Belonging in London: Insights from Camden and Westminster

Belonging is not just a feeling—it is a fundamental human need. Decades of research have highlighted the vital role that social connection, including belonging, plays in both physical and mental health outcomes (Holt-Lunstad et al., 2010, 2015). Belonging, as part of the broader term social connection, encompasses various dimensions such as loneliness, social isolation, and support (Brickau et al., 2024). It represents one powerful avenue through which social connection is manifested. In large, dynamic cities like London, the challenges of urban life often heighten feelings of isolation, making the cultivation of belonging even more crucial.

The Importance of Social Connection

Social connection in all its forms is essential to our well-being. Studies consistently link robust social ties to reduced anxiety, lower depression rates, and increased longevity (Leary & Baumeister, 1995). Loneliness and social isolation have been shown to relate as strongly to health as smoking or obesity (Pantell et al., 2013; Holt-Lunstad et al., 2010). In fast-paced urban environments like London, where populations are transient and lifestyles fragmented, promoting a sense of belonging could be a critical lever in improving both individual well-being and broader community cohesion.

The London Context: Why Belonging Matters Here

London's unique vibrancy, where people from countless backgrounds converge, makes fostering connection both essential and challenging. Research shows that individuals who feel a strong sense of belonging in their local communities experience better mental health, reduced stress, and higher life satisfaction, although the relationships are far from straightforward (Ziersch et al., 2005). Without these connections, Londoners are just as vulnerable to social isolation and its associated adverse health outcomes (Mayor of London, 2022). It’s no surprise that a lack of connection in a city like London, despite being packed to the brim with people, can lead to social isolation. The stakes are higher in Camden and Westminster, where diversity is both a blessing and, at times, a logistical challenge.

Annecy Behavioral Science Lab and the Neighbourly Lab

At the Annecy Behavioral Science Lab, we are deeply committed to improving social connection, particularly through advancing the tools used to measure belonging and its related constructs. Our partnership with Neighbourly Lab has been a pivotal step in our joint mission to improve belonging across London. Neighbourly Lab’s pioneering work in this field, especially within the urban context, positions them as leaders in promoting social connection. Together, we are exploring what drives belonging in the boroughs of Camden and Westminster. The insights from this collaboration represent just a portion of what we are discovering. Stay tuned for more on Neighbourly Lab’s ongoing work in this area.

The 2021-2022 Survey of Londoners

The data analyzed in this study comes from the Survey of Londoners (2021-2022), a comprehensive survey that aims to understand the lived experiences of residents across social, economic, and demographic dimensions. Conducted by the National Centre for Social Research and commissioned by the Mayor of London, the survey collected over 8,600 valid responses, providing a robust dataset that reflects the city's diversity. The survey's stratified random probability design ensured broad representation across socio-economic and ethnic groups, capturing key insights into community cohesion, social integration, and well-being. By examining variables such as perceptions of local area harmony (LocGeto) and other community involvement measures, we explored how belonging differs between Camden and Westminster.

Analysis Approach: Using Trees to see the Forest

To analyze the factors driving belonging, we employed Conditional Random Forests (CRFs). This machine learning technique is well-suited for capturing the complex, non-linear relationships between variables in large datasets. While we explored other methods, such as k-nearest neighbors and logistic regression, CRFs, however, are champs at dealing with missing data and providing a balanced view without getting too excited over small patterns. But remember: when we say predictors, we’re talking in data-speak—we can’t make sweeping causal claims from this data, no matter how tempting it might be.

Key Predictors of Belonging: Camden and Westminster

Our CRF analysis identified the top five predictors of belonging for both Camden and Westminster. Below is a summary of the key factors influencing belonging in each borough:

• Camden: LocGeto, Crimedecile, NbhdPull, RelyClsCont, CurrTen12 (Figure 1)

• Westminster: Daybankact, LocGeto, ContactFreqNeigh, Occupation, EDU1DV (Figure 2)

These initial lists of predictors doesn't provide the full picture. Let’s dive deeper.

Camden: Cultural Engagement and Safety

One of the strongest predictors in Camden was agreement with the statement "people from different backgrounds get along well" (LocGeto). This variable captures residents' perceptions of how cohesive and inclusive their community is. Another key predictor was Crimedecile, which reflects perceptions of local crime levels. Interestingly, feeling too safe (or too unsafe) isn’t great for belonging—it’s the Goldilocks principle, where moderate perceptions of safety make people feel more connected.

Westminster: Professional Networks and Education

So, you might be reading these predictors for Camden and thinking, “Well, DUH! Of course, perceptions of crime and whether people get along matter for belonging.” In Dutch, we have an expression about a cow and looking at a specific part of its anatomy (trust me, you don’t want to Google that one. Really, don’t). The point is, everything seems obvious in hindsight. But here’s where it gets interesting: not all boroughs share the same predictors, so the DUH factor drops dramatically. What works for Camden might not apply in Westminster, and that’s what makes this data valuable—it helps uncover these borough-specific nuances that we wouldn’t spot without digging deeper.

Meanwhile, in Westminster, the data tells a different story. Belonging here is tied to more professional factors—like whether people used a banking app that day (Daybankact). Yes, apparently checking your bank balance makes you feel more connected (to the community or to your money, we’re not sure). Educational attainment (EDU1DV) also played a major role—so the more diplomas you have on your wall, the more likely you are to feel at home in Westminster.

The Broader Social Context: Camden and Westminster in Focus

Camden, known for its cultural history and street life, relies on community engagement and safety to foster belonging. Meanwhile, Westminster’s professional and educational hubs create a different dynamic, where workplace and academic networks are essential to social cohesion. Recent public debates on crime and gentrification further highlight the need for balanced social policies that promote inclusivity and safety.

What We’ve Learned—and What’s Next

Through our deep dive into the predictors of belonging in Camden and Westminster, we've gained valuable insights into the unique factors that shape social connection in these two vibrant boroughs. Camden thrives on cultural engagement and community safety, while Westminster’s belonging is more tied to professional networks and educational attainment. These findings highlight that belonging isn't a one-size-fits-all concept—it varies dramatically depending on local contexts.

But this is just the beginning. Our collaboration with Neighbourly Lab has revealed so much more than what we’ve covered here. Their continued work will provide even deeper insights into what fosters belonging in communities across London. The potential for change is enormous, but so is the need for more accurate, frequent, and nuanced measurements of belonging and social connection. The Neighbourly Lab is on top of this.

But this is also where we urge policymakers to step in. Investing in better tools for measuring belonging is not just about improving data—it's about creating stronger, more connected communities. With more targeted interventions, better contextual understandings, and regular data collection, we can move from a snapshot view of belonging to a full-length feature, tracking how communities evolve and respond to policies. By refining our approach to measurement, we’ll be able to design interventions that genuinely improve people’s lives and help London—and cities like it—become places where everyone feels they belong.