The Bellwether Index?
Midcap Momentum Moderating
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12-04-24 - Stock Indices are showing minor signs of divergence with the S+P Midcap 400 remaining below its November 25th (cyclic) peak while tech stocks and indexes extended rallies into their early-December cycle highs.? If the IDX is to validate that late-Nov cycle high, it should not give a daily close above that November 25th high.
Small cap and mid-cap stock indexes, as described in early-October ’24, were expected to mimic the action of June/July 2024 and lead an overall stock rally into late-November ’24.?
At the same time, the Russell 2000 was targeting a retest of its November ’21 peak near 2460/QR (~2440 in the cash index).
Both indexes rallied into November 25th** with the Russell 2000 attacking that upside target. Both initially sold off and are now bouncing.? At the same time, the NQ-100 and related stocks like MSFT are rallying into Dec 2 - 6th, when daily & weekly cycles portend a top.
(**IDX, RUT/QR & DJTA rallied 11 - 14% in Oct/Nov ‘24 while DJIA, SP & NQ only rallied 7 - 8%.)?
Though it has fulfilled all of the upside timing targets, topping precisely on November 25th, the S+P Midcap 400 would not signal a reversal lower until a daily close below 3300/IDX.
The S+P 500 identified a key convergence of daily price & time indicators that is being fulfilled.? Leading into this week, it already had weekly resistance identified at 6161 - 6194/ESH, with multiple indicators grouped at 6161 - 6172/ESH.?
Its early-week low added another - the Intra-Week PLLR - at 6163/ESH.? That range was corroborated by daily LHRs at 6173 - 6178/ESH.
Though these levels only represent 3 - 5 day and 1 - 2 week upside objectives, they could provide additional clues if they hold and spur a reversal lower.
That would be reinforced by a peak on December 4 - 6th, the latest phase of a ~1-month low-low-low-low-(high; Dec 4 - 6th) Cycle Progression that has timed intermediate turning points in the first 3 - 4 trading days of each respective month.? A 15-day low-low-(high) Cycle Progression concurs.
This is in sync with normal intra-month trend and trading structure in which a market will often move in one direction for the first 2 - 4 trading days of a new month… but then reverse without triggering an intra-month trend signal in that direction…?
For now, the trends are up and should be respected until proven otherwise.? It would take daily closes below [reserved for subscribers] to signal a 1 - 2 week (or longer) top is in place.”??? -- December 5, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
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In early-October, the Weekly Re-Lay explained how and why stock indexes should see an overall rally into late-November ’24 with multiple peaks (and quick sell-offs) along the way.? This scenario - and its corresponding turning points - have been detailed along the way:
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A multi-week peak was forecast for October 17/18 and projected to spur a quick drop (first ‘Danger Period’) into early-November.
Stocks obliged.
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A second peak was projected for November 11/12th, with a quick sharp drop into November 18th forecast (second ‘Danger/Panic Period’).
Stocks obliged.
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A more significant peak has been forecast for November 22/25th - in the S+P Midcap 400, DJTA & Russell 2000.? (Tech stocks and the NQ-100 pinpointed Dec 4 - 6th as the time for a divergent peak.)? Multi-month upside range-trading targets were identified at ~3400/IDX, ~17,600/DJTA & ~2460/QR.
So far, stocks have obliged with the S+P Midcap 400, DJTA & Russell 2000 peaking on November 25th while attacking their multi-month upside range-trading targets at ~3400/IDX, ~17,600/DJTA & ~2460/QR… fulfilling decisive objectives and pivotal cycles that have been in focus these past two months.
As of yet, however, confirmation of those tops has not materialized.? The December 9th/10th action could change all that.? (The 12/07/24 Weekly Re-Lay will elaborate.)
Key indicators - like the daily & weekly 21 MACs/MARCs and daily/weekly trend indicators - are revealing when a new (and potentially broader) ‘Danger Period’ is more likely.
That is also corroborated by key cycles & indicators in Bonds (interest rates), the US Dollar (forex), Gold and oil markets (energy).
See corresponding publications for details.
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Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
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