Behind the serious shortage of packaging substrates: upstream materials and equipment become the bottleneck for expansion

Under the dual pressure of the interference of the epidemic and the rebound in demand, the semiconductor supply chain is under pressure, and the shortage of production capacity exists in almost every link of the industrial chain, and it cannot be solved in the short term.

Among them, the shortage of packaging substrates has lasted for a year, and related companies have also launched expansion plans as early as 2019, but the demand has suddenly increased, and the shortage of supply is still serious.

Jiwei recently reported in the article "FC-BGA package substrates have a delivery period of up to one year, and the core material ABF will continue to be out of stock until 2022". Due to the emergence of the epidemic, the demand for LSI chips such as CPU and GPU has doubled, thus driving Large-size FC-BGA substrates have been in a state of shortfall in production capacity throughout last year.

Industry insiders pointed out that from the current market situation, the shortage of large-size FC-BGA substrates is the most serious, and other conventional packaging substrates are also out of stock. The delivery period is basically three months to six months, and some are even one. year.

Domestic manufacturers have accelerated their breakthroughs and expanded production. In fact, from 2011 to 2018, packaging substrate technology has been continuously developing, but the market demand is basically stable. Therefore, the entire industry has not undergone large-scale expansion.

Benefiting from the development of 5G, AI, autonomous driving, big data and other industries, the demand for high-end chips is strong. The market demand for packaging substrates began to develop rapidly at the end of 2019, and the specifications are gradually upgraded, with larger sizes, higher layers, and stronger functions. , The demand for more complex and high-value IC packaging substrates has grown significantly.

Beginning in 2019, Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers have begun to announce expansions one after another. In terms of ABF substrates, Taiwanese manufacturers including Xinxing Electronics, Jingsus Technology, and AT&S Chongqing Plant have begun to expand production, while domestic manufacturers such as Shennan Circuits and HOREXS are focusing on BT substrates.

In fact, several domestic manufacturers such as Shennan Circuits and HOREXS have also begun to deploy the FC-BGA substrate business using ABF as the medium. According to people familiar with the matter, Yueya has reached the proofing stage, and the progress should be the fastest. It already has the capacity and only needs to expand production. Several other companies have plans to build factories, and they are still in the research and development stage.

HOREXS announced on March 29 that through years of investment and technology accumulation in the field of FC-BGA substrate production technology, the company has adopted the MSAP/SAP process, and has now formed an integrated standard process such as large, medium and small batch manufacturing, which is the development of the country's integrated circuits. Make a contribution.

According to reports, Huajin Semiconductor is one of the first companies in China to develop and realize small batch production of FC-BGA substrates using ABF as the medium. It has accumulated rich experience in the development of key materials for high-density and large-size FC-BGA packaging substrates. Using the SAP process, Huajin Semiconductor successfully prepared an 8-layer large-size FC-BGA substrate and passed the electrical test.

In terms of BT substrates, industry insiders pointed out that domestic packaging substrate manufacturers have made breakthroughs in some product lines with the growth of domestic chip design companies and packaging factories, and some companies are serving global customers.

Industry insiders further pointed out that Zhuhai Yueya's core technology via bar technology has achieved a global leader in RF amplifiers, has already entered Apple's suppliers, and is also a global leader in digital currency packaging.

At the same time, Shennan Circuits has made great breakthroughs in MEMS, sensor substrates, storage substrates, radio frequency substrates and other fields, and HOREXS has also made good breakthroughs in the field of memory substrates. As long as the above-mentioned manufacturers expand production, the shortage of BT substrates can be solved.

Upstream materials and equipment have become a bottleneck, and the shortage will continue. However, it is not easy to enter the packaging substrate field from PCB. IC packaging substrates belong to a business with large investment and heavy assets, and there are great barriers to capital, technology, and customers. high.

According to people familiar with the matter, new entrants may require considerable capital investment, as well as a long period of technology accumulation, team building and customer certification. Judging from the time taken by Shennan Circuits and Xingsen Technology from R&D project to mass production of packaging substrate products, it will take at least three years for domestic manufacturers to enter the packaging substrate field before their products can enter sales.

Therefore, compared with the new entrants, the manufacturers that have already made breakthroughs in the market can expand their production to solve the problem of industry shortages more quickly.

According to Taiwanese media reports, Taiwanese carrier board manufacturers Xinxing, Nandian, and Jingshuo have placed orders for ABF substrates until 2023, and orders for BT substrates are also full until August.

It can be seen that the market demand for the packaging substrate industry is strong, and the competition pattern will be good in the next few years. Major manufacturers are also more active towards expansion, and the prospects are promising.

However, the reality is that the domestic substitution of package substrates is progressing slowly, and the process, materials, and equipment are all subject to overseas. This is also the resistance of domestic manufacturers to expand production, improve process capabilities, and reduce costs.

Industry insiders said that at present, domestic manufacturers have gradually improved their technological capabilities, but materials and equipment need to be imported.

In the production process of the substrate, materials such as copper foil, copper clad laminate, prepreg, solder mask, photoresist, etc. are needed. These materials are currently monopolized by Japan and the United States, and there are very few domestic substitutions, especially ABF materials.

"In fact, for the invention of upstream materials and equipment, domestic manufacturers have already made arrangements. For example, Shengyi Technology has been able to produce BT resin materials. However, due to the high risk, the recognition of the terminal is relatively low, and the packaging factory and the terminal are reluctant to try and switch. Domestic products.

People familiar with the matter pointed out that the equipment is the same and can only rely on imports, but the delivery time for key equipment including exposure machines and laser drilling machines has reached one year.

Industry insiders pointed out that based on the current delivery time of equipment, it takes about one year from the time an order is placed to the actual introduction of the equipment. Therefore, even if the production is expanded at this stage, the new production capacity will not be opened until 2022 at the earliest.

It is worth mentioning that it takes a very long period of ramp-up time from production to full production. Taking Shennan Circuit as an example, the package substrate factory built by its IPO fundraising project has been connected for trial production in mid-2019 and is expected to reach production by the end of Q2 in 2022.

HOREXS pointed out that, compared with PCB, packaging substrates are relatively more precise due to product precision, process difficulty, and customer requirements, and the climbing time of the factory will be relatively longer, usually 1-2 years.

At present, judging from the expansion progress of major manufacturers, the substantial release of new production capacity will be in 2022, and the lack of stock in the market may be relieved after 2023. Therefore, the overall market situation this year will still be in short supply. .