind everyday of a China-funded light rail transportation development that stopped when corrupt officials were convicted. A shale oil power plant in Jordan will lose $280 million (￡222.7 million) yearly and raise electricity prices. Pakistanis have attacked Chinese engineers working on BRI projects due to anti-Chinese sentiment. In Batam City in Indonesia there have been riots related to public objection to the Eco-City industrial and tourism area on Rempang Island, where a factory for Chinese solar panel manufacturer Xinyi Group is scheduled to be built.

To some degree, the problems today with the BRI are the result of early excess enthusiasm by Chinese companies and banks. Chinese lenders tendered offers to corrupt regimes, and some of those investments have failed. Banks are now retooling their efforts, guided by President Xi's "small but beautiful" criteria, emphasizing returns and stability. In Zambia, Chinese government creditors worked to restructure its debt when default seemed likely, although it has not written off any debts thus far.

Can this be corrected? With many western economies on shaky ground, it seems difficult to mount much of an alternative for developing nations through institutions like the World Bank. But for the time being for most developing countries, China's money, with all its caveats, is the only game in town.